Trump’s comeback? Singapore’s Temasek warns US election win could rock global markets

Trump’s comeback? Singapore’s Temasek warns US election win could rock global markets



Sipahimalani said this outlook contrasts with a scenario under Trump’s Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, where emerging markets might see better prospects. — Reuters pic

Tuesday, 29 Oct 2024 4:05 PM MYT


SINGAPORE, Oct 29 — Temasek International’s Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani has issued a cautionary view on the impact of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election.

He suggested that a second White House for Trump may not be as favourable for the global economy and financial markets as commonly believed.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg Television, Sipahimalani said, “The conventional wisdom is that a Trump presidency is better for markets,” highlighting expectations of lower taxes and greater deregulation.

However, he added, “as you look out to 2025, the picture is not that clear.”

Sipahimalani went on to say that a Trump administration could lead to slower global growth, which would directly affect US-listed companies, particularly those on the S&P 500, where about a quarter of revenues come from outside the US.

He warned that such a slowdown would have a ripple effect across the globe, potentially dampening overall economic momentum.

This outlook contrasts with a scenario under Trump’s Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, where emerging markets might see better prospects.

Further underlining his concerns, Sipahimalani predicted that a Trump win would likely bring a stronger dollar and higher interest rates than what would be expected under a Harris administration.

Such conditions, he argued, could unsettle investors and elevate risks in the markets.

“The tariffs are going to create uncertainty, which is never good for investment,” Sipahimalani noted, adding that this would be “negative not just for emerging markets but across the world” and ultimately lead to slower growth.

The Singaporean investment firm Temasek, one of the largest state-owned investors with a portfolio of S$389 billion (RM1.28 trillion), has recently increased its focus on US investments, announcing plans to deploy US$30 billion in the US over the next five years.

Despite this pivot, Sipahimalani foresees heightened volatility in 2025, suggesting that markets may become “choppier” than they have been in recent years.

He also warned of underestimated “tail risks,” referring to low-probability but high-impact events that could disrupt the stability investors have grown accustomed to.