Friday, July 28, 2006

US & Israel - Re-Entering Vietnams

The Israelis are not unlike their closest and probably only ally in this world, the USA. Their military are powerful and equipped with the best that money or, in the case of Israel, American aid can purchase. Their intelligence are legendary, especially that of the Israelis'.

But they are both callous towards civilians who aren’t of their nationality. They kill, murder and massacre their way through whatever national objectives they have. Both refuse to heed international conventions on conduct of war and humanitarian decency.

Today, even the once-admired USA has joined Israel in becoming international terrorists and pariahs in the eyes of the international community. The US has the super power to prevent the world people from hauling its war criminals to the International Courts of Justice, as Slobadan Milosovic was. It also protects Israel from that just fate.

But again, they are both alike in fighting a battle based on their past glories. When the Americans defeated the Iraqis in the first Gulf War, they did so with ease. In the second Gulf War, they thought it would be a breeze again, rolling their tanks into Baghdad, occupying and pacifying the Arab country for good, because Saddam Hussein’s military was no match for the hi-tech US forces with their ‘shock & awe’ capability.

The Yanks didn’t expect Saddam Hussein and his military strategists planning on an alternative war, namely minimum resistance against the superior US conventional forces, in fact disappearing away, but engaging them after, as insurgents. The world knows the current US standing in Iraq, making the Americans the laughing stock of the military world for not anticipating the enemy could and would change tactics to avoid their earlier mistakes and weakness.

Like Vietnam, the Americans will eventually go home with their tails between their hind legs. But will it take them 10 years like in Vietnam to realise they have lost the war? I reckon it may be just before the 2008 presidential elections when it will declare, as Bush previously did, that combat operations is over.

After the Israelis defeated the Egyptians, Jordanians and Syrians in 1967, they thought the Arabs were a useless lot, which was then true. They rested on their laurels, and while they did that, the Egyptians and Syrians were reorganising themselves. In 1973 the Arabs surprised them, and nearly won the war if not for massive American injection of planes, munition and other arms.

There were accusations of American pilots in Israeli uniform flying missions for the Jewish State though this wasn't and could never be substantiated. What we do know through the reading of memoirs and biographies have been that Israeli PM Golda Meir contemplated suicide when she thought Israel was losing. It must have been looking bad for an Israeli PM to consider that 'escape' avenue.

The American massive material and financial injection won the war for them, though we shouldn’t take away the credit from a better trained and more skilled Israeli military, including the daring exploits of a general named Ariel Sharon.

But it demonstrated then the Israelis were fighting an earlier war, and came really close to defeat, while the Egyptians learnt and readjusted. This assessment was what galvanised the Americans into forcing the Israelis to withdraw out of occupied Egyptian territory (seized in 1967) and bribing the Egyptians into a peace deal. The US extrapolated assessment of Egyptian capability was the motivating factor.

Israel then invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied the southern part for nearly 10 years. That was its Vietnam, completed with a My Lai as well in Sabra & Shatila. Eventually like the Yanks in Vietnam, it withdrew after suffering Hezbollah insurgent tactics. But it thought it knew the Hezbollah, so it recently launched a war against the Shiite militia, thinking it had all the answers.

But Hezbollah, like Saddam Hussein’s military, has also moved on and prepared for a new showdown with several years of planning to engage the Israelis in the way they are doing now. Though the Israelis now still have overwhelming power, it has once again encountered a ferocious Hezbollah who has employed new tactics the Israelis haven’t expected – well, the enemies can also and do move on.

The consequences?

Aljazeera television has reported that 13 Israeli soldiers had been killed during clashes with Hezbollah guerrillas in a south Lebanese village. Israeli medics reported heavy casualties.

For a small nation like Israel, 13 soldiers represent a significant number.

Al Jazeera also reported that Hezbollah fighters had foiled Israeli attempts to evacuate casualties from Bint Jbeil, 4 kilometres inside Lebanon. One Hezbollah source said: "Our men can hear the screams of their wounded calling for help."

Can Israel take this sort of attrition?

Now we know why Condoleezza Rice is now prepared to work out a ceasefire, though of course dilly dallying to Israeli terms, as Israel continue to slaughter Lebanese civilians. But it’s obvious that Israel cannot continue to absorb this sort of punishment, while Hezbollah is so fanatical about fighting the Israelis it doesn’t care about the number of deaths it’s likely to suffer.

Today the Sydney Herald Morning reported the following:

The Israeli Government will review its war plan after a string of military mistakes and a failure to prevent Hezbollah firing rockets into northern Israel.

Following a 24-hour period in which Israel suffered its heaviest losses and was forced to launch an investigation into an attack that killed four United Nations observers, there is growing concern that Hezbollah may emerge from the conflict intact, effectively meaning Israel will have lost the war.

The Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, has admitted that the scale of Hezbollah's response took Israel by surprise and that the military campaign is proceeding slower than expected.

"We are running a different kind of war than the wars in the past," he said on a visit to Israel's north. "It wasn't planned, but two weeks in and during the fighting the nation is trying to help parts of the home front that have turned into a battlefront."

The Israeli army has been criticised for failing to anticipate the extent of Hezbollah's fighting capacity, and the political leadership is under pressure to explain how the campaign will meet its aims of achieving a lasting solution to the threat of missile attacks on northern Israel.

A military commentator and expert on the first Lebanon war, Ze'ev Schiff, warned that Israel was failing to achieve its military goals and risked losing its status as a regional superpower

Like their American friends in Iraq, Israel has re-entered Vietnam.

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