Thaksin vs. Hun Sen – How Personal Feud Between Two “Brothers” Sparks Thailand-Cambodia War Overnight

Thaksin vs. Hun Sen – How Personal Feud Between Two “Brothers” Sparks Thailand-Cambodia War Overnight


July 26th, 2025 by financetwitter



As Beijing faces a delicate balancing act on what role it should play in the stunning border hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia that has led to a bloody war with dozens dead, Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has prematurely – and recklessly – rushed to announce a ceasefire between both nations and a withdrawal of their troops from their common border.

Mr Anwar, current chairman of the ASEAN regional grouping, claims the agreement was reached after a telephone conversation with Thailand’s acting Prime Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet. However, Reuters reported that Thailand rejected mediation efforts by third countries and insisted that the situation be resolved only through bilateral talks.



While the Malaysian leader tries to claim credit, China saw the conflict as both an opportunity to showcase its leadership in the region, as well as a geopolitical risk if not handled carefully. Between Malaysia and China, it’s not rocket science that Beijing has a bigger influence to bring the two Southeast Asian nations that are its close neighbours to the negotiating table.


China can play a bigger role in the dispute because it is both Thailand and Cambodia’s top trading partner, thus wields strong economic influence. Thailand relies on Chinese imports such as machinery, electronics and vehicles, not to mention China is also Thailand’s top source of foreign tourists. Meanwhile, bilateral trade between China and Cambodia grew a whopping 26.9% in the first 6-month of 2025.

Crucially, China is a major investor in both Thailand and Cambodia, especially in electric vehicles (EVs), infrastructure and real estate. Beijing also conducts separate military exercises with Cambodia and Thailand. In fact, China has sponsored the upgrades of the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. But even the world’s second-biggest economic powerhouse has to be mindful and careful.


After his daughter was suspended from political office thanks to a damaging phone call with Cambodia’s leader this month, Thailand’s power broker Thaksin Shinawatra broke his silence to a roomful of politicians and journalists. He had an explosive message to deliver – his decades-long relationship with the Cambodian strongman, Hun Sen, was over.


Despite a long history of border conflicts, a friendship spanning 33 years between 75-year-old Thaksin and 72-year-old Hun Sen had acted like a glue holding the two neighbours together. Both leaders share dynastic ambitions, with their children elevated to power within a year of each other. Now, a rift has opened up between the two men, bewildering even Mr. Thaksin himself.

“I used to be close to him – like brothers,” Mr. Thaksin said. “But after what he did to my daughter, I was shocked. How could this even happen?” Kantathi Suphamongkhon, Thailand’s foreign minister from 2005 to 2006 when Mr. Thaksin was premier, said – “I was surprised how two close friends for so many years ended up practically overnight in such an escalation. This is something that I never expected – how that friendship can break apart so spectacularly.”

On Saturday (July 26), clashes at the border entered their third day, sending 168,000 fleeing from their homes and bringing the death toll to at least 33 people. Tensions have been running high since May, when a Cambodian solider was killed in a brief exchange of fire, but escalated further this week when Thai solders were injured by landmines, which Thai officials claimed had been freshly planted – an allegation Cambodia has denied.


In retaliation, Thailand recalled its ambassador to Cambodia, saying it would expel Cambodia’s envoy in Bangkok. On Thursday morning, fighting erupted at multiple points along the border. Both sides blamed each other for opening fire first, and have accused the other side of violating international norms. Thailand accused Cambodia of targeting civilian infrastructure, while Cambodia has accused Thailand of using cluster munitions.



The 500-mile frontier between Thailand and Cambodia has been disputed for decades, but past confrontations have been limited and brief. However, in the hours after fighting began on Thursday, Thaksin and Hun Sen attacked each other on social media. Thaksin said that many countries had offered to mediate but that he wanted to “let the Thai military do their duty to teach Hun Sen a lesson about his cunning ways first.”

Hun Sen fired back at Thaksin on Facebook – “Now, under the pretext of taking revenge on Hun Sen, he is resorting to war, the ultimate consequence of which will be the suffering of the people.” Analysts say Hun Sen has sought to exploit the turmoil within the Thai politics to shore up his own legitimacy. Even opposition figures in Cambodia appeared to have taken the government’s side in the latest crisis.


Hun Sen, an authoritarian ruler, has been struggling to help solidify the credentials of his son Hun Manet, who is also the current prime minister. Hun Manet was largely seen as an inexperienced son of a former strongman who does not yet have his own authority. It didn’t help that Cambodia is dealing with a struggling economy, not to mention Trump’s tariff war.

While he is still the most influential person in Thai politics, Thaksin’s hold on power is weakening – he is fighting a criminal royal defamation charge that could send him to prison for as long as 15 years. To make matters worse, the fragile coalition government centred on Thaksin’s party is dealing with a stagnant economy and reeling from the threat of Trump’s tariffs.

For decades, Thaksin and Hun Sen worked to anchor their personal and political fortunes together. Hun Sen, who handed power to his son Hun Manet on a silver platter in 2023, and Thailand’s former populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra became prime minister in 2024, both remain highly influential in their countries.




