Thursday, April 10, 2008

Why the froggie volte-face on reformasi

Azmin: BN MPs ready to cross!

So says Anwar Ibrahim’s right hand man today to Malaysiakini today at the party headquarters in Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur. This is the 2nd time he has informed reporters of blue coloured froggies.

However, this time he shares with us staggering news. He proclaimed: “It was out of our expectation. We only need 30 more seats, but the response is so overwhelming now, 30 seats are the minimum (we can get).”

Holy Gurun – kurang kurang tiga puluh katak!

However, when pressed for details, he was coy about which party those katak-puru are from. Instead he said that PKR will make further announcement at a right time.

According to him, the table has changed. He stated: “It is Abdullah who is running out of time, we are not, we will announce the details at a right time.”

Malaysiakini reported he brushed aside suggestions that such defections would be against the voters’ interest as the MPs were elected under the BN banner.

He claimed: “We did not offer any money to them (to crossover), what we offered is that their voters will be defended with fairness and justice.”

Well, you decide whether kataks jump around for no reason other than to cross the road.

Everyone (including Anwar Ibrahim) knows that Anwar Ibrahim wants to be PM.

But I have always said Anwar Ibrahim wants to go back to UMNO to be PM. I haven’t changed my belief. I won’t go again into what I have blogged on numerous occasions why he has been ‘soft’ on AAB, and why he has never reported any case of UMNO money corruption.


Never burn the bridge back to UMNO!

I won’t go over again on my speculation on how Anwar had hoped for an UMNO-BN without a 2/3 majority while his core members in PKR win enough seats in the GE to hold the balance of power that would enable UMNO-BN to regain the 2/3 majority ….. provided he and core members are invited back into UMNO.

But then what about 08 March 2008?

What about Anwar Ibrahim becoming PM as de facto leader of the so-called Barisan Rakyat if he indeed gets his froggies?

Well, certainly I would say he has achieved his pre election hopes, and more!

UMNO-BN has lost its 2/3 by 8 MPs, and mow marn t’ai (no worries), PKR core members should number at least 8.

A simple majority in Parliament is a party (or coalition) commanding the confidence of 112 MPs. The so-called BR has 82. Add 30 froggies and Bob’s your uncle. Thus Anwar Ibrahim can be PM after winning the due by-election blah blah blah.

So, what’s kaytee talking about Anwar Ibrahim still wanting to go back to UMNO?

Well, unfortunately in that 112 (maybe more, according to Azmin Ali), it’s made up of:

28 DAP
23 PAS
30 froggies
31 PKR, some of whom aren’t ‘core’ anwaristas – I can easily identify Dr Jeya as one. Would Wee be another? There’s more.

PM Anwar of the BR won’t be the same as a PM Anwar of UMNO-BN, because in the former, the power has to be split 4 ways.

Even if the froggies are all UMNO-istas there’s still 51 DAPs and PAS MPs to worry about. Even if he manages to win over PAS with agama, bangsa dan negara, there’ the inconvenient 28 DAPs, Dr Jeya and a number of PKR non-core members, who won’t lie down and roll on their back like the MCA, Gerakan and MIC did for UMNO.

He cannot trust DAP to back him on all things, which could be a possible explanation for some observers why, pre and post election, some significant pro PKR people had been demon-ising DAP, as if they wanted to destroy their 'ally' as a party (they do!), where subsequently (and hopefully) all DAP members would then leave and join PKR.

… which is why he will go back to UMNO ….. after key members in UMNO have been shaken enough by a froggie scare campaign to insist on recalling him.

… unless of course a tidal wave of UMNO-istas come over to join him, to give him a solid 112 without counting the 28 DAP MPs, Dr Jeya and the PKR non-core members. This is less likely as it would require something in the order of almost 90 UMNO MPs inclusive of Sabahan MPs.

Which will it be? Anwar being recalled or less likely, UMNO-istas swarming across?

