Wednesday, March 14, 2012

GE-13 - UMNO going it alone?

As we know, Najib has been endeavouring to regain the support of the Indians and Chinese, although his deputy and lieutenants have been either deliberately or unwittingly throwing big spanners into his works. UMNO realizes too late now that it has lost the support of the Chinese.

Thus, in fighting for its survival, it has been rumoured that UMNO is considering the option of abandoning its BN allies, mainly MCA and Gerakan, many of whose candidates had depended on Taiko for ‘safe’ seats in Malay-majority constituencies.

Not surprisingly, given the cruciality of GE-13, UMNO members want to have their own party candidates in those seats, arguing that their allies like MCA and Gerakan, apart from not pulling their own weight among the non-Malay voters, are likely to be shunned by the Malay voters. Thus, wouldn’t it more logical to have UMNO candidates in the Malay-majority areas, with a greater chance of winning?

This tactic (rather than strategy) may not be as assured as the UMNO members may want to believe. Unless the Malay-majority for such a seat is in the region of at least 90% of the constituency's voters, the beneficiaries of such an UMNO election approach may well turn out to be PAS and PKR instead.

Take for example, federal or state seats which have registered voters with the following ethnic percentages, say notionally, Malays 70%, Chinese 27% and Indians 3%. And for simplicity sake, I’m assuming all 3% Indian voters will go BN though I'll say something about this later.

If UMNO abandons its MCA and Gerakan allies whose candidates (presumably Chinese) had previously stood as BN candidates in the model constituencies, then it would not be out of turn to say that it’ll be likely all 27% of Chinese voters, even BN supporters, will automatically ABU.

And I wouldn't be surprised if MCA and Gerakan members (though probably not their leaders with 'interests' in an UMNO victory wakakaka) will role-play the French Maquis wakakaka. That will leave UMNO and PAS (or PKR) to battle out for the 70% Malay votes.

Unless UMNO is confident it can garner at least 51% of the voters in each constituency (in the general case, only Malay votes with perhaps a sprinkling of Indian ones), the seat will go to PAS or PKR.

The question that need to be answered then is: will UMNO be able to win at least 48% of the votes in a constituency from just Malay votes? ... to add to the 3% pro-BN Indian votes.

The UMNO prospects will dim further if the percentage in registered Chinese votes in a constituency increases.

But wait - Don’t forget we’re assuming all the notional 3% Indian votes will go to BN which I did qualify by stating my earlier assumption was purely for simplicity sake. We may expect in general that the Indian votes will be split 80:20 in favour of UMNO. Thus, it’s again not good news for UMNO’s proposed tactic for GE-13.

However, what will be in favour of UMNO (leaving aside the EC and other public institutions in this discussion) would be the deep loyalty of the ’heartland’ for UMNO and the support of the royals, whose judicious royal nods for UMNO can exponentially enhance the commitment of the heartland.

Incidentally in this UMNO proposed scenario, to go it alone and f* the MCA & Gerakan wakakaka, PAS may actually fare better than PKR, whose de facto leader is currently being blackened by UMNO's allegations of his close associations with Israel. True or otherwise, the barrage of UMNO's badmouthing will have an effect on his appeal to the heartland and consequently those of his PKR party candidates.

Unfortunately, many in the heartland will accept that there is truth in the allegations of Anwar's close affiliations with Israel.

Anyway, PAS had in an earlier forecast, predicted it could win in 60 federal seats with mixed ethnicity (say, Malays 65%, Chinese 25 to 30, and Indians 5 to 10%) at the expense of UMNO.

With this UMNO new election doctrine of playing it safe, PAS' predictions may prove prophetic. Maybe that's why the Erdogens have been successful in keeping a tight leash on the Ulama faction, probably whispering "Now, don't you guys f* it up when we are so close to realizing our dreams, so shut the f* up!" wakakaka.

But I wonder whether UMNO is falling into the 'play safe' ethnic trap that PKR had walked into in the Ijok and Hulu Selangor by-elections. Then, PKR considered the ethnicity of the party candidate for election overrode everything, including its claim as a multi-racial party.

