8 hot seats to watch in the Johor polls
FMT’s election jury: Azmi Hassan, Oh Ei Sun and Awang Azman Pawi.
JOHOR BAHRU: As Johoreans go to the polls today, many observers expect Barisan Nasional to bulldoze its way to another decisive election victory four months after notching up a landslide win in Melaka.
A low voter turnout, less to do with the Covid-19 pandemic and more because of a jaded electorate, has worked against Pakatan Harapan in Melaka as well as in Sarawak in December.
The big question remains whether one of the three coalitions (BN, PH, or Perikatan Nasional) or even Pejuang, would form the next Johor state government.
The answer may lie in some highly-anticipated contests in eight hot seats.
Political analysts Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya weigh in on the likely winners.
Gambir
Former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s decision to not defend the seat he won in 2018 surprised some observers, with PN’s Solihan Badri seeking to fill the Bersatu president’s shoes. Solihan, a former executive councillor, will be challenged by BN’s Shahrihan Jani, PKR’s Naim Jusri and Pejuang’s Suraya Sulaiman for the seat. Muhyiddin had won with only a 3,088 majority in 2018, hardly a landslide. While it is a Malay majority seat, nearly 40% of voters there are Chinese, giving them a huge say on who takes Gambir.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: BN
Oh: PKR
Awang Azman: BN
Perling
Former deputy defence minister Liew Chin Tong will seek to maintain DAP’s hold on this seat after PH’s landslide win with a 19,533 majority in 2018. Following several surprise losses in some seats in Melaka and Sarawak, Liew must ensure he can keep Perling in his party’s hands, all the more as he is the Johor DAP chief. One cause for concern for Liew would be the rapturous response Najib Razak received from the Chinese community when campaigning last week for BN’s candidate, Tan Hiang Kee. PN’s Khoo Siaw Lee of Gerakan is also vying for this seat, which has an even breakdown of Malay and Chinese voters.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: PH
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: 50-50 PH/BN
Larkin
The clash between Muda’s Rasid Abu Bakar and PKR’s Dr Zamil Najwah Arbain for this Malay-majority urban seat will set tongues wagging, with BN’s Md Hairi Md Shah and PN’s Zulkifli Bujang no doubt seeking to capitalise on the split in opposition votes. Pejuang’s Mohamad Riadz Mohamad Hashim and an independent candidate are also throwing their hats into the ring. All six candidates are fresh, young faces including PN’s Zulkifli, a former TV host and ex-aide to home minister Hamzah Zainudin, who will seek to retain the seat Bersatu won on a PH ticket in 2018.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: BN
Oh: 50-50 Muda/PKR
Awang Azman: 50-50 PKR/BN
Kempas
A crowded seven-cornered contest awaits in Kempas with Nornekman Osman, son of the late Osman Sapian, seeking to continue his father’s work in the constituency, but on the Pejuang ticket. It will be no easy task for Nornekman: his rivals are BN’s Ramlee Bohani, PN’s Faizal Abdullah and Johor Wanita PKR chief Napsiah Khamis , along with three independent candidates. Osman, the Johor menteri besar for 11 months, had won with a strong 9,178 majority in 2018, on a PH ticket. It is a Malay majority seat with a sizable Chinese electorate.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: 50-50 PN/PKR
Oh: 50-50 Pejuang/BN
Awang Azman: BN
Bukit Kepong
Former menteri besar Dr Sahruddin Jamal won this seat in 2018 on a PH ticket with a slim 1,273 majority. He seeks to retain his voters under the PN banner in a four-cornered fight against Pejuang’s Taib Md Suhut, Muda’s Nurafiqah M Zulkifl and BN’s Ismail Mohamed, who is probably Sahruddin’s most formidable rival. Ismail is known locally as he was the assemblyman for the seat from 2013 to 2018 when it was known as Bukit Serampang. He did not defend the seat in GE14 as he challenged Muhyiddin for the Pagoh parliamentary seat and lost.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
Machap
BN’s Abd Taib Abu Bakar had won this seat with a slim majority of 404 votes in 2018, but former state youth exco Onn Hafiz Ghazi will be seeking to win in Machap for his party with a bigger majority. Onn Hafiz will be challenged by PN’s Azlisham Azahar, Muda’s R Sangaran and former deputy minister Shahruddin Salleh, of Pejuang. Shahruddin, the Sri Gading MP, is also Johor Pejuang chief, giving him the responsibility to lead the party’s charge in its maiden election outing.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
Layang-Layang
Former education minister Maszlee Malik hopes to win this seat in his first election as a PKR member. Maszlee, formerly with Bersatu and Pejuang, has a good chance, given the slim majority of 364 votes won by Onn Hafiz in 2018. His rivals in this four-cornered fight are BN’s Haji Mutalif Rahim, PN’s Alagathiran Krishnan and Pejuang’s Ahmad Shafiq Othaman. But a cause for concern for Maszlee, who is also the Simpang Renggam MP, is that PKR failed to win any seats in Melaka and Sarawak.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: Too close to call
Oh: PKR
Awang Azman: 50-50 PKR/BN
Semerah
The Semerah seat was won by PKR with a mere 98-vote majority through Khuzzan Abu Bakar in 2018. Now he faces a five-cornered fight against BN’s Mohd Fared Md Khalid, PN’s Ariss Samsudin, Pejuang’s Mahdzir Ibrahim and also Putra’s sole candidate, Kamarolzaman Mohd Jidi. With 71% of voters comprising Malays in 2018, it will be interesting to see if Khuzzan is capable of retaining the community’s support, a factor that has been a glaring weakness of PH and PKR, and even more so after the Sheraton Move.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
JOHOR BAHRU: As Johoreans go to the polls today, many observers expect Barisan Nasional to bulldoze its way to another decisive election victory four months after notching up a landslide win in Melaka.
