Reverse Psychology? – US Intelligence Reveals How Russia Prepares To Invade Ukraine Within The Next 30 Days

Reverse Psychology? – US Intelligence Reveals How Russia Prepares To Invade Ukraine Within The Next 30 Days


Dozens of Ukrainian government websites, including the ministry of defence, were hit with a coordinated massive cyberattack on Friday (Jan 14). Hackers, suspected to be Russians, then left a message on the foreign ministry website – “Ukrainians! … All information about you has become public. Be afraid and expect the worse. It’s your past, present and future”.



Is Russian supremo Vladimir Putin preparing to invade Ukraine? Washington believes so because the cyberattack was not any ordinary cyberattack. After all, about 200,000 Russian troops are currently positioned along the country’s border with Ukraine. In fact, U.S. Intelligence said they saw signal of a ground invasion of Ukraine within the next 30 days.



Speaking to reporters at the White House on Friday, press secretary Jen Psaki said U.S. defense analysts had noticed as recent as last month (December 2021) coordinated social media misinformation to destabilize the Ukrainian government. She said – “The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February.”



Moscow, of course, has rubbished the White House’s revelation as nothing but information pressure. Russia said it is against war, and the statements by the White House was part of a psychological game – even lies – which if repeated often enough will become the truth. The Russian Embassy in the U.S. said Moscow prefers diplomatic solutions to all international problems.



If Russia refrains from invading Ukraine just to prove the U.S.’ prediction was wrong, Washington will win and can boast that it has succeeded in stopping Kremlin. But if Russia eventually invades Ukraine, Washington also wins and can claim that it was right all along about the Kremlin’s aggression. Could the cyberattack orchestrated by the U.S. as part of information warfare to trap the Russians?



However, Moscow may or may not invade Ukraine, depending on the concessions it could extract from the United States. President Putin may not wish to invade, but wanted the U.S. to think otherwise in order to force Washington’s next move. Any military movement from NATO or the U.S. could provide justifications for Russia to launch pre-emptive strike.



The U.S. will look extremely weak if it does not respond sufficiently – even if President Biden had no intention at all to retaliate militarily. During a 50-minute conference call on Dec 30, Mr Biden renewed a warning to Mr Putin that Russia would face “severe economic sanctions” if Moscow attacked Ukraine. But exactly what type if economic sanctions are open to interpretation.



Still, the burning question is whether the European Union or NATO will join the U.S. in the so-called unprecedented economic sanctions on members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. As the largest supplier of oil, natural gas and coal to Europe, Moscow could retaliate by shutting down the energy flows from Russia to the rest of the world – triggering an energy crisis.



If Putin strongly believes NATO will remain “No Action, Talk Only”, he would most likely invade Ukraine to not only boost his image as the strongman, but also to humiliate the military superpower U.S. as well as the “Sleepy Joe”. Putin cannot afford to waste any time as Washington-Moscow talks had reached a “dead-end” and saw no reason to continue them.



Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday – “While our proposals are aimed at reducing the military confrontation, de-escalating the overall situation in Europe, exactly the opposite is happening in the West. NATO members are building up their strength and aviation. In the territories that are directly adjacent to Ukraine, on the Black Sea, the scale of exercises has increased many times recently.”




As Moscow has pre-emptively prepared its justifications to invade Ukraine, Washington has also pre-emptively revealed how the Russian will start its invasion. Apparently, the U.S. Intelligence claims it has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct something called a “false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine.



Psaki said – “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.” As part of this false narrative, Psaki claimed that Russian proxies on social media are already accusing Ukraine of readying an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.



Hence, when Putin gives the order for the prepositioned Russian operatives to carry out a stealth attack on Russian-backed forces in Ukraine, Moscow could justify a Russian intervention by pointing to its prior accusation and blame the Ukrainians for the attack. Pentagon claimed it has evidence of “an operation designed to look like an attack on Russian-speaking people in Ukraine.”



In truth, since the collapse of Soviet in 1991, NATO has aggressively expanded eastward towards Russia. As early as 2018, Moscow has warned that the Aegis Mark 41 (MK-41) Vertical Launching System deployed by the U.S. in Romania and Poland could easily be converted to launch conventional or nuclear strikes deep into Russian territory.



That was why MiG-31 with hypersonic missiles, which could strike back at military bases in Romania in 4 minutes, are standing by in Crimea. If deployed in Ukraine, the MK-41 launcher, which is capable of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles, could strike Moscow in 4-5 minutes. Hence, Putin has described the NATO’s eastward expansion as a “red line” that poses security threats to Moscow.



Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – known as the Baltic nations – achieved independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and have become NATO members since 2004. Since 2002, Ukraine has sought entry into NATO, where the alliance’s “Article 5” clause states that an attack on one member country is considered an attack on all of them.



Regardless whether Russia has again revisited its playbook in 2014 with Crimea, the U.S. appears to be ill-prepared for the eventuality of an invasion of Ukraine. Victoria Nuland, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, has revealed that the U.S. has prepared 18 response scenarios in case Russia decides to invade Ukraine, as feared by the Western countries.



To show that he has other cards to play, Russia has deliberately floated the idea of military deployment to Cuba and Venezuela. By recreating the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, it would change the game entirely, putting tremendous pressure on the U.S. as the last thing it wants is Russian nuclear weapons in its backyard. Mr. Putin said last April – “Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, fast and tough.”



As a warning to the U.S., Vladimir Putin has personally suggested in November that Russia could deploy submarine-based hypersonic missiles within close striking distance of Washington. But it’s highly likely that Russia will launch a cyber-attack, not hypersonic missiles, against the U.S. if President Biden imposes economic sanctions.