By contrast, in the Ijok and Hulu Selangor by-elections. UMNO had daringly showed it was willing to stand an Indian in each of the constituencies. PKR on the other hand ignored firstly the appeals of its Youth vice-chief S. Manikavasagam and secondly, the arguments of Malaysiakini CEO Premesh Chandra, Dr Chandra Bose and at that time 'still PR-friendly' Dr Chandra Muzaffar wakakaka for PKR to put its money where its claimed multi-racial mouth was, by nominating Indian candidates as well.

But alas, in the Ijok by-election, Superb Superman Supremo bypassed his so-called buddy Nallakaruppan and parachuted in Khalid Ibrahim - wakakaka, another reason for Nalla to be pissed off with the Great One.

The same PKR play-safe mentality was again seen in Hulu Selangor, though of course at that time we weren’t aware that someone in PKR had already seen Zaid Ibrahim as a future competitor in the PKR leadership hierarchy and sabo him kau kau by providing UMNO with photos of Zaid’s imbibing forbidden ambrosia wakakaka.

Naturally, the Indians were utterly furious with Anwar’s choices for the Ijok and Hulu Selangor by-elections, and accused PKR of 'cakap tak serupa bikin' in its claimed multi-racial credentials.

To recapitulate, Najib and the BN not only won the two by-elections with an Indian candidate in each, but in doing so, that was, putting up non-Malay candidates, also the moral high ground.

But that’s all gone to waste because today the non-Malay voters won’t recall Najib’s daring 1Malaysia gamble in Ijok and Hulu Selangor, more so with this rumour of UMNO pushing aside candidates of its allies in a new UMNO gambit.

Just how in the world has the Chinese swung over from Tunku's UMNO to a once-feared PAS, and to such an extent that UMNO has to evolve an election strategy that assumes no Chinese support? Where's the muhibbah support that UMNO enjoyed in 1999 and 2004?

Big time f*up? That’s for UMNO to answer.


  1. KT,it will make no difference.Umno/BN is going to lose the coming GE anyway.

  2. Malacca CM once said
    Umno did not need non-Malays to survive
    The party could walk the mines
    In the general elections

    The politics of 1Malaysia
    Politically it isn't working
    Even funding from Federal government
    Bypassing the opposition party

    Bee Anne set up coordinators
    In the States managed by PR
    So is 1Malaysia working?
    We pay our taxes but divide unfairly

    MCA , Gerakan and MIC
    The leaders should wake up
    They talk so much of the publicity runs
    All courtesy of their own newspapers and televisions

    In the coming general election
    The people must break free of the yolk
    We don't owe these leaders any favors
    They forget the people so the people should retire them

  3. If only Najib had the guts and determination to stick to the original plan , UMNO and BN would now have been well on it's way to winning back it's 2/3 majority.
    Moving back to the centre; re-opening up key areas of the economy to Nons; open tenders; dismantling the NEP; truly repealing the ISA - not ISA 2.0 like he proposes now. All would have been major steps to neutralize Pakatan Rakyat.

    Alas, guts and determination are not what this silver-spooned playboy (murderer ???) possesses. Instead, he flirted with Perkosa, created even more NEP platforms, issued more mega projects than his predecessors.....
    It's now the end of the road for Najib. Not winning back the 2/3 majority will make him the shortest serving PM in Malaysian history.
    UMNO may still win by appealing to the basest race-baiting, but it has lost middle Malaysia.

  4. You must be kidding. It's DAP which should go it alone.
    The Pakatan ties are only simbiotic. A very loose component that is so fragile and can break anytime.
    It's just a sleeping convenience. Lying (not sleeping) in the same bed but dreaming different dreams. Most times having nightmares.
    BN coalition has stood the test of time. They need each other to unite the different races. Of course MCA, MIC and Gerakan need UMNO more than UMNO needs them.
    It's only the Malays who can vote the non-Malays in.
    UMNO . UMNO can win if it stands alone. But for togetherness, it will never happen.
    KT, you're not writing about your sweetie, Ambiga. She's joining PAS as the VP. Hahaha.
    Dap missed the boat lor in getting her as the prized passenger.

