Tuesday, May 08, 2018

The 'Last Supper'

From Malaysiakini's Why election predictions are at odds with Harapan's optimism (extracts):


Malaysian last last last supper 

Merdeka Center is back with its Nostradamus-like prophecies. Malaysia’s independent pollster predicts that BN will prevail in GE14 despite losing grounds of popular support.

Their survey predicts that Pakatan Harapan would win 43.7 percent of the popular vote while BN would obtain 40.3 percent of the popular vote. In the last general election, the opposition coalition had 3.49 percent more of the popular vote compared to BN. In predictions for GE14, the difference in predicted popular vote is 3.4 percent.


A Selangor government-owned think-tank, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), predicted that Harapan would retain Selangor’s legislative assembly but could lose their two-thirds majority, as BN is expected to win more seats in the state. Can we draw anything from these predictions?

In 2013, Merdeka Center ran their surveys too. Prior to the elections, they estimated Pakatan Rakyat to win 89 seats and BN 85 seats. 46 parliamentary seats were labeled a “toss-up” that could have gone any way, and another 2 would fall to parties aligned to neither BN nor Pakatan.

What was the final result? They were spot on with regards to the number of seats won by Pakatan, as Pakatan did indeed obtain 89 seats. However, BN outdid the predictions by obtaining 133 seats.


Despite the large turnouts in rallies for Harapan and its chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s revelation that he is optimistic judging from attendances, how is it the predictions speak a different story?

Firstly, this is because most of Harapan’s rallies are held in areas where they triumphed in the previous poll. People in those areas are not going to add to the existing tally anyway. Remember, the huge turnouts were there even during the last elections that everyone thought BN was going to be washed away in.


Secondly, one has to consider the fact that PAS is not part of Harapan. It would be foolish to assume PAS is insignificant. Smaller crowd turnouts in street rallies after DAP divorced PAS cannot be taken for granted. While it is true that PAS would stand no chance in urban areas, why not take a drive to the rural areas and witness for yourself whether PAS or Harapan boasts more support?

Thirdly, the redelineation exercise that recently concluded will only favour BN. In the 1999 general election under Mahathir’s leadership, BN lost its two-thirds majority and only obtained 56.5 percent of the popular votes, which is a drop of over 8 percent compared to the previous elections. Following a redelineation exercise prior to GE11, BN got back their two-thirds majority in the 2004 polls, which is also partly due to people rejoicing over Mahathir’s resignation. [...]


Mahathir’s lack of apathy towards those who are not in his favour will work against Harapan too. Firstly, Mahathir’s visit to the late former PAS president Fadzil Noor’s grave 16 years after his demise has not worked out well, especially in the Malay heartland. Subsequently, he wanted to visit the grave of late PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.




After slandering the faith and ways of the late Nik Aziz in the past, it came as no surprise that the family pulled down the shutter on Mahathir. Dr Mahathir is a political chameleon who would go to any extent to win.


The youth of today may not know him, but those of us who lived through his tyranny will never cast the ballot to favour him. In less than 48 hours, we shall see if Merdeka Center’s prediction is right again. I am sure many of the older generation are eagerly waiting to celebrate Mahathir’s first defeat, rather than caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s victory.






31 comments:

  1. I am still waiting for exit poll. If there is any. Then we talk

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  2. arithmetically i dun know how ph can win, since ph doesn't seem to have any strategy to deal the dedak eating pas n sarawak parties, but regardless how, we dun give up n would continue to fight tis racial cum authoritarian cum corrupted regime, we must kick out all tis pencuri n penyamun. we will support mahathir, hidup mahathir.

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    1. What I am very disappointed with you is that you are part of the wind below Mahathir's wing attempting to tidal a tsunami fitnah mengherdik, mengcaci dan mengHINA Najib personally as if there is nothing good (minus one million) in his management of this country. There is a lot of emotionality rather than intelligibility in you. All that you and Mahathir want is for Najib/UMNO/BN to MAMPUS, so to speak. You memang zalim la HY. Tonight, let's wait to see whether Allah will make your bad niat come true.

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    2. Pakatan Hell Hounds can't see logic, balance nor civility. Anyone not supporting their new God Mahathir must be savaged and ripped to shreds. It's exactly like the days of the fanatical anwaristas. Same people, different God, wakakaka

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    3. which part of my comment is zalim? at least i wish mahathir hidup, unlike dap.

      n y pas contest in parliament/adun seat that is traditionally fight btw dap n mca, can u kt explain since u r a so call dap supporters? so how my deduction that pas is on dedak is not logical?

      n pray tell how calling bn/umno racial cum authoritarian cum corrupted regime is wrong?

      dun let yr partisan n hatred blind u both.

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    4. of course PAS nak kacau, but with provided subsidy, wakakaka

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    5. HY, your head is filled with speculation, presumption and conspiracy theories.

      My training is that Najib (or even Lim Guan Eng to be fair) is considered innocent unless proven guilty, "Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat “the burden of proof is on the one who declares, not on one who denies”.

      I believe your Anwar had been given a fair trial but you would not agree, would you? Because you believe that the judges are dedak eaters. And thus to you, your Anwar had not sondol-ised, and is an excellent leader and would be a great PM. Dream on...

