Leaving aside the complete unreliability of frogs, for simplicity sake let us still view that 20 of Sabah's 25 federal seats are held by BN. In neighbouring Sarawak, with peh-mo in almost total control, the BN holds 29 of its 31 federal seats.
If BN retains the East Malaysian status quo after the next election, then Najib would not be wrong in claiming Sabah and Sarawak are BN's fixed deposits.
But will BN?
222 - 56 East Malaysian seats = 166 peninsula federal seats
Immediately post GE-12, BN held 140 to Pakatan's 82 (whence AI had laughingly claimed he could obtain an additional deformed 30 MPs by 916 to give a Pakatan 112 majority versus BN's 110 wakakaka).
Thus, out of BN's 140, there were only (140 - 49 East Malaysian BN federal seats =) 91 federal seats in Peninsula.
Recall, immediately post GE-12, Pakatan had 75 peninsula federal seats, providing us with a OK Corral-like stand-off in Peninsula of 91 BN seats versus 75 Pakatan seats, a mere majority of 16.
Thus, assuming voters continue to vote Pakatan in those same 75 federal constituencies in Peninsula, the coalition only requires victory in another 9 seats to put BN gasping for breath in Peninsula like an ikan kembong landed on hot burning beach sands.
And in Peninsula, such a victory is very doable with doom and gloom already forecast for BN in the peninsula states of Johor, NS and Malacca, and which may explain UMNO becoming more and more feral (thuggish), with the UMNO Home Minister even talking like a petulant immature boy.
Mind though, BN (UMNO) may claw a couple back in Kedah because of one screwed-up bloke there who prefers UMNO to Pakatan's DAP and who has not cooperated well as a Pakatan leader should.
Assuming optimistically for an instant, Pakatan in GE-13 wins 84 federal seats in Peninsula to BN's 82 (and IMHO, it's quite likely to be more than just 84 wakakaka) it needs another 28 seats in East Malaysia to form the new Malaysian government.
Of that required 28 East Malaysian seats, the DAP has won and thus is fairly well entrenched in 3.
Will Pakatan be able to win another 25?
Alas, PAS has been obdurately selfish in Labuan, knowing full well it can't win in that constituency yet insisting it wants to stand its candidate there again. In GE-12, its candidate came last in a 3-corner fight and lost his deposit wakakaka.
Nonetheless I believe Pakatan is pressing the correct buttons when it promises:
- To restore autonomy within Sarawak and Sabah and making the two states equal partners.
- To increase national integration between Sarawak, Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia through a fair power-sharing agreement.
- To set up a Royal Commission to resolve problems of citizenship and illegal immigration in Sarawak and Sabah.
- To restore native customary rights over land and establishing a land commission.
- To ensure appointment of Sarawakians and Sabahans as heads of government departments at the state and federal level, within the state.
- To increase oil royalties from 5 percent to 20 percent.
- To ensure that infrastructural development in Sarawak and Sabah be up to par with Peninsular Malaysia
Najib has recently lost his cool and gone the way Dr Mahathir has, preposterously and pariah-lishly preaching a Malay last stand at Fort Ketuanan Melayu, indications of their total desperations.
But then, what else can Pakatan do to improve its election prospects, that is, besides Anwar's deformasi modus operandi, namely frogology?