  5. all or nothing - i suggest umno to just ditch mca and gerakan for good and field umno in the constituencies they contested. why share with the losers when can maximize the profit. being benevolent and tolerant will not get rewarded in politics anyway. umno will still win, mca and gerakan are excess baggages. if it's razak, sure he will do this.

  6. Anon 11:10pm

    If Umno were to ditch its mistresses,it will lose more seats than with them as sex partners.Because in some Malay majority constituencies the Malay votes will be split almost even.So they still need the Chinese and Indian votes too.If not they would have divorced eons ago.

  7. Guys ! After the most incredible, terrible shock of the 2008 tsunami suffered by BN, you can bet your last ringgit that Umno will NOT be caught with their pants down the second time, come hell or high water.

    If they could, they would just love to round up all the opposition leaders and ISA-ed them and shut down the internet.

    But since Umno and its flunkies have declared time and again this is a 'democratic' country, they will have to forego that easy way out and employ even more thoroughly this time their trusted methods of gerrymandering, phantom votes, postal votes....and a whole new bunch of electorial tricks from up their v v long sleeves.

    Be very convinced.....that BN CAN-NOT LOSE....although BN wants the people to believe they can lose !

    And after they had won this GE13, the next 5 years will see the mother of all plundering and pillaging, the likes not seen in such 'grand' scale before.

    Then soon afer, we will join the ranks of PIIGS. When the M (for Malaysia) is added to the PIIGS acronym.....we will get PIMIGS ?

  8. KTemoc wrote: Just how in the world has the Chinese swung over from Tunku's UMNO to a once-feared PAS, and to such an extent that UMNO has to evolve an election strategy that assumes no Chinese support?

    The strident, overt racism and discriminatory policies displayed by UMNO and its supporters have so deeply wounded the feelings of the nons that the nons would vote for anything except BN.

    It's like cutting off one's nose to spite one's face; or the samurai who throw the contents of his disembowelment at his tormentor.

  9. Never seen UMNO b resorts to hooliganism disrupting Anwar road shows...3 times..Nurul once and MCA had to perform at Penand to please Najib.
    That itself indicates how desperate Najib is.
    MCA and Gerakan thrown out at 12th GE.
    They got it standing with Chinese majority or cashing in UMNO b's so call sure win.
    UMNO b is wounded party...and Najib had to rushed in to replace Dollah,
    Better a mission impossible than with no mission with no hopes.
    It is gift for Najib to perform.
    Had it been Dollah..still a PM...13th GE...long gone and Najib in jail for sure.
    That's putting the scenario at it's right start talking.
    "Big time f*up? That's for UMNO to answer" said it all.
    Personally..I think Najib is balless..gutless...and with his famous flip flopping weird character...Rosmah also gave up advising him...for she knows their days are numbered too.
    Yes...UMNO b...big time fucked none other than Najib himself.
    He insults and underestimating Malaysians intelligence...and overestimating how invincible UMNO b party is... like a child that keeps on living in an unrealistic world.
    Be it..for or against opinions..the real deal depends on 13th GE.
    The longer Najib delays..the clearer is the picture..Najib wants to stay out of jail..accompanied by long as he can.
    I bet you....if he can make a deal to stay free from all charges for him at Rosmah.....he will immediately declare 13th GE.
    That is another story....for country and people...depending on how you look at the situations.
    PR knows..People Power controls..not any political all.

  10. Its a very straightforward choice in a contest between DAP vs BN or PAS vs BN.

    Now, if its a contest between BN-UMNO and PKR...that's a tough one.

    Between Mr. Putrid and Mr. Stinking...which one to choose aaa ?

    Maybe I'll just draw cartoons on my ballot paper...

