Military Watch:

Did Iran Just End Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon? One Missile Barrage May Be All It Takes

Middle East , Ground

Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff

October-2nd-2024

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Israeli Merkava Tank on Lebanese Border

Major Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israeli targets on October 1 have according to multiple sources caused serious damage to the country’s military infrastructure, with the attacks launched under Operation True Promise 2 in retaliation for an Israeli attack on Tehran on July 31. 

The damage done by the operation has raised questions regarding whether Israel can still continue its ongoing invasion of neighbouring Lebanon, which had begun less than two days before the Iranian strikes were launched. 

Multiple sources have reported that the strikes targeted key air bases such as Hatzerim Air Base, where Israeli F-15s are based, as well as Nevatim Air Base which hosts all of Israel’s F-35 stealth fighters. Iranian sources have reported that the latter facility was “completely destroyed” with multiple F-35s lost. 

Reports have since emerged that missile strikes also targeted troop concentrations, including a particularly large concentration of tanks and armoured vehicles, which could further seriously complicate future Israeli offensives. 

Israeli F-35 with live GBU-31/B Bombs at Nevatim Air Base

Israeli and Western officials have widely highlighted the need for retaliation against Iran, which raises the possibility that the invasion of Lebanon will be pressed lower down the country’s list of priorities. 

The missile strike is expected to raise morale among Israel’s adversaries across the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansurullah Coalition forces in Yemen, various militia groups in Iraq, and a range of Palestinian militia groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. 

Footage of Palestinians celebrating the strikes, after a full year of intensive hostilities with Israel, has widely circulated. The impact on morale is considered particularly important following multiple Israeli successes in targeting the leadership of adversary organisations, including the assassination of Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah and other key Hezbollah and Iranian leaders on September 27 in a large scale bombing raid on his bunker in Beirut. 

Smoke Rises After 81 Ton Explosion From Israeli Bombing of Hezbollah Leadership

While the extent of the damage to Israeli ground forces remains uncertain, recent strikes are expected to at the very least seriously disrupt planned offensives into Lebanon. 

The loss of F-35s could be a particularly serious blow, as while the fighters’ stealth capabilities are of limited value in Lebanese airspace due to the lack of local air defences, Israel lacks any other fighters with comparably modern avionics and advanced sensors. F-35s provide a much greater degree of situational awareness than other Israeli aircraft, and are well optimised for targeting ground forces with complex networks of fortifications such as those of Hezbollah. 

The United States has accordingly from late 2023 taken steps to “accelerate F-35 weapons capabilities and increase spare parts supply rates,” surging supplies to Israel to allow its small stealth fighter fleet to generate more sorties against Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian targets. 

The loss of these assets, and possibly of F-15s as well, would undermine Israel’s ability to utilise its air power to facilitate advances into Lebanon. The nature of the Israeli response, and those of its close allies in Turkey and the Western world, remains uncertain.