China’s Quieter Nuclear Submarine Fleet Poses Growing Challenge to U.S. Navy Sea Control
Asia-Pacific , Naval
The U.S. Navy has perceived a growing challenge from the capabilities of the China's People's Liberation Army Navy’s submarine fleet, with the service entry of new generations of vessels, and the even faster development of new generations of armaments for the ships, having exacerbated this. A recent report by the Wall Street Journal highlighted the consensus in the United States that while the performance of Chinese submarines, and particularly their quietness, has improved considerably, the U.S. Navy has been hindered by a major shortfall in submarine production capacity. The report particularly focused on the ability of both countries’ submarine fleets to play major roles in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. The Chinese fleet’s capabilities have recently received growing attention following the unveiling of new classes of submarine launched hypersonic missiles, including the YJ-19 which has the potential to significantly increase the overall missile carriages of multiple submarines classes.
Although China’s armed forces have seen their capabilities surpass those of neighbouring Russia in recent years, the country’s submarine fleet remains behind those of both Russia and the United States in terms of its overall capabilities. Nevertheless, engaging the Chinese submarine fleet could pose much greater challenges than that of Russia due to its deployment alongside much more advanced surface and aviation fleets. Unlike Russia, which has not laid down a new destroyer for its Navy since the Soviet era, Chinese Type 055 class destroyers are widely considered to be the world’s most capable, while the country’s newest aircraft carrier the Fujian is considered the world’s only peer level challenger to U.S. Navy Gerald Ford class ships. The ability to deploy cutting edge attack submarines as part of strike groups with such advanced surface vessels, and under skies in which American anti-submarine warfare arrest will be particularly unsafe, thus makes the Chinese fleet especially challenging to engage. The fact that Chinese attack submarines also deploy much more diverse arsenals of hypersonic missiles is also a leading factor in their favour.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy commissioned its first nuclear-powered submarine, the Type 091 class, in 1974, with the ship class considered loud and slow even by the standards of its time. The gap in capabilities with the most sophisticated Russian and American ships was largely bridged with the service entry of the first Type 093 class attack submarines from 2006, and the enhanced Type 093A from 2015. The integration of air-independent propulsion systems onto the Type 093 class was a leading factor making them quieter than prior generations of ships, and allowing them to remain submerged for longer periods of time.
It is widely expected that the new Type 095 class attack submarine currently under development could provide the People’s Liberation Army Navy with a lead over the most capable American and Russian vessels, with the ship expected to integrate a range of new features such as magnetic drive technologies and Rim Driven Propellers not seen abroad. Recently commenting on the program, former U.S. Navy officer Christopher Carlson observed: "The Type 095 will be a very quiet submarine, which will complicate the situation." Senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation think tank Brent Sadler similarly warned that Chinese submarine technologies appeared to be making significant strides, making the ships more difficult to track.
Unlike the United States Navy, which exclusively deploys nuclear powered submarines, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy fields a complementary combination of nuclear and diesel powered ships. American analysts have projected that in the event of a major conflict conventional submarines may be relied on the defend the Chinese coast, while nuclear powered attack submarines are used to encircle and neutralise American forces in the far seas as the U.S. Navy tries to move more forces across the Pacific. U.S. Navy submarines are expected to be used for missile attacks against Chinese coastal areas, both to cut off logistics and to destroy critical infrastructure.
The American submarine fleet is expected to remain far below planned numbers, with the country’s shipyards able to build just 1.2 attack submarines per year, while the Navy would optimally be procuring the ships almost twice as fast at 2.33 per year. The defence sector is similarly well below the required capacity for servicing, with a very long backlog of ships that require maintenance. Availability rates fell to 67 percent in Fiscal Year 2023, as 16 of the Navy’s submarines were idle idle submarines were left idle in need of maintenance. These trends have raised the possibility that China could develop a capability lead, much as it already has in a wide range of areas from fighter aviation to quantum communications.
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