Big BN win in Johor should trigger GE15, says analyst
A crushing victory in Johor will give Barisan Nasional the confidence to call for a snap election, says analyst Jeniri Amir. (Bernama pic)
PETALING JAYA: If Barisan Nasional (BN) wins big in Johor, it would be wise to ride on the wave of popularity by calling an early general election, a political analyst said.
Jeniri Amir, a Council of Professors fellow, said it would make sense for BN to mobilise for a general election should Johor go its way on Saturday.
The Umno-led coalition’s dominant win in Melaka late last year – where it secured a two-thirds majority – was soon followed by a crushing win for GPS in Sarawak, a party with roots in the now defunct BN Sarawak.
Now, with the Johor polls just around the corner, a third win in as many tries should give the coalition confidence to do the same at the federal level, with even Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan vocally supporting a general election before the end of the government’s term in mid-2023.
Jeniri Amir, a Council of Professors fellow, said it would make sense for BN to mobilise for a general election should Johor go its way on Saturday.
The Umno-led coalition’s dominant win in Melaka late last year – where it secured a two-thirds majority – was soon followed by a crushing win for GPS in Sarawak, a party with roots in the now defunct BN Sarawak.
Now, with the Johor polls just around the corner, a third win in as many tries should give the coalition confidence to do the same at the federal level, with even Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan vocally supporting a general election before the end of the government’s term in mid-2023.
Jeniri Amir.
“Calling an election early would definitely be better for BN, because nobody can predict what will happen later on,” Jeniri told FMT.
“It needs to act to capitalise on the current sentiment for it, which would be even stronger if it wins big in Johor, and to also capitalise on the discontent some voters feel towards Pakatan Harapan.”
Acknowledging that there might be different views within Umno, as illustrated by Pasir Salak MP Tajuddin Abdul Rahman accusing Mohamad of trying to pressure the prime minister into an early election, Jeniri said an early election for a surging BN could help deliver the political stability sought since the Sheraton Move in 2020.
“Stability at the federal level is very important if we are to address the health crisis and the economic problems we are facing at the moment. We can’t afford uncertainty any longer.
“A strong mandate for BN in Johor would give voters another thing to consider when it’s time to pick the next government.
“The people have seen three governments now (under Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional and BN), and BN would likely be confident it compares well against the others in terms of bringing political stability.”
Johor goes to the polls on Saturday, with BN set to face a longer list of challengers than it had in earlier state elections.
In addition to PN and PH, both reeling from heavy losses in Melaka and Sarawak, youth party Muda, the Mahathir Mohamad-fronted Pejuang and Warisan will make their electoral debuts.
“Calling an election early would definitely be better for BN, because nobody can predict what will happen later on,” Jeniri told FMT.
“It needs to act to capitalise on the current sentiment for it, which would be even stronger if it wins big in Johor, and to also capitalise on the discontent some voters feel towards Pakatan Harapan.”
Acknowledging that there might be different views within Umno, as illustrated by Pasir Salak MP Tajuddin Abdul Rahman accusing Mohamad of trying to pressure the prime minister into an early election, Jeniri said an early election for a surging BN could help deliver the political stability sought since the Sheraton Move in 2020.
“Stability at the federal level is very important if we are to address the health crisis and the economic problems we are facing at the moment. We can’t afford uncertainty any longer.
“A strong mandate for BN in Johor would give voters another thing to consider when it’s time to pick the next government.
“The people have seen three governments now (under Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional and BN), and BN would likely be confident it compares well against the others in terms of bringing political stability.”
Johor goes to the polls on Saturday, with BN set to face a longer list of challengers than it had in earlier state elections.
In addition to PN and PH, both reeling from heavy losses in Melaka and Sarawak, youth party Muda, the Mahathir Mohamad-fronted Pejuang and Warisan will make their electoral debuts.
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