Top intelligence chief warns China's 'troubling' strategic convergence with Russia poses threat to democracies
Russia and China recently struck a new "no limits" strategic pact.(Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
One of Australia's top intelligence chiefs says China is intent on establishing "global pre-eminence" and says its "troubling" strategic convergence with Russia will pose new threats to liberal democracies like Australia.
Mr Shearer said China's authoritarian turn under President Xi Jinping was partly driven by the Chinese Communist Party's desire to supersede the United States as a global power.The Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence, Andrew Shearer, has offered a grim assessment of Australia's strategic outlook at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit.
"We see a leader who is really battening down and hardening his country for this struggle to overtake the United States as the world's leading power," he said.
"That's the assessment of the US intelligence community of China's intent [and] it's also our assessment of China's intent.
One of Australia's top intelligence chiefs says China is intent on establishing "global pre-eminence" and says its "troubling" strategic convergence with Russia will pose new threats to liberal democracies like Australia.
Mr Shearer said China's authoritarian turn under President Xi Jinping was partly driven by the Chinese Communist Party's desire to supersede the United States as a global power.The Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence, Andrew Shearer, has offered a grim assessment of Australia's strategic outlook at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit.
"We see a leader who is really battening down and hardening his country for this struggle to overtake the United States as the world's leading power," he said.
"That's the assessment of the US intelligence community of China's intent [and] it's also our assessment of China's intent.
Mr Shearer says Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to supersede the US as a global power.(Reuters: Damir Sagolj)
"And the way station, if you like, the base camp for getting to that position of global pre-eminence, is to establish primacy in the Indo-Pacific region.
"A situation where other countries in the region, across South-East Asia, across the Pacific, including Australia, have to defer to Beijing's choices."
Russia and China struck a new "no limits" strategic pact just weeks before Russia's President ordered troops into Ukraine.
Mr Shearer said that agreement was a "symbol" of a "troubling new strategic convergence" between Beijing and Moscow.
"What we're seeing is that increasing cooperation between these authoritarian powers," he said.
"I do think it tells us that we're going to have to work much harder to maintain the liberal quality of the rules-based order in Europe and here in the Indo-Pacific region."
"And the way station, if you like, the base camp for getting to that position of global pre-eminence, is to establish primacy in the Indo-Pacific region.
"A situation where other countries in the region, across South-East Asia, across the Pacific, including Australia, have to defer to Beijing's choices."
Russia and China struck a new "no limits" strategic pact just weeks before Russia's President ordered troops into Ukraine.
Mr Shearer said that agreement was a "symbol" of a "troubling new strategic convergence" between Beijing and Moscow.
"What we're seeing is that increasing cooperation between these authoritarian powers," he said.
"I do think it tells us that we're going to have to work much harder to maintain the liberal quality of the rules-based order in Europe and here in the Indo-Pacific region."
The withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan left many questioning American power, Mr Shearer says.(Reuters)
He struck a more optimistic tone on the United States-led response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying the wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Moscow by a host of countries across Europe and Asia showed that "reservoirs of American power still run deep".
"I think, particularly after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, there were legitimate doubts about American staying power, but I would contend that the US response to what's playing out in Ukraine has been robust [and] as effective as it could be in a very difficult situation."
But Mr Shearer also warned that while Ukraine's resistance had been much stronger than many analysts expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin was "very determined" to take the country because he had "everything at stake".
"It's very hard to see a sort of elegant or even inelegant dismount from this for Putin and his tactics, in our judgement, will become more and more brutal," he said.
"We're seeing that in the shelling of innocent women and children and other civilians just in the last few days … so we are in for a very brutal, bloody couple of weeks, in our judgement."
He struck a more optimistic tone on the United States-led response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying the wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Moscow by a host of countries across Europe and Asia showed that "reservoirs of American power still run deep".
"I think, particularly after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, there were legitimate doubts about American staying power, but I would contend that the US response to what's playing out in Ukraine has been robust [and] as effective as it could be in a very difficult situation."
But Mr Shearer also warned that while Ukraine's resistance had been much stronger than many analysts expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin was "very determined" to take the country because he had "everything at stake".
"It's very hard to see a sort of elegant or even inelegant dismount from this for Putin and his tactics, in our judgement, will become more and more brutal," he said.
"We're seeing that in the shelling of innocent women and children and other civilians just in the last few days … so we are in for a very brutal, bloody couple of weeks, in our judgement."
Families have been forced to take shelter in Mariupol and other parts of Ukraine.(AP: Evgeniy Maloletka)
Quad and Europe need to 'push back' on authoritarian impulses
He also expressed frustration at the Biden administration's economic strategy in Asia.
Former US president Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and Joe Biden has made it clear the US will not re-join it under his presidency.
Senior US officials have instead promised to develop an Indo-Pacific "economic framework" focusing on supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy and the digital economy, but progress has been slow.
"Do they need to do more on trade and investment? Do they need to have a proper regional economic plan? Absolutely," Mr Shearer said.
Mr Shearer said Australia needed to respond to the deteriorating strategic environment by "hardening" its economic and political systems from coercion and foreign interference, and said an increasing number of countries across Asia and Europe realised they were facing a common threat from authoritarian states like Russia and China.
"[This gives us] the ability to stake out positions defending the liberal aspects of the world order that that give us some hope of at least curbing some of China's more assertive behaviour.""We're dealing with it in like-minded partnership with an increasing range of countries," he said.