A low voter turnout, less to do with the Covid-19 pandemic and more because of a jaded electorate, has worked against Pakatan Harapan in Melaka as well as in Sarawak in December.
The big question remains whether one of the three coalitions (BN, PH, or Perikatan Nasional) or even Pejuang, would form the next Johor state government.
The answer may lie in some highly-anticipated contests in eight hot seats.
Political analysts Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya weigh in on the likely winners.
Gambir
Former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s decision to not defend the seat he won in 2018 surprised some observers, with PN’s Solihan Badri seeking to fill the Bersatu president’s shoes. Solihan, a former executive councillor, will be challenged by BN’s Shahrihan Jani, PKR’s Naim Jusri and Pejuang’s Suraya Sulaiman for the seat. Muhyiddin had won with only a 3,088 majority in 2018, hardly a landslide. While it is a Malay majority seat, nearly 40% of voters there are Chinese, giving them a huge say on who takes Gambir.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: BN
Oh: PKR
Awang Azman: BN
Perling
Former deputy defence minister Liew Chin Tong will seek to maintain DAP’s hold on this seat after PH’s landslide win with a 19,533 majority in 2018. Following several surprise losses in some seats in Melaka and Sarawak, Liew must ensure he can keep Perling in his party’s hands, all the more as he is the Johor DAP chief. One cause for concern for Liew would be the rapturous response Najib Razak received from the Chinese community when campaigning last week for BN’s candidate, Tan Hiang Kee. PN’s Khoo Siaw Lee of Gerakan is also vying for this seat, which has an even breakdown of Malay and Chinese voters.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: PH
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: 50-50 PH/BN
Larkin
The clash between Muda’s Rasid Abu Bakar and PKR’s Dr Zamil Najwah Arbain for this Malay-majority urban seat will set tongues wagging, with BN’s Md Hairi Md Shah and PN’s Zulkifli Bujang no doubt seeking to capitalise on the split in opposition votes. Pejuang’s Mohamad Riadz Mohamad Hashim and an independent candidate are also throwing their hats into the ring. All six candidates are fresh, young faces including PN’s Zulkifli, a former TV host and ex-aide to home minister Hamzah Zainudin, who will seek to retain the seat Bersatu won on a PH ticket in 2018.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: BN
Oh: 50-50 Muda/PKR
Awang Azman: 50-50 PKR/BN
Kempas
A crowded seven-cornered contest awaits in Kempas with Nornekman Osman, son of the late Osman Sapian, seeking to continue his father’s work in the constituency, but on the Pejuang ticket. It will be no easy task for Nornekman: his rivals are BN’s Ramlee Bohani, PN’s Faizal Abdullah and Johor Wanita PKR chief Napsiah Khamis , along with three independent candidates. Osman, the Johor menteri besar for 11 months, had won with a strong 9,178 majority in 2018, on a PH ticket. It is a Malay majority seat with a sizable Chinese electorate.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: 50-50 PN/PKR
Oh: 50-50 Pejuang/BN
Awang Azman: BN
Bukit Kepong
Former menteri besar Dr Sahruddin Jamal won this seat in 2018 on a PH ticket with a slim 1,273 majority. He seeks to retain his voters under the PN banner in a four-cornered fight against Pejuang’s Taib Md Suhut, Muda’s Nurafiqah M Zulkifl and BN’s Ismail Mohamed, who is probably Sahruddin’s most formidable rival. Ismail is known locally as he was the assemblyman for the seat from 2013 to 2018 when it was known as Bukit Serampang. He did not defend the seat in GE14 as he challenged Muhyiddin for the Pagoh parliamentary seat and lost.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
Machap
BN’s Abd Taib Abu Bakar had won this seat with a slim majority of 404 votes in 2018, but former state youth exco Onn Hafiz Ghazi will be seeking to win in Machap for his party with a bigger majority. Onn Hafiz will be challenged by PN’s Azlisham Azahar, Muda’s R Sangaran and former deputy minister Shahruddin Salleh, of Pejuang. Shahruddin, the Sri Gading MP, is also Johor Pejuang chief, giving him the responsibility to lead the party’s charge in its maiden election outing.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
Layang-Layang
Former education minister Maszlee Malik hopes to win this seat in his first election as a PKR member. Maszlee, formerly with Bersatu and Pejuang, has a good chance, given the slim majority of 364 votes won by Onn Hafiz in 2018. His rivals in this four-cornered fight are BN’s Haji Mutalif Rahim, PN’s Alagathiran Krishnan and Pejuang’s Ahmad Shafiq Othaman. But a cause for concern for Maszlee, who is also the Simpang Renggam MP, is that PKR failed to win any seats in Melaka and Sarawak.
Analysts’ verdict:
Azmi: Too close to call
Oh: PKR
Awang Azman: 50-50 PKR/BN
Semerah
The Semerah seat was won by PKR with a mere 98-vote majority through Khuzzan Abu Bakar in 2018. Now he faces a five-cornered fight against BN’s Mohd Fared Md Khalid, PN’s Ariss Samsudin, Pejuang’s Mahdzir Ibrahim and also Putra’s sole candidate, Kamarolzaman Mohd Jidi. With 71% of voters comprising Malays in 2018, it will be interesting to see if Khuzzan is capable of retaining the community’s support, a factor that has been a glaring weakness of PH and PKR, and even more so after the Sheraton Move.
Analysts’ verdict:
BN to win
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