As a Penang lang I apologise if I show a lack of interest in Johor politics, save how many federal seats Pakatan or DAP or Amanah can wrestle from the BN, wakakaka.
The state seats should be completely left to the fate of the 'gods' (voters, wakakaka again).
Liew Chin Tong, DAP Chief Strategist and one of my fave DAP pollies (the other would be Guan Eng, Kian Ming and Teresa Kok while the rest I'm not familiar with save Uncle Lim KS, who I have come to lament of lately, wakakaka) has stated in the MM Online the Battle of Kluang, that in GE-14, Johor may well be the bellwether fights for the southern state.
Bellwether means a indication of likely trends, usually throughout the nation. In other words whichever coalition or party (BN, Pribumi-Pakatan or UMNO by itself, or Pribumi by itself or Pakatan by itself) wins in Johor, it will also win the nation and form the next government.
I have some doubts regarding Liew's prediction, much as I respect and admire his political intellectualism and astuteness, for the following reasons:
(i) Advent of Pribumi and the associated sevility of PKR and Amanah
(ii) Dedak-ness of PAS and its role as a 3rd party in 3-corner fights
(iii) HRH's recent announcement to give Najib a chance to govern.
Firstly, one cannot trust Pribumi because its aim or Mahathir's aim is solely self-interest with an individual's (or his son's) elevation to PM to replace Najib. Don't expect Pribumi to truly replace the current UMNO or to defeat the Grand Olde Party for PKR or Amanah. It merely wants to replace Najib and that's that, whereafter business will be as normal, whether under the rule of UMNO or Pribumi. There'll be no difference.
On an associated note to above, how effective will Moody be considering almost everyone knows of his illicit affair with one hot looking someone's-wife nor now ex-wife (but prior to recent developments WAS in fact married to someone else).
Mind, knowing our Malay culture, so long as the culprit is a male, more so a 'Melayu First', most Malays would be willing to 'close one eye' and smirk silently at how 'cerdek' he has been, to screw a non's nyonya.
(a Malay male's wee naughtiness is OK lah especially if it involves a non's wife, so long as it does not affect his on family, wakakaka. After all, didn't uber Malay-male Ibrahim Ali say Malay men like to play around with women who are below 50 years old, wakakaka).
Secondly, how effective will PAS be against Amanah? Amanah has to kill off the PAS ulama once and for all and the time now seems to be right, but its servility to Pribumi, after PKR has sucked on Mahathir as a lead example, has been troubling.
Amanah is supposed to be a right thinking virtually intellectual Islamic Party but its subservience to Pribumi with the likes of Moody is worrying to me. Has it been seduced by Mahathir's bullshit? What happened to its erstwhile higher prupose and righteous thinking?
And Amanah shouldn't blame Azmin Ali as the latter has his own agenda (beyond Mahathir's own agenda). One day AA may be the actual PM, with his machai TC sucking on him as the new Liew Tong Lai, wakakaka again.
And thirdly, to what extent will the royal imprimatur be effective among the Heartland of Johor? Has there been a done-deal somewhere by some twosome?
From reasonable observations in recent times. I reckon the royal-everywhere want their prerogatives back, and have been gently and perhaps not so subtly, flexing their royal muscles.
The Johor equation is not so plain black and white.