Saturday, August 30, 2025
Biden, Modi Or Xi Jinping: Who Is Behind The Ukraine War? Does Road To Peace Pass Through New Delhi?
By Sumit Ahlawat
Since returning to the White House in January this year, US President Donald Trump has frequently blamed NATO expansion and his predecessor, Joe Biden, for the Ukraine War.
However, after more than three years of war in Ukraine, a new narrative is taking hold in the US, which is not only terming the Ukraine War as (Indian Prime Minister) Modi’s war, but also blaming New Delhi for Trump’s failure to end the war.
According to this narrative, it is New Delhi’s oil trade with Russia that is funding Putin’s war in Ukraine and allowing Moscow to continue with its war economy despite crippling Western sanctions.
This carefully built narrative has shifted the blame for funding the Ukraine War from China (which, by the way, is also Russia’s largest oil buyer, largest trade partner, and largest supplier of dual-use items with military applications) to India within a few weeks.
That this narrative of blaming India for funding the Ukraine War is taking hold in the US only goes to show how government figures can manipulate public perceptions by constant messaging through mass media (never mind if that messaging is highly selective, biased, and self-defeating).
A day after terming the Ukraine War as “Modi’s War,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has now claimed that “the road to peace in Ukraine runs through New Delhi.”
This narrative has justified the imposition of 25% additional tariffs on India (in addition to the 25% tariff already imposed), placing India in the category of nations suffering the highest tariffs in the US.
India, along with Brazil and Lesotho, now has a 50 % tariff in the US.
These punitive tariffs on India for buying Russian oil are not only derailing the strategic partnership built with India over the past two decades, but also forcing New Delhi (the only non-anti-West country in the BRICS grouping) into the arms of Russia and China.
Additionally, despite the supercharged rhetoric by figures like Navarro, this strategy is likely to fail, as New Delhi highly values its strategic autonomy and its historical relationship with Russia.
However, more than anything, the argument that ‘the road to peace in Ukraine runs through New Delhi’ is itself deeply flawed.
What Did Navaroo Say?
In an interview with Bloomberg, Navarro argued that India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil are “fuelling Russia’s war machine” – and by extension forcing American taxpayers to bankroll the conflict.
“Everybody in America loses because of what India is doing. The consumers and businesses and everything lose, and workers lose because India’s high tariffs cost us jobs, and factories, and income and higher wages. And then the taxpayers lose because we got to fund Modi’s war,” Navarro claimed.
“I mean Modi’s war because the road to peace runs, in part, through New Delhi… Russia uses the money [from oil] to fund its war machine… then Ukraine comes to us and Europe and says give us more money. So American taxpayers lose because we’ve got to fund Modi’s war,” Navarro added.
Furthermore, in a long Twitter thread, Navaroo also raised the issue of the US’s trade deficit with India.
“While the United States pays to arm Ukraine, India bankrolls Russia even as it slaps some of the world’s highest tariffs on U.S. goods, which in turn punishes American exporters. We run a $50-billion trade deficit with India—and they’re using our dollars to buy Russian oil.”
1/ President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports are now in effect.
This isn’t just about India’s unfair trade—it’s about cutting off the financial lifeline India has extended to Putin’s war machine. 
Navaroo’s argument can be summed up in four points:
- The US is running a massive trade deficit with India.
- India is using this trade surplus to buy discounted Russian oil and then sells refined petroleum products at a premium.
- India’s oil trade with Russia is funding the Ukraine War.
- Peace in Ukraine could be achieved by forcing India to stop its oil trade with Russia.
The Elephant In The Room No One Is Talking About
Navaroo’s argument is deeply flawed at multiple levels; however, its most apparent bias is its complete silence on China.
On all the points, Navaroo is faulting India; Beijing could be criticized even more.
In 2024, the US had a trade deficit with both India and China. However, the US’s trade deficit with India is much smaller when compared to its trade deficit with China.
Last year, the US exported US$143.5 billion worth of goods to China and imported a staggering US$439 billion worth of goods, resulting in a trade deficit of nearly US$295 billion.
In comparison, the US trade deficit with India stood at nearly US$46 billion.
The US trade deficit with China is more than six times its trade deficit with India.
Similarly, China is the biggest importer of Russian crude oil, not India.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA), between December 2022 and June 2025, China absorbed 47% of all Russian crude oil exports, followed by India at 38%, the EU (6%), and Turkiye (6%).
Similarly, China was the biggest importer of Russian coal. During the same period, China absorbed 44% of all Russian coal exports, followed by India at 19%, Turkiye at 11%, South Korea (9%), and Taiwan (4%).
Additionally, despite European rhetoric against purchasing Russian products, the EU remains the largest buyer of Russian LNG exports.
According to CERA data, the EU was the largest buyer, purchasing 51% of Russia’s LNG exports, followed by China (21%) and Japan (18%).
In pipeline gas, again the EU was the largest buyer, purchasing 37% of Russia’s pipeline gas, followed by China (30%) and Turkiye (27%).