  11. Will dis happen in Bolehland?

  12. Imagine what would have happpened if Zaid "Chug-a-Lug" Ibrahim had won the Hulu Selangor seat, given what we now know of the subsequent actions of Zaid.

    Probably another BN-friendly Independent MP ?

  13. That skunk wants attentions...wants to be a hero..whichever ways he can get it.
    He is not born to be a politician.
    Zaid Ibrahim...cannot be trusted....similar to Raja Petra.
    He is like Najib..finishing himself without anyone finishing him.

  14. 2004 was not a swell of muhibbah support for UMNO.

    It was in fact a massive vote for change. People hungered, thirsted for change after decades of Mahathirism... They thought Abdullah Badawi represented that with me, don't work for me was what he said.
    He took the mantle of Al-Ghazali the incorruptable Persian scholar..

    UMNO totally misread the signs. It went for business-as-usual, thinking it had massive support. More racist policies, more leakage, more thuggery, more mega projects.

    The result was the 2008 tsunami.

    Najib ???? Another "Change" spinner...

  15. Zaid 'Chug-a-Lug' Ibrahim...? Mmmm, coming from a self confessed 'chugger' herself, to what depth these mindless moronic myrmidons will not sink into ?

  16. If Najib has gone on his original plan to replace NEP with NEM where all deserving races will benefit, and look after the welfare of all races i.e. giving scholarships to deserving students irregardless of race, then, BN can rule forever, because all races will be happy with them. If they treat all races equally and not as second class citizens for the nons, there will be less of brain-drained, more happy citizens, more investors coming here and less businesses relocating for fear of NEP, then, our economy will be robust. BN will not need to play race issue, need not fear of losing elections.

  17. Najib and UMNO b cannot treat all Malaysians equal.
    They can't treat their own race to you expect them to treat other races equal?
    Their race and religion dirty politics are too deeply rooted... with encouraging corruptions thrown into it...hoping all Malaysians love money more than principles in like.
    Where do Najib have any principles in life to show young good..all will like to copy and follow his examples?
    Forget about Najib.
    He does not have a mind of his own. He is a show dog PM.
    Real power...Mahathir and the UMNO b Supreme Council....YET this is split now.
    You see...when they keep fooling citizens..with race and religion politics...and show how corrupt they can be..with no fear.. that is to say...UMNO b owns all...and will govern forever.
    Imagine....such big crooks like Diam and Mahathir are advising openly feeling no shame...stolen billions.

  18. This is such a good opportunity for Buttercup and all pro UMNB b or MCA and Gerakan guys/gals to debate...and throw all they can to protect their heroes.
    Why the great silence?
    As you can doing a parrot.
    Is that how BN members expect BN to win the 13th GE election? ...and hooligans... keep following PR leaders to disrupt their road shows?

  19. Monsterball said:
    "Najib and UMNO b cannot treat all Malaysians equal. They can't treat [even] their own race to you expect them to treat other races equal? Their race and religion dirty politics are too deeply rooted."

    Monsterball, what you wrote above is brilliant! It's like - bingo - you have scored a bullseye!!

  20. Why everyone says BN is going to lose this coming GE? Those feelings are just to make you feel good, and those feelings are also make PR men feel good, but the actuall fact is that BN is going to win, simply because majority of the fence sitters are fed up of the stupid moves syok sendiri of the PR leaders !!!

  21. "Why everyone says BN is going to lose this coming GE?"
    The signs are all there..unless you are blind or read only papers and watch TV news only.
    "majority of the fence sitters are fed up of the stupid moves syok sendiri of the PR leaders!!!"
    Is that so?
    Then tell Najib to declare the 13th GE date now.
    Anyway...keep talking. Keep dreaming...plenty fence sitters.
    It's some UMNO b members...fence sitters...not the ordinary man in thew street Malaysians....the People Power....and out of the 2 million new young voters registered...don't play politics.
    They want change.
    I guess Anon 11.43PM..wants UMNO b to govern FOREVER....because he have been told...his race own Malaysia and UMNO b is his protector and Savior.