There’s a third possibility – UMNO feels confident enough to buy off any frogs. UMNO knows if it can just hold the fort for 4 more years, or even less, it will continue in power.

I had read Ong Kian Ming’s earlier post-election analysis where I believe he mentioned the swing that led to the Opposition winning 5 States and denying the BN of 2/3 majority, was a humongous 35% by the Chinese, 30% Indians and only 5% Malays. I believe some of those 5% Malay swing could have been due to Dr M's personal campaign against AAB.


I recall also (from Ong Kian Ming's article) the belief among many Chinese that they might have overdone the swing.

Given all these, it may well be that this tsunamic election was only a once-in-40-years wonder, like 1969, and won't be repeated in 2012. Whatever the debate on this (maybe I’ll do a post on this tomorrow) Azmin Ali has been wrong - he didn't dare say: "It is not Abdullah who is running out of time, we are .....”


Anwar Ibrahim knows it’s now or never for him, to get back into UMNO, and f* the volte-face on his reformasi.

34 comments:

  1. Ktemoc, I just realize how nasty you're! What's wrong with you hypocritical people? So you'd rather be ruled by the ever heinously evil regime BN which will always play so dirty and manipulate the election so that they will stay in power??!! The BN/Umno got back into power especially from the last election through fraud and evil fascist means; and they will do so again for the next one! I WONDER HOW HYPOCRITICAL PEOPLE LIKE YOU WOULD FEEL IF YOU'RE IN JAIL AND TORTURED LIKE THE BRAVE HINDRAF LEADERS; OR ARRESTED JUST FOR PRACTICING OUR FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND PEACEFUL ASSEMBLY AS HAD BEEN BRUTALLY SUPRESSED BEFORE THE ELECTION; OR ENDLESSLY FACING THE BRUTALITY AND EVILNESS OF THE POLICE FORCE AND SPECIAL BRANCH. AND HAVING TO ENDURE THE MASSIVE CORRUPTION OF BN. FURTHER, WHAT ABOUT THE MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF OUR NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND RURAL-TRADITIONAL COMMUNITIES' LANDRIGHTS FOR LOGGING AND GIANT CORPORATE BIOFUEL PLANTATIONS ESPECIALLY THE UGLY PALM OIL, AS ARE HAPPENING EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY WITH THE PENAN AND ORANG ASLI AREAS (LOOK UP www.bmf.ch FOR GOODNESS SAKE!). ALSO WHAT ABOUT THE UMNO'S EVIL ACT OF GRANTING "MALAY/BUMIPUTERA" IDENTITY TO MUSLIM FOREIGN WORKERS, REFUGEES AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ESPECIALLY FROM BANGLADESH, INDONESIA, SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AND PAKISTAN (WHY THE BIG WIN FOR BN IN BORNEO) JUST TO BUY THEIR VOTES FOR UMNO, AND MANY MANY MORE EVILNESS!!!!! OH YES, I NEED ALSO TO MENTION HOW UNSAFE THIS COUNTRY HAS BECOME FOR ALL MALAYSIANS, PARTICULARLY WOMEN AND CHILDREN!

    SO GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER; AND LET'S SUPPORT PAKATAN TAKEOVER OF THE GOVT RIGHT NOW! THERE'S NOTHING IMMORAL ABOUT REPENTENT BN POLITICIANS JUMPING SHIP, FOR THE SAKE OF JUSTICE, AND FOR THE PEOPLE! BESIDES, ALL HUMAN MAKES MISTAKES INCLUDING ANWAR, ME AND YOU, AS LONG AS THEY ARE NOT EVIL DEEDS! UNLESS YOU THINK YOU'RE PERFECT OF COURSE!

    NOOR AZA OTHMAN

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  2. Naughty KT, expose AI plot. ;)

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  3. I think you should look to your own DAP first. The impression I get is that it has fickle-minded fighting cocks who threaten to pull out from the elections, threaten to quit, and threaten not to attend ceremonies (and risk offending the Sultan and Malays in the process) when they don't get their ice-cream.

