Are Shas and UTJ Poised to Collapse Netanyahu’s Government?

 

Are Shas and UTJ Poised to Collapse Netanyahu’s Government?

With Israel’s two ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — on the verge of quitting the government, the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition appears increasingly uncertain. UTJ’s legislators on Monday submitted their resignations, set to take effect within 48 hours, while Shas is now openly threatening to follow.

But while the potential exit of both Haredi factions would strip Netanyahu’s coalition of its parliamentary majority, it would not automatically trigger new elections — and it’s far from clear that either party actually wants to bring the government down.

With only seven seats, Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party UTJ is not large enough to topple the government on its own. And while the threatened withdrawal by 11-seat Shas would cost Netanyahu his majority, the government could technically limp on as a minority, at least for a while.

The timing may work in Netanyahu’s favor. The Knesset is set to recess on July 27 for a three-month break, giving the prime minister time to try to resolve the crisis behind closed doors. – The Times of Israel

Our Take: Well, here comes the storyline that we have been mulling over for the past year, ever since the Israeli Supreme Court ruled last summer that the yeshiva students from the Haredi (Ultra-Orthodox) communities are not exempt from the mandated two-year conscription to the IDF.

Last week, while Netanyahu was in DC trying to persuade President Trump to allow Israel to annex Palestine, the IDF generals moved to begin drafting the 54,000 eligible yeshiva students, with an outlined plan to have all of them in uniform by the end of the month. This development provoked Netanyahu to drop everything in DC and rush home to Israel so he could avert the collapse of his governing coalition.

Ever since that Supreme Court ruling last summer, the Ultra-Orthodox community has been pressuring Netanyahu to codify into law the long-practiced exemption of their students from IDF service. Bibi's failure to do so is what nearly led to the collapse of his coalition/government last month – and spurred him into attacking Iran, to placate the bickering political factions and unite them behind Netanyahu's leadership.

President Trump's brilliant maneuvering short-circuited the Iran-Israel War narrative, and now Netanyahu is, again, facing the potential collapse of his government.

The concerns of the Haredi are simple: They don't believe that any bill codifying these exemptions can be passed in the Knesset, and the one being proposed by Netanyahu's committee fails to include the thousands of yeshiva students who have received draft letters over the past year – since the Supreme Court ruling. If the bill as currently written were to pass, and those students did not show up for their mandated military service, they would be considered "draft dodgers" and arrested and imprisoned.

Though it seems that the Haredi aren't confident that even this bill will receive the necessary support to pass into law, and that is why the United Torah Judaism party left the coalition on Monday night. Their seven (7) seat departure brings Netanyahu's majority in the 120-seat Knesset from 68 seats to 61 seats – the minimum required figure for Netanyahu to remain Prime Minister.

Today, the Shas party will vote to decide whether it will join the UTJ and leave the coalition. If it does, their eleven (11) seat departure would bring Netanyahu's coalition down to 50 seats, well below the threshold, leading to a "collapse" in the Israeli government and the scheduling of snap elections sometime toward the end of the year.

Bibi will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat in order to remain PM. Let's see what happens today. – GhostofBasedPatrickHenry