FMT:
By-elections in Perlis may trigger PAS-Bersatu showdown, analysts say
Yesterday
Minderjeet Kaur
They, however, say that by-elections for Chuping, Bintong, and Guar Sanji are necessary to obtain a fresh mandate from the rakyat and remove possible instability
Perlis assembly speaker Rus’sele Eizan said he would write to the Election Commission to ask for by-elections to be held for the Chuping, Bintong and Guar Sanji seats to ensure political stability. (Bernama pic)
PETALING JAYA: Analysts foresee a real chance of a clash between PAS and Bersatu if by-elections are called after the seats of three assemblymen from the Islamic party were declared vacant today following the cessation of their membership.
No by-elections are necessary for the Chuping, Bintong and Guar Sanji seats as the state assembly automatically dissolves in two years.
However, Perlis assembly speaker Rus’sele Eizan said he would write to the Election Commission to ask for by-elections to be held as it was necessary to ensure political stability.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara warned that the rift between PAS and Bersatu seemed “severe” and that this could lead to a direct contest if by-elections took place.
“If by-elections were to be held, the two parties would almost certainly go head on against each other,” he said, adding that Barisan Nasional, particularly Umno, would likely capitalise on the split.
“Perlis was under BN rule for a long period and Umno still has local strength. Pakatan Harapan would likely play a more limited role.”
Saad Seman (Chuping), Fakhrul Anwar Ismail (Bintong), and Ridzuan Hashim (Guar Sanji) had their party membership terminated after allegedly withdrawing their support for Perlis menteri besar Shukri Ramli, who is also from PAS.
The trio were said to have been part of a move, alongside five Bersatu assemblymen, to remove Shukri as menteri besar. Shukri resigned from the post earlier today, citing health reasons.
A source was previously quoted as saying that Bersatu was behind the plot to oust Shukri in a bid to install its own menteri besar. Bersatu was reported to have submitted the names of its assemblyman – Abu Bakar Hamzah (Kuala Perlis), Megat Hashirat Hassan (Pauh) and Izizam Ibrahim (Titi Tinggi) as candidates for the post.
Azmi warned that political instability would persist without by-elections. “Without fresh mandates, governing as a minority administration would be extremely difficult.”
He said the issue was fundamentally a contest between PAS and Bersatu for control of Perlis, with broader implications nationwide.
“What is happening now is essentially a power struggle between PAS and Bersatu over control of the Perlis state government. Beyond Perlis, it is also about who controls the Perikatan Nasional bloc at the national level.”
Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said a PAS-Bersatu clash is possible but not inevitable.
“The risk arises because the three seats were won under PAS, yet Bersatu may argue they deserve to contest as equal PN partners, especially if the balance of power in Perlis is at stake,” he said.
Sivamurugan said the speaker’s warning about a potential hung assembly shows the urgency of the situation. “Without fresh mandates, legitimacy and stability will be contested,” he said.
He cautioned that at the national level, an open confrontation would strain the PN bloc.
“But both parties have strong incentives to manage this pragmatically, likely through seat negotiations, to avoid signalling disunity ahead of future elections,” he added.
Bersatu feeling ‘threatened’?
Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi noted that if by-elections for the three seats were to be called, it could expose deep fault lines within PN.
He said Bersatu had been left in a weaker and dependent position in Perlis, with the menteri besar having been from PAS and the Islamic party holding a majority of seats in the assembly following the last state election.
“Bersatu increasingly feels marginalised and treated as a junior partner. Over time, this creates anxiety within Bersatu,” he said.
“When a party feels threatened in this way, coalition cohesion begins to fray.”
No by-elections are necessary for the Chuping, Bintong and Guar Sanji seats as the state assembly automatically dissolves in two years.
However, Perlis assembly speaker Rus’sele Eizan said he would write to the Election Commission to ask for by-elections to be held as it was necessary to ensure political stability.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara warned that the rift between PAS and Bersatu seemed “severe” and that this could lead to a direct contest if by-elections took place.
“If by-elections were to be held, the two parties would almost certainly go head on against each other,” he said, adding that Barisan Nasional, particularly Umno, would likely capitalise on the split.
“Perlis was under BN rule for a long period and Umno still has local strength. Pakatan Harapan would likely play a more limited role.”
Saad Seman (Chuping), Fakhrul Anwar Ismail (Bintong), and Ridzuan Hashim (Guar Sanji) had their party membership terminated after allegedly withdrawing their support for Perlis menteri besar Shukri Ramli, who is also from PAS.
The trio were said to have been part of a move, alongside five Bersatu assemblymen, to remove Shukri as menteri besar. Shukri resigned from the post earlier today, citing health reasons.
A source was previously quoted as saying that Bersatu was behind the plot to oust Shukri in a bid to install its own menteri besar. Bersatu was reported to have submitted the names of its assemblyman – Abu Bakar Hamzah (Kuala Perlis), Megat Hashirat Hassan (Pauh) and Izizam Ibrahim (Titi Tinggi) as candidates for the post.
Azmi warned that political instability would persist without by-elections. “Without fresh mandates, governing as a minority administration would be extremely difficult.”
He said the issue was fundamentally a contest between PAS and Bersatu for control of Perlis, with broader implications nationwide.
“What is happening now is essentially a power struggle between PAS and Bersatu over control of the Perlis state government. Beyond Perlis, it is also about who controls the Perikatan Nasional bloc at the national level.”
Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said a PAS-Bersatu clash is possible but not inevitable.
“The risk arises because the three seats were won under PAS, yet Bersatu may argue they deserve to contest as equal PN partners, especially if the balance of power in Perlis is at stake,” he said.
Sivamurugan said the speaker’s warning about a potential hung assembly shows the urgency of the situation. “Without fresh mandates, legitimacy and stability will be contested,” he said.
He cautioned that at the national level, an open confrontation would strain the PN bloc.
“But both parties have strong incentives to manage this pragmatically, likely through seat negotiations, to avoid signalling disunity ahead of future elections,” he added.
Bersatu feeling ‘threatened’?
Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi noted that if by-elections for the three seats were to be called, it could expose deep fault lines within PN.
He said Bersatu had been left in a weaker and dependent position in Perlis, with the menteri besar having been from PAS and the Islamic party holding a majority of seats in the assembly following the last state election.
“Bersatu increasingly feels marginalised and treated as a junior partner. Over time, this creates anxiety within Bersatu,” he said.
“When a party feels threatened in this way, coalition cohesion begins to fray.”