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    6. Why is PAS not allowed to contest wherever they want? Why should DAP be calling the shots on who gets the right to contest? Who the fuck does DAP thinks it is? Isn't this authoritarian?

      So is it wrong to call PH/DAP racial cum authoritarian cum corrupted regime?

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    7. innocent unless proven guilty? then mahathir is the most innocent pm in the world.

      my defense of anwar is selective prosecution, and our diff value sys. i dun understand y one is incarcerated for six years x2 bec he insert a penis into a ass? wtf is that?

      anwar is pm or no is of no consequence to me, that's the same reason y i can support mahathir to become pm, n i can turn around to support hadi if he dare go against a racial cum authoritarian cum corrupted regime. that's the dissimilarity between u n me.

      n i borrow kampong lad phrase here...hepi voting.

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    8. so who was responsible for losses in Maminco, Mukawasa, Forex, Perwaja etc

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    9. genius, we never claim pas not allowed to contest, we asked y pas wan to contest n whats their motive. aduh, i told u to read more so u can improve yr comprehension skill, n know how to go with the flow of the conversation.

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    10. innocent unless proven guilty mah...

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    11. When umno(baru)/bn mandated to rule for another 5 yrs which is highly likely but not impossible if they lose, put the bapak penswastaan on trials for what he did and then he wud be found guilty sentenced to 30 yrs imprisonment, or denda rm100k or 100 lashes or combination of all three or face firing squad, what next?

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    12. unless proven guilty? it's proven - he even admitted it in, for example, mukawasa

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    13. if proven guilty then catch him, what the hell tis govt is doing?

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    14. My take: if you win Najib; move on with your BN 300+ manifesto. Forget about that itu 'kubur kata mari' punya orang. Let 1MDB takes its whatsoever course as DoJ wishes. Start preparing for a snap GE15 in about 3 years.

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    15. HY has comprehension problem. Is GE not an open contest that anyone who're eligible can join? What right do you have to doubt PAS motivation in contesting wherever they so choose? Its their right to contest, not your right to question their moves! If they're eligible, they have every reason to contest whichever they so fit.

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  3. In democracies; even those not of Westminsters, there is historical precedence whereby the popularity winner might not be the overall winner. In football parlance, its not how many goals you scored but how many games you win.

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  4. Using the Last Supper analogy Jesus had a simple meal of bread and wine and the day after he was crucified. No rah rah.

    Tun's "last supper" was a simple speech, with no giveaways like BMW motorbike or flat screen TVs etc which were lucky-drawed at a nearby concert funded by the Treasury (Serigar was hosting...)

    Najib's "last supper" in Pekan was transmitted live on government TV, loaded with more giveaways: income tax returns for young people 26 and under, 5 day free toll, 2 more added days holidays etc...

    Tonight, let's see who gets crucified.

    Me, I don't care about the last supper. I'm heading for free brunch offered by Ben's and that bak kut teh place for those who can show the upright blue finger. Come to think of it I prefer if they mark my middle finger so I can proudly show it when I walk around today.

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    1. mahathir also offered 2 days public holiday, wakakaka

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  5. No problem if Harapan lose...just steal a few more states like Johor, Perak, Negeri 9, Malacca.....slowly...slowly we use state powers to Pecat and Keluar Malaya....thanks to johor Sultan documents...ALL states in Malaya can Sack MalaySiaL!!

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    1. are you suggesting secession? Whoa

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  6. There is No future for Malaysia's younger generation under a Kleptocracy, regardless of spin by Ball-carriers like Andrew Sheng and Ktemoc.

    Most of the older generation will be voting for their Grandchildren's future.

    The Malaysian tsunami is Here....

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    1. In football parlance, its not how many goals you scored but how many games you win. ~ John

      Scroll up.

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  7. Can someone do a count how many times KT post the same image over & over again? My mental memory tells me I see some images so many times, they can easily exceed 10 times (/posts).

    BTW, I have been hearing opposition r leading some rural seats in S'wak. Tis is quite shocking becoz I alwiz consider S'wak rural seats as walkovers 4 BN. FIXED DEPOSITS MAH! but too early 2 count e chickens until e eggs hatched. Hope there r CAs around so vote manipulation is harder, especially rural seats.

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  8. finish voting at 3.00pm, take almost 1.5 hours, all other saluran not more than 3 people at one time bot mine is more than 100, not sure how spr distribute the number, all anti umno/bn supporters sardined in same saluran? if that is the case, we sure win la by looking at the long queue.

    btw i vote gobind for parliament n mariah mahmud for adun, both from pkr wakaka. tis is all i could do. win or lose let the rakyat decide.

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    1. My spouse in Lane 2; she voted in the morning; long queue and waited for about 2 hours. I voted at about 2pm, in Lane 1, no queue, waited for only 1 minute. For both us, honestly, it is either Najib or Hadi. We decided to split, I vote for Najib and she for PAS.

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    2. Nope. From my observation in my polling, 1&2 for OKUs & elderly, 3&4 for senior citizens, 5&6 for others; that's you and me.

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    3. Saluran 1 is a vip lane, cuma red carpet saja tak ada.

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    4. Interesting. Based on the candidates photos of my area, seems like they had to do it on upper floors, namely 3&4 or 5&6. Perhaps candidates are not VIP enough.

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