Survey: BN expected to retain Ayer Kuning, but 18k majority 'a stretch'

Survey: BN expected to retain Ayer Kuning, but 18k majority 'a stretch'


Published: Apr 25, 2025 1:10 PM
Updated: 4:20 PM


Summary

• Ilham Centre's survey predicts BN will retain the Ayer Kuning state seat in the by-election.

• The survey questions whether BN can achieve the Perak menteri besar's 18,000-vote majority target.

• Challenges include voter sentiment assessment, youth political fatigue, and competition from PN.

AYER KUNING POLLS | BN is not expected to face major hurdles in retaining the Ayer Kuning state seat in tomorrow’s by-election, according to research outfit Ilham Centre.

However, the more pressing question, it said, is whether the ruling coalition can achieve the ambitious 18,000-vote majority target set by Perak Menteri Besar Saarani Mohamad.

“BN relatively has no major problems in retaining this state seat.

“The main question is to what extent Pakatan Harapan’s cooperation within the unity government can boost voter support to achieve the high majority target (18,000 votes) announced by the Perak menteri besar,” said Ilham Centre chief executive Hisomudin Bakar.

“This target puts direct pressure on both BN and Harapan campaign machinery to prove the effectiveness of their cooperation through the election day results, even though the majority of respondents believe the target will be difficult to reach,” it said in a statement today.

Saarani had previously set a target of an 18,000-vote majority – a figure that analysts described as overly optimistic given the current political climate.

“The majority of respondents believe the target will be hard to achieve,” said Ilham Centre in its findings.

It noted that the calm campaign atmosphere and a “silent campaign” strategy had made it difficult to assess voter sentiment, especially among youth and outstation voters.

Vote transfer

Political fatigue among young voters was also flagged as a major challenge in this by-election.

However, Ilham Centre said the vote transfer from Harapan supporters to BN appeared smooth among Malay and Orang Asli voters, while Chinese voters remained cautious.

“DAP and MCA have had to move separately in efforts to regain this group’s trust.

“Among Malay voters, Perikatan Nasional remains BN’s main challenger, particularly in polling districts they controlled during the 15th general election,” it added.

According to the think tank, PN’s campaign focus is on retaining its support among Malay voters, especially young people who formed the backbone of its GE15 gains.

“If PN succeeds in maintaining its previous vote count, it would already be considered a significant achievement.

“GE15 saw PN dominate four Malay-majority polling districts in Ayer Kuning, challenging Umno’s traditional hold.

“As such, this by-election is a key test of whether PN can maintain that momentum or cede ground back to BN,” it said.

Three-cornered fight

The by-election was called following the death of incumbent assemblyperson Ishsam Shahruddin on Feb 22 due to a heart attack after participating in a football tournament in George Town, Penang.

In GE15, Ishsam, who was also Tapah Umno chief, won Ayer Kuning with a 2,213-vote majority in a five-cornered contest.

Ayer Kuning is one of two state seats under the Tapah parliamentary constituency.

Tomorrow’s vote will see a three-way race between BN’s Yusri Bakir, PN’s Abd Muhaimin Malek, and PSM’s Bawani KS.

This is the 11th by-election since GE15, following contests in Kuala Terengganu, Simpang Jeram, Pulai, Pelangai, Jepak, Kemaman, Kuala Kubu Baharu, Sungai Bakap, Nenggiri, and Mahkota.