The Indian Rupee has been performing badly against most world currencies including the USD. Recently the Indian Rupee fell past 90 Rupees to one US Dollar.
The Indian Rupee has been going down for the past FIVE years. Over the past FIVE years it has depreciated over 22% against the US Dollar. See the 5 YR chart below.
Worse than that over the past 10 years the Indian Rupee has depreciated 35% against the US Dollar. Here is the 10 year chart.
All this is happening under the Narendra Modi Dynasty. Modi became prime minister in 2014. Eleven years later the Indian currency has crashed past 90 Rupees to the US Dollar.
All this is happening because India has been steadily losing its productivity vis a vis its major trade partners. For the past FIVE years India has accumulated significant trade deficits. See the 5 Yr Balance of Trade chart below. India imports more than it exports. The trade deficit has gone past US$40 billion in 2025.
There is a lot of hype coming out of the Modi government. Indian domestic and foreign policy seems to be geared around shouting out that India is a world superpower. That India is the number 4 or number 3 economic superpower in the world. That India is a military superpower. That the Indian GDP now exceeds US$4.5 TRILLION. That the GDP is growing at 8.2 %. Bla bla.
There are some doubts being raised about all these claims - from within India itself. Some Indian critics say that the GDP growth rate may have been overstated by up to 40%!! That is 3.3%!! So the real growth rate is around 4.9%?
Other critics say that the Indian nominal GDP is closer to US$2.5 TRILLION - not US$4.5 trillion. An over statement by about 80% (2/2.5 = 0.80) !!
Granted all these figures are highly debateable. One of the criticisms is that the "Services" sector of the Indian economic data is very subjective and is manipulated (or bloated).
Here is a quick analysis by Joe the economist at Joe's Blog who makes informed observations about the economic situations of countries around the world.
My view is I do not see a happy ending for India - not in a long time.
Indian overhyped
ReplyDeleteChina overhyped
Russia can't even be hyped.
BRICS is overall overhyped.