    The Mahathirists in UMNO will never let Anwar back. Anyway, there's not much future left in that party anyways, so I'm sure Anwar has that in mind...

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  4. Ha ha ha! My ribs...I can't laugh anymore. Anwar joining UMNO? Which UMNO? Ha ha! UMNO is yesterday. However, if you fear that DAP will be sidelined, then have your peace. It will not happen. All DAP needs is to accept the reality of this nation, respect the Sultans, not challenge the Malay Agenda which neither UMNO, PAS nor PKR can at any moment and stop being over ambitious like saying we need the Deputy PM post. It is not that I'm against them demanding what they deem fit, after all, human beings have ambitions and demands, but they need to be realistic. PKR also has Chinese MPs, so this time round we would have many Chinese Ministers. 7 at least.

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  5. I can see your worry. You fear that Malays will gang up against the rest and definately they hold more than 112 seats with 20 PKR Malays, 23 PAS and 79 UMNO. Which is a big majority. Boy, don't think that the Malays will sideline anyone. Anyway, DAP leadership was the 1st to declare their open support to Anwar as the PM immediately after Lim Guang Eng was sworn in. So, what's is that you are blabbering about? Oh, the usual crap!

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  6. not interested in your ulterior motives. go join BN if u feel so strongly against anwar.. bye bye

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  7. Robin Goodfellow9:52 pm, April 10, 2008

    My dear Ktemoc.

    I find you article interesting yet strangely disturbing.

    Interesting because of what Mr. Ong said about the Chinese Swing Voters; I utterly agree with him on that, you know.

    Disturbing because, UMNO, 8 seats short of 2/3 majority quaver in fear every time Anwar visits the East M'sia; AND

    Whereas PKR, 30 seats away from forming a government, issue, err, coy statements bordering on volte-ace with a degree of confidence unseen hiterto.

    Perhaps PKR folks are CONmen?

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  8. You have a fertile imagination but i like your fantasies.
    Did you ever consider the PM advising the King to dissolve Parliament before or after any move by the coalition?
    In a reelection, the present euphoria will be history. That is why the BN media has started scaring the Malays with Karpal's statement on Islam, the Selangor pig farm project and many more soon. The coalition might just keep Selangor, but Kedah and Perak are gone. Even Pas will be history.
    That my friend is my imagination and my fantasies.

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  9. Are you having a nightmare or what? This is the best time for us to see the abolishment of race-based political parties in Malaysia political scene. Why can't you dream a wet dream - having PR ruling the federal government. Let BN gone be by gone for good!

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  10. If this is punting, my bet is Ai will not go back to UMNO nor UMNO invite him back.

    AI has too much at stake with his supporters in PKR whether Malay, Chinese or Indian.

    It would be foolhardy, nay suicidal politically speaking, for AI to even contemplate it. What do you think AI's political future will be with his PKR supporters, DAP< PAS, the electorate, and even UMNO members? Sheer disgust I will say. No, it is virtually impossible for AI to do what you think he will do. I cannot imagine that scenario to be realistic for any thinking person to consider. More so for a person with the status and stature that AI is enjoying now.

    Beats me why you keep harping on this issue unless it is to increase readership? ;-)

    The more controversial the better eh?

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  11. Very disturbing scenario u have painted for us KT. Disturbing because it may just be possible in the god awful dirty world of politics, but I hope DSAI as a man, has a vision of a better future for malaysia and malaysians.

    To be remembered in the annals of our history as someone who alleviated the political scene in this country from the one horse race it has always been. To lead our nation into joining the ranks of developed and mature democracies.

    And NOT to be remembered in history as the greatest betrayer and backstabber our nation has ever known......

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  12. You referred to (from Ong Kian Ming's article) the belief among many Chinese that they might have overdone the swing.

    You seem to find comfort in that statement. But you completely overlook the assumptions.

