War in Ukraine: NATO and its allies must back off too!

War in Ukraine: NATO and its allies must back off too!

By Firdaus Daud




IF the only conclusion one can draw from the current Russia-Ukraine war is Russian leader, Vladimir Putin is a sociopathic, irrational bully who wants to conquer neighbouring countries to expand the “Russian empire”, one would have been short-changed.

Remember that Putin is rational and shrewd; an authoritarian leader. In his eyes, he sees an existential threat to his country because in the decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR), democratic and pro-West countries have mushroomed along the Russian border.

In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) despite Russia’s protests. Another expansion came with the inclusion of seven Central and Eastern European countries of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

With NATO membership, came its military installations and missiles closer to Moscow. In June last year, Ukraine became a partner (if not a member) to NATO.

In Putin’s words, if missiles were to be installed in Ukraine, they could hit Moscow within 10 minutes. There are no natural geological formations along the Russia-Ukraine border.

In a way, both countries share the same backyard. From Luhansk near the southeast Ukraine border, forces can travel 750km to Volgograd and cut off Russia from the Black Sea.



Pro-Russian separatists have held the part of Ukraine along the Russian border. Donetsk and Luhansk even held elections in an attempt to exercise the international right to self-rule, to align itself to Russia but the Ukrainian government in Kyiv and the US as rejected this as a Russian ploy.

Does all this justify the invasion? Definitely not, especially in today’s world order. The situation now is a kin to a young kid waving a bread knife at a bully’s door, saying that he has a new gang and the bully now is taking out his shotgun.

But why it is happening now?

Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has piled up its military might. Give Ukraine five to 10 more years and Russia would have had to fight hard.

Russia is Europe’s supplier of natural gas and energy costs are skyrocketing all over Europe. Why bite the hand that keeps you warm in winter? Of all these countries, Germany is affected most.

Germany wants to transition to renewables and has committed to shut down its nuclear plants. Natural gas is a big part of the transition, and Germany and Russia are on the precipice of commissioning the Nordstrom 2 project – a natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea connecting the two countries.

In the years that Angela Merkel was at the helm, Germany’s influence in Europe grew and often Merkel played a key role in bridging the interests of Europe and Russia.

The Green Party, being part of Germany’s coalition government, now lead on foreign policy and climate policy – and a key European nation finds itself between a rock and a hard place. (Apparently, the only thing Germany sent to Ukraine during the first week of the war was a field hospital and 5,000 helmets. Even Turkey sent predator drones and Canada put boots on the ground).

Historically, Russia has been the target of crippling sanctions for almost a decade. Its people had to suffer through massive inflation while Putin moved the country away from relying on the US dollar – not easy when its main exports (oil and gas) are predominantly priced in US dollars.

Why didn’t the disincentives work? Because, for Russia, it is an existential issue, not of conquest or economics.

Also, on Feb 21, Russia’s ally, China, flew 39 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone. Why? So that the US will have to contend with possibly two major wars in two separate parts of the other side of the Earth. And US President Joe Biden’s bark is worse than his bite.

Conveniently, Putin waited for China to be done with the Winter Olympics before executing the war.

What could have been done to prevent this conflagration?

This escalation has been decades in the making and there is never any quick fix. But when someone decided to draw a line in the sand years ago – NATO and non-NATO nations – those lines were created in anticipation of a conflict.

So, why is anyone surprised? Who would have listened to anyone advocating for de-escalation and for NATO to be phased out while nations invested instead in diplomacy centred on energy co-operation?

What’s next?

Russia will likely make inroads into Ukraine but experts suggest that it would not be viable for Russia to conquer and hold the country. They might take a sizeable chunk as leverage for negotiations.

Russia wants a commitment from NATO to deescalate. In exchange, they will “retreat” but will most likely hold on to Donetsk and Luhansk.

Now, the remaining tools in the economic sanction arsenal involve hitting Russia on the oil and gas exports – which is where Europe will feel hardest hit.

Strategically, the US would prefer an all-out economic war rather than a physical one, which is why Biden (and even Barack Obama) had said that NATO allies must be willing to suffer the effects of the sanctions as well but that they are a “necessary” response to Russia’s unilateral actions.

If parties are not willing to give Russia what it wants, the conflict will likely continue. Economic warfare might spill over to cyber warfare. And excessive sanctions have become the prelude to physical warfare in the past.

If you push any country into a corner, such that the only choice that remains is between starvation/death and fighting, that is not much of a choice, isn’t it?

It is time to deescalate NATO. Hold enough arms to have an effective detente in place. Ukraine needs to accept a neutral stance that allows its democratic, pro-West citizens to unify with the Russian-leaning ones.

Form multilateral cooperation on energy exports and technology exchange. Get Russia reliant on your countries. That is how you build peace.

It is a mind-set shift, which should be embraced even by world bodies. But we are still calling it the UN Security Council and not the UN Peace Council. We are all not there yet.

It is easier to demonise than to understand, empathise and align. We do the former all the time – even here in Singapore and Malaysia, wherever there are lines drawn. Unfortunately, peace is hard work and often ridiculed. – March 7, 2022



Firdaus Daud is the contributing editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affairs.