Seismic shift in the Malaysian political landscape about to occur

Murray Hunter

Seismic shift in the Malaysian political landscape about to occur

Some scribblings from the hospital bed under the influence……………..

Oct 03, 2024







With discussions over the how and whys of the Mahkota byelection still ongoing, the pundits are missing the potential new reality that is very likely to occur sometime in the near future.

The Bersatu brand is being continually damaged by both sides of the political spectrum. The Pakatan Harapan (PH)-UMNO government has used lawfare against Bersatu leaders, and PAS pulled shifty tricks on Bersatu during the Mahkota byelection.

Six Bersatu MPs have already pledged their allegiance to the PH-UMNO plus government in the Dewan Rakyat, and rumours are flying around there could be a mass exodus of Bersatu members moving to PKR.

On the DAP side, Teressa Kok is being savagely kicked around, by a senior member of one of the DAP’s coalition partners, and no one is standing up for her. Decisions have been made in the ‘so called unity government’ that should have crossed DAP’s ‘red-line’, a number of times.

There is no doubt that both Bersatu and DAP are being pushed out by their respective coalition partners. The ‘use-by-dates’ of both Bersatu and DAP have passed in their respective coalitions. Bersatu no longer provides any value to PAS, and DAP no longer provides any value to PKR.


The coming seismic shift

It’s no longer ‘breaking news’ that there is some form of understanding between PAS and PKR. By default, such an understanding makes Bersatu and DAP redundant.

Such a pact between PKR and PAS is built upon the assumption that between PAS, UMNO, and PKR, most Bersatu seats can be won back in the next general election. This would leave Bersatu as a little rump of a party, holding only a few seats in the next parliament.

The loss of the DAP will cost around 40 seats, but the 43 seats that PAS has, would lead to a small net addition to the PKR-PAS pact. UMNO will be able to ride on the back of this new alliance, which would guarantee the party’s survival at GE16. The pact may actually allow UMNO to win back some Bersatu seats.

Over the last six years, PKR has been consciously transforming itself into a Malay-centric party. Non-Malay members have been very slowly losing their influence. Most significant party posts are now held by Malays. PKR is now primarily a Malay-centric party, with some multi-culturalism at the fringes, by complacent non-Malays. Long gone are notions of secularism, ‘reformasi’, and democracy.

Can these two men leave a lasting Malay legacy?


The new look PKR is perfect with UMNO and PAS. Together they will go into the next GE with around 100 seats. If Amanah follows, this would be 108, just 4 seats short of an outright majority in parliament. If the PKR-PAS alliance takes away enough Bersatu seats, they will have a simple majority in their own right.

This leaves east Malaysia. There would be a great probability a number of parties will join up with PKR-PAS, especially if UMNO is still with them.

Will the shock of being ousted bring them together, or will they go alone?

As for Bersatu and DAP, they would be in shock and have to decide whether to go alone or form a new coalition. As a new coalition, Bersatu-DAP would go into the next general election with a theoretical 71 seats.

Such a seismic shift would create a government that Malay nationalists have dreamt of for generations. There is currently no leader within Bersatu-DAP, who has the charisma to muster the Borneo parties around them.

Anwar becomes prime minister for a second term with a legacy of creating the ‘mythical Malay unity’.

However, just like a geological seismic event, its very difficult to predict the exact time this would happen.

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kt comments:

I don't quite agree with Murray Hunter. Currently PKR has only 31 MPs, of which 12 are non-Malays. Does anyone believe that when Anwar makes a seismic move to form a Malay-centric coalition of PKR-PAS-UMNO-Amanah, those PKR non's will follow Anwar into the coalition?

This may reduce Anwar's PKR to a mere 19 MPs and additionally 'demote' the PKR into a 'junior' coalition partner when compared to PAS' 43 MPs. Worse, if the 12 'former' PKR non-Malay MPs were to join DAP the Rocket Party will then be 52 MP-strong.

Then there are the supporters in PKR current constituencies, many of which are non-Malays. Will they continue to vote PKR if Anwar's party becomes Malay-aligned?

And why in the world would Anwar even take such a seismic and probably fatal step, when he is the PM with such strong backing especially from a compliant 'obedient' DAP? And it's highly probable Anwar will again be the PMXI after GE16.

Mind you, currently there is a rumour that Anwar's visits to Pakistan and Bangladesh is to seek a tripartite pact among the 3 'Islamic' nations, though I suspect it's again Islamophobia muttering nonsense.

Hmmm, let's see.