    Of course that belief is not exactly something carved in stone. That belief has arisen after 50 years of having been told that BN = Government. Others opposition = demons. Demons are not government ..cannot govern. Chaos only will happen Oppositioon you see LKS and Karpal face enough. Surely cannot even operate a mamak stall want to govern country pula.

    But hey, its been a month....and its not stopped raining, traffic lights are working. Hospital is still open and doctors are still operating. Stock Market also recovered already. Schools are open and teachers are paid, Plane still flying out of KLICa, plate still got rice. Air still ogt oxygen to breathe,

    You see what I mean Kaytee? The opposition have called the bluff. That assumption about the belief you were talking about was valid on a certain premise. That premise is being chipped away by the day.

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  13. Azleena Lesboshita2:32 am, April 11, 2008

    Well, well, well... if what you postulate has some degree of truth then we are certainly living in interesting times, KT.

    So, what are we waiting for? Let's pull up a comfy armchair, and with a mug of beer in one hand and a bowl of popcorn in the other we'll sit back and ENJOY the show while it lasts!

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  14. silver surfer: AI/PKR has no real support lah. They just leech on PAS and DAP. Maybe vote swing in urban areas but have you read their manifesto which promises the sky?

    kl: DSAI, visionary? Tell me, besides his populist policies, what is his vision for Malaysia? Sell the country to IMF?

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  15. It's a scarry scenario you've painted. But certainly it's for food for a pretty shaky, already precarious, state of existance.

    All I can say is this, if the man has no pride left in him, despite all that he's suffered for and believed in, he would certainly go down in history as a modern day Hang Jebat!

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  16. Jed, Anwar has the opportunity to make up for his past questionable reputation today. Mahathir is the nightmare fully established and concluded. It's a very long trail. QED.

    KayTee is lost within one of his 3 favorite Bardos, that of Anwar Derangement. A comatose type of Bardos that makes him completely oblivious to any alternative awareness. Stick and stones can only break his bones, words especially cannot awaken him. ;)

    About Bardo:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bardo

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  17. I would like to clinically decompose some of the arguments here.

    This is Ong Kian Ming's analysis on the elections in Full.

    http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79604

    So when Ktemoc says "I recall also (from Ong Kian Ming's article) the belief among many Chinese that they might have overdone the swing" - no amount of fine detailed reading will find it there.

    Jed Yoong - "They (PKR) just leech on PAS and DAP"

    During the recent GE, most of the 31 Dewan Rakyat seats PKR won were in "unwinnable" mixed-race seats.

    So-called Unwinnable because in most cases neither DAP or PAS had been able to win them in 50 years - the electorate I live in (40% M, 50% C, 10% I) is an excellent example - 50 years under MCA MP.

    Of course PKR MPs are more than just Anwaristas. PKR has a manifesto. It has attracted support from a lot of Intelligent, Thinking people, contrary to your stereotype of dumb Anwaristas.

    Anwar Ibrahim isn't going back to UMNO - they absolutely don't want him, more importantly, he doesn't need UMNO as a party.
    PKR does need to gather support from some people who are currently in UMNO, just as it needs to pull over support from non-Malays who are currently in MCA, MIC or Gerakan. That's just logical - Barisan Nasional has a much bigger base membership than all the Opposition parties put together.

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  18. Thanks kk46,

    what does the following paragraph by Ong mean?

    "It is unlikely that so many voters would have voted for the opposition had they known in advance that the swing was going to be this big and that the state governments in Penang, Kedah, Perak and Selangor would fall. Many of them, especially the non-Malays would have been too fearful of the potential backlash from this happening."

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  19. Kaytee,
    That was a statement on the psychology of the non-Malay, especially Chinese electorate BEFORE the March 8 election.

    Remember, BN, MCA , MIC had been not-so-subtly telling people that there could be a repeat of May 13 if the Opposition won big.
    Yes, many non-Malays may not have voted Opposition AT THAT POINT if they had suspected that would happen to such an extent.