However, the Trump administration is selectively targeting India while giving a long rope to China, even though Beijing was the target of Trump’s rhetoric before his election. This point was also made by former US Presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who questioned why China has received a reprieve while India has not.
“India should not be buying oil from Russia. But China, an adversary and the number one buyer of Russian and Iranian oil, got a 90-day tariff pause. Don’t give China a pass and burn a relationship with a strong ally like India,” Haley wrote on social media platform X.
This begs the question: why has Trump suddenly turned soft on Beijing?
Apparently, the US’s critical dependence on China for its defense industry may be behind Trump’s strategic shift.
US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive to hold a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2025. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)
China Arm-Twisting The US?
According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to fighter jets.
Earlier this year, when Trump imposed 145% tariffs on China, Beijing responded by tightening the export of rare earth minerals to the US.
Subsequently, Trump agreed to give trade concessions to China, withdrawing tariffs to 30%, with Beijing agreeing to restore the export of rare earth minerals to the US.
However, since then, Beijing has maintained strict controls on the export of these critical minerals, which are needed for manufacturing fighter jets, missiles, electric vehicles, and a host of other defense equipment.
China supplies nearly 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets and dominates the production of many other critical minerals.
China’s strict control on the export of these critical minerals is already causing significant delays in the production of defense equipment in the US.
According to the WSJ report, a US drone manufacturer was forced to delay orders by nearly two months as it searched for a non-Chinese source of magnets, which are assembled from rare-earth minerals.
At the same time, China’s restrictions are pushing the prices of these critical minerals.
For instance, a US defense company recently sourced samarium, an element needed to make magnets that can withstand the extreme temperatures of a jet-fighter engine, for 60 times the standard price.
“The squeeze on critical minerals highlights how dependent the U.S. military is on China for much of its supply chain, giving Beijing leverage at a time of rising tensions between the two powers and heated trade negotiations,” the report said.
China has also banned the sale of germanium, gallium, and antimony, which are used for purposes such as hardening lead bullets and projectiles, as well as allowing soldiers to see at night.
These restrictions are forcing production cuts at US defense manufacturers.
The CEO of Leonardo DRS said the US defense firm is down to its “safety stock” of germanium.
According to defense software firm Govini, more than 80,000 parts used in Defense Department weapons systems are made with critical minerals now subject to Chinese export controls.
The US Department of Defense has taken several steps to reduce its dependence on China for these critical minerals. However, it will be many years before these efforts show results. And till then, it appears that Trump’s hands are tied against China, as Beijing holds more cards than Washington in the trade war.
So, despite China absorbing 47% of Russian crude exports, 44% of Russian coal exports, and a significant portion of Russian LNG exports, Beijing might escape the penalties that Trump has imposed on India.
Modi’s War Or Pentagon’s Profit Machine?
If there is one country that has made the most profit from the Ukraine War, it has to be the US.
Between 2022 and 2024, US defense contractors alone booked over $60 billion in new orders linked to Ukraine, with Lockheed Martin’s Javelin and HIMARS sales tripling, Raytheon’s Patriot systems backlog surging past $70 billion, and Northrop Grumman reporting a 30% rise in munitions revenues.
Additionally, US-linked private military contractors (PMCs), such as Constellis (successor to Blackwater), Academi, and Triple Canopy, were deployed in Ukraine for logistics, training, and special operations support, effectively turning the battlefield into a corporate profit center.
Although there are no official confirmations of their operations in Ukraine, their involvement in the country has been widely reported, even in Western media.
Furthermore, earlier this month, Ukraine announced that it would get new weapons from the US costing nearly $90 billion, paid for by the European countries.
Why India Will Not Ditch Russia?
Trump’s tariffs on India are not only misguided but also counterproductive.
Russia has been India’s time-tested friend, often providing India with sensitive military technology that Western nations will not share. Over 50% of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin.
Su-30MKI is the mainstay of the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) combat fleet. India operates more than 250 Su-30MKIs. Just last year, India signed a contract for the manufacture of 12 additional Su-30MKIs.
The BrahMos cruise missile, the star performer of Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, is also a joint India-Russia project.
From tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft carriers, submarines, choppers, and combat aircraft, Russian military equipment is deeply embedded in the Indian armed forces. India needs Russia for their spare parts and MRO operations.
In short, India will jeopardize its military preparedness and national security by severing defense ties with Russia.
Furthermore, the tariffs will draw New Delhi closer to the embrace of Russia and China. Currently, India is perhaps the only founding BRICS member that is not anti-West.
India has been a key component of the US strategy to contain China. The US also needs India for stability and security in the crucial Indo-Pacific region. Without India, QUAD will lose its relevance.
In short, the US is harming its long-term strategic interest of containing China by alienating India.
India is neither Russia’s largest trade partner nor the largest buyer of its oil, gas, or coal. India is not supplying Russia with any dual-use items. India’s oil purchase from Moscow is only a sideshow and will not significantly impact Moscow’s war effort.
However, alienating India will ultimately harm the US and its long-term strategic interests in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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