And he said democratic countries were not just focused on balancing China's swelling military might but also ensuring that global rules governing new technologies were "conducive" to democracies rather than autocracies.
"We can't win that fight on our own. Not even the United States can win that fight on its own," Mr Shearer told the summit.
"But the US, Australia, India, Japan, plus the massive normative power of Europe, can actually make a difference in pushing back on some of these authoritarian impulses."
He also expressed frustration at the Biden administration's economic strategy in Asia.
Former US president Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and Joe Biden has made it clear the US will not re-join it under his presidency.
Senior US officials have instead promised to develop an Indo-Pacific "economic framework" focusing on supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy and the digital economy, but progress has been slow.
"Do they need to do more on trade and investment? Do they need to have a proper regional economic plan? Absolutely," Mr Shearer said.
"And we badger them mercilessly about that, I can assure you, day in, day out."
Mr Shearer said Australia needed to respond to the deteriorating strategic environment by "hardening" its economic and political systems from coercion and foreign interference, and said an increasing number of countries across Asia and Europe realised they were facing a common threat from authoritarian states like Russia and China.
"[This gives us] the ability to stake out positions defending the liberal aspects of the world order that that give us some hope of at least curbing some of China's more assertive behaviour.""We're dealing with it in like-minded partnership with an increasing range of countries," he said.
And he said democratic countries were not just focused on balancing China's swelling military might but also ensuring that global rules governing new technologies were "conducive" to democracies rather than autocracies.
"We can't win that fight on our own. Not even the United States can win that fight on its own," Mr Shearer told the summit.
"But the US, Australia, India, Japan, plus the massive normative power of Europe, can actually make a difference in pushing back on some of these authoritarian impulses."
Chuna's foreign policy has been for decades emphasising sovereignty, non-interference and respect for national boundaries.
ReplyDeleteExcept when it comes to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, China has gone wishy-washy and duplicitous on sovereignty, non-interference and respect for national boundaries.
Mfer, has China gotten involved with Ukraine crisis?
DeleteWhere is yr fart on China's wishy-washy and duplicitous on sovereignty, non-interference and respect for national boundaries?
Or u want to use yr 南魔万 England to enlighten?
A brilliant strategist analyzes the contemporary surrounding sopo-economic happenstances & forms a logical & rational predictions of the circumstancial issues into the futurfuture.
ReplyDeleteZbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński, a Polish-American diplomat and political scientist, who had served under two US presidency as geopolitic strategist advisor.
In his book ≪The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives≫ he has warned that
"Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'antihegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances."
Yet his insightful and exclusive analysis of geopolitical patterns r been ignored by the current batch of the US 'security' advisors of any hue & class.
Now, it's coming into full circle!
Shearer is that class of peripheral intelligence chief that only the current generation of Oz could produce - 事后诸葛！
Brezenski's view of China was shaped in a late 1970's and 1980's China under Deng Xiaoping, who viewed friendly to benign relationships with USA as essential to China's development. Deng wanted China to grow more prosperous, not trying to become a hegemon.
DeleteToday's Xi Jinping is in process to make China a hegemon and his one path is to turn the current international situation upside down.
To Malaysians the obvious manifestation of this is PLA warships starting to interfere with Petronas contracted oil exploration ships in Malaysian EEZ waters close to Sarawak.
Don't forget, even if China becomes the World's largest economy by 2030 thereabouts, China remains a middling-income country.
The shiny LED lights of Shanghai and Beijing are a thin crust over a country where the average income is in reality around Malaysia's income level.
China has come a long , long way from the 1960's but don't forget a lot of it was enabled by US friendly welcome of trade with China. Those days are fast disappearing.
Not surprising at all. The five eyes alliance is full of zionists and their apologists and together with the former colonialists European want to rule the world with their selfish interests. Long live Russia and China and the rest of the world!
Delete"Brezenski's view of China was shaped in a late 1970's and 1980's China under Deng Xiaoping, who viewed friendly to benign relationships with USA as essential to China's development"
DeleteWakakakaka…
Obviously u read NO Brezenski's view of China to write about him! If he had been influenced by Deng's thought, not likely with Deng's sopo experimentalism, he wouldn't had formulated that thought of "most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'antihegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances" so far ahead of the messy geopolitics that the US is engaging in now!
Yes, China's explosive growths of the past 20yrs have a lot to do with US trade policies. But those trade policies were extremely one-sided & heavily prejudicial to the products & well-being of the Chinese!
Yet, being weak, economically & military, China of the Deng's era, had to bite the bullet to be the sacrificial lamb of a prosperous future. Meanwhile the farsighted & thinking leaders planned for that future in the scale of tens of yrs into the future.
Xi inherited that legacy & strengthen the vision further into the envisaged 伟大中华民族复新梦！
The dream of shared prosperity for every Chinese has NO bound. But can u imagine the economic size of a country of 1.4B of middling-income populace?
Obviously, u DON'T.
The days of US exploiting the labours/materials or any forms of resources from China is far far gone. Yet there r still Yankee acolytes lamenting about that good old days of past!
What is this monkey aussie talking about? What makes it so secure having the western alliance lead the world? As far as wr know, the west are the war mongers always killing each other and invading lands decades after another. Infact, maybe they are united now just so they can stop killing each other and focus killing other than westerns and europeans for a change, hence why middle east is in such great havoc for decades now.
ReplyDeleteWhat a fooking aussie twat.