    But that is not the situation today. There were quiet cheers in the Chinese community when Lim Guan Eng announced open tenders. There were loud cheers in Perak when Mohd Nizar announced the land titles for new villagers.
    MCA Selangor looked really glum after the PR state government announced approval for the pig farm project - when they had to beg on their knees for Ali Rustam to give the pig farmers a 2 week reprieve

    Didn't I tell you before that in many ways March 8 changed the rules of the game in Malaysian politics ?

    Your mind is so Pre-March 8.

    I can't blame you because you haven't been in the country....nothing beats ground truth..

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  20. Hard to believe, but this Kalimulah-backed online newspaper is actually fairer and more level-headed towards Anwar Ibrahim and PKR than "Mulah"-KT.

    http://themalaysianinsider.com/mni/umno-chiefs-fixated-on-resurgent-anwar.html

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  21. ;-) kk, you have not only interpret it the way you want but you have now taken to calling me names ha ha ha.

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  22. Ya-lah, I have to agree Mulah is too disrespectful.
    Shall I say "Ayatollah"-KT ?.....
    :-)

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  23. ha ha ha, anything you like lah ;-) if this sort of name calling makes you happy ke ke ke

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  24. "I can't blame you because you haven't been in the country....nothing beats ground truth.." - kittykat46

    As a result we get a good laugh don`t we. Like the one where he uses his uncle as an authority on Tunku and Tunku`s support for the monarchy and the example was Kashmir.

    Must say it was one of his better ones. It`s been a great pub laughing topic on bloggers. ROTFL.

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  25. ya-lar, kitty kat. dun be disrespectful. it's ayatollah, OK! come on! ayatollah kaytee!

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  26. anon 2.02 pm.

    don't belittle KT's uncles, OK. they are all very plugged in and connected one. so are his aunties, cousins, etc.

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  27. Noor Aza Othman,

    please enlighten me... what so brave about Hindraf...please look around you, why now everything that we had is not good enough, not fair enough not accomodating enough. Everything is evil nowadays...theres nothing in this world that can change the fact that Malaysia is the only Islamic country with muslim leader which manage to handle many races and being fair to all. for the past 50 years we manage well...you want change, change the attitude.. look back, why you have what you have now. how many malays,chinese & indian know english before, can write and speak so well.my grandmother was illiterate, but now we are succesfully.Those who desn't and didn't get what they want are not trying hard enough. why should we change something which is proven succesful with uncertainties. i am a Malay, proud to be born as malay, i can be as brave as hindraf leader...but do we need to demand like they did, no beacuse we malays...we tolerate, patient is a virtue until we lost it to one man greed.

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  28. `Malaysia is the only Islamic country with muslim leader which manage to handle many races and being fair to all`

    Mimpi saja.

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  29. Relax folks, dont get so jumpy over KT's analysis. Actuali,KT's real name is Mukhriz bin YAB Tun Dr mahathir. Thats why he dislike Anwar such much one.

    Oh, Jed Yong chick is actually cover name for Datuk Paduka Azalina Osman Said.

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  30. Thanks anonymous for tippig us about the real identity of these nasty bloggers! I call them COWARDS for hiding behind such lies; especially even using a Chinese identity despite of being Malay! God, it's so patehtic; these has what the Malay leaders from Unmo has become!

    By the way, mankapak _ you've such a violent name; you've violent tendencies or something for whom you regard as your enemies??!!! YOU DON'T SCARE ME! MY FATHER WAS A KAMPUNG BOY IN THE ARMY FIGHTING THE MAO-COMMUNIST (i.e THEY'RE FAKE SOCIALIST BY THE WAY!!); YOU BLOODY COWARD WHO CAN'T EVEN REVEAL YOUR BLOODY REAL NAME!AND DESPITE THAT HE DESPISES WHAT UMNO GREEDY SCUM LEADERS HAVE AND STILL ARE DