Military Watch:

Planning For After Ukraine’s Defeat: New Deterrence Posture Laid Out By Former Polish General Staff Chief

Eastern Europe and Central Asia , Ground , Foreign Relations

Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff

October-13th-2024

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Rajmund Andrzejczak and Polish K2 Tanks

Amid mounting Ukrainian frontline losses in Kursk and the Donbas region, and growing questions regarding the Western world’s continued willingness to sustain the functioning of the Ukrainian state with tens of billions of dollars of aid, former Polish chief of the General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak has projected a possible future deterrence policy against Russia following a Russian takeover of Ukraine. 

Having served in his position well into the Russian-Ukrainian War, namely from 2018 to 2023, Andrzejczak stated: “After a Russian victory in Ukraine, we would have a Russian division in Lviv, one in Brest and one in Grodno.”  “If they attack even an inch of Lithuanian territory, the response will come immediately. Not on the first day, but in the first minute. We will hit all strategic targets within a radius of 300 km. We will attack St. Petersburg directly,” he asserted, adding that Warsaw had to “take the initiative” in deterring Moscow. 

“Russia must realise that an attack on Poland or the Baltic countries would also mean its end… That is the only way to deter the Kremlin from such aggression,” the former chief of staff elaborated, stating that that end Poland was buying “800 missiles with a range of 900 km.” This was thought to refer to Poland’s very large scale orders for South Korean Chunmoo and American HIMARS rocket artillery systems.

U.S. Army Soldiers From the 3rd Infantry Division in Poland

Andrzejczak’s statement at the Defending Baltics conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, provides an indication of the gradual shift on consensus in the Western world that with the war in Ukraine increasingly appearing to be lost, defence planning needs to focus on securing NATO’s borders in an era where both Ukraine and Belarus will be in Russia’s sphere of influence and host Russian forces. 

Tremendous losses among many of Ukraine’s most elite units during a large scale incursion into the Russian Kursk region from early August, consistent Russian gains in the Donbas regions, unsustainable Ukrainian casualty rates, and heavy losses of new Western equipment sent to the country, have been central factors shaping this consensus. 

Poland has notably been a leading contributor to the Ukrainian war effort, providing large quantities of aid, equipment such as Leopard 2 and T-72 tanks, and very substantial personnel contributions. Sources from both sides report Polish being widely spoken in multiple major conflict zones from Kursk to Bakhmut, as both contractors and volunteer units from the country have played key roles in bolstering Ukraine’s war effort. 

Polish Operated Humvee and Tank During Ukrainian Incursion into Russian Territory

As among the most hardline states in the Western world on the need to maximise support for the war effort against Russia, fact that even in Poland a consensus has increasingly formed on the need to plan for defence following a loss of Western influence over Ukraine indicates the extent to which Western projections for the future of the conflict have become pessimistic. 

While making significant contributions to the Ukrainian war effort, NATO forces have increasingly concentrated their attentions on expanding their military presences in Poland, Finland and the Baltics - where they would directly face Russian and Belarusian forces in the event of a total Ukrainian defeat. Examples have included German plans to deploy 4,800 personnel to Lithuania, and plans for the U.S. Air Force to station F-35 fighter aircraft in Finland, which acceded to NATO in April 2023.