Mr. Hun Sen and Mr. Thaksin remained close even after Mr. Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup. Hun Sen appointed Thaksin as an economic adviser to the Cambodian government, and even allowed him and his sister, Yingluck, who was also overthrown in a coup, to seek refuge in his home in Cambodia. Mr. Hun Sen later said he named the bedrooms the “Thaksin room” and the “Yingluck room.”

During the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, Thaksin frequently visited Cambodia and often played golf with Hun Sen. In April 2012, Thaksin met with red-shirt leaders in Cambodia, where he was warmly welcomed by the Cambodian government. After the 2014 coup, Hun Sen opened Cambodia’s doors, allowing over 200 red-shirt leaders and their allies to seek asylum in Cambodia.

In Thailand, though, this closeness with Hun Sen has often been regarded with suspicion by Thaksin’s political opponents, particularly those in the military and conservative establishment. Thaksin has never been able to shake off the view held by many that he is interested only in his personal gain. And the former Thailand strongman definitely did not expect to be betrayed by his buddy.


“The aspirations and the dream of wealth of the two families have not been realized,” – said Kasit Piromya, another former foreign minister of Thailand. He said Mr. Hun Sen probably saw this as a failure on Mr. Thaksin’s part. “Hun Sen was in total control of his country, and he could carry out his end of the bargain. But Thaksin has been losing that luster and control of the Thai society for the past 20 years.”

It’s worth noting that after Thaksin returned to Thailand in 2023, he increasingly positioned the country to be an economic competitor to Cambodia. He hatched the idea of an entertainment complex that would rival the casinos in Cambodia, a lucrative source of revenue for Hun Sen and his fellow tycoons. But there was something else that cracked their friendship.



Hun Sen felt threatened by Bangkok’s warning to cut off electricity in the border area and its subsequent arrest warrants against tycoons operating casinos and online scam compounds in the area. Even though the Cambodian authorities had made more than 1,000 arrests, it is believed that the Cambodian elites linked to the government were complicit in the cyberscam industry that was worth US$19 to US$29 billion.


Much of the fighting has centered around the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple. The ICJ (International Court of Justice) awarded the temple to Cambodia in 1962, but Thailand has continued to claim the surrounding land. According to Mr. Kantathi, the former foreign minister, Mr. Hun Sen in 2006 invited Mr. Thaksin to make a friendly visit to the Preah Vihear temple and land a helicopter near it.

Mr. Kantathi said he urged Mr. Thaksin not to go, warning that Cambodia could use the visit to strengthen its territorial claims to the areas claimed by both Cambodia and Thailand. A visit by a Thai prince in the early 1930s, when Cambodia was a French colony, was later cited by Cambodia to bolster its argument at the International Court of Justice, he said. (The Thai prince did not complain about the hoisting of the French flag during his visit, which the court said amounted to his tacit consent to French-Cambodian control.)

Mr. Thaksin ultimately canceled the trip. The dispute over the temple escalated significantly in 2008 when Cambodia listed Preah Vihear as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, leading to deadly military encounters in 2008 and 2011. This year, Thaksin did not expect a brief clash between Thai and Cambodian soldiers would cost the job of his own daughter.


Two weeks after the military clash in May that killed a Cambodian soldier, then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (Thaksin’s daughter) tried to call Hun Sen to discuss the crisis, didn’t realize a trap set up for her. She was unable to reach him, but Mr. Hun Sen later called Ms. Paetongtarn’s personal number, Mr. Thaksin revealed during a seminar in Bangkok.


Three days later, Mr. Hun Sen posted the audio recording of that call on Facebook. The Thai public heard Ms. Paetongtarn calling Mr. Hun Sen “uncle” and telling him to ignore “the opposite side,” a reference to the Thai military. It led to calls for her resignation and multiple complaints. One complaint filed by 36 senators at the Constitutional Court led to her suspension this month.

Mr. Thaksin said, “I was wrong to trust someone like Hun Sen.” Upon learning that 12,000 Cambodian troops had been mobilized to the border last month, he called the translator who had facilitated his daughter’s call with Mr. Hun Sen and told him: “You tell your boss – our children are prime ministers of both countries. Are we going to war now?”


Thaksin once told red-shirt members – “In ASEAN, there are three brothers who love each other deeply: Sultan of Brunei, me, and Hun Sen. Throughout the time I was persecuted, both countries became my second homes in difficult times.” On August 5, 2023, during Hun Sen’s 71st birthday celebration, both Thaksin and Yingluck attended the family event. On that day, Hun Sen referred to Thaksin as his “god brother.”

But on Thursday, as Thai deployed F-16 fighter jets to bomb targets in Cambodia – a rare deployment of the jets for combat in the region – all hell broke loose. Hun Sen and his son, Hun Manet, saw the securing of the Emerald Triangle – Cambodian casino industry along the border, which serves as a financial base for the Hun family – as more important than a personal relationship with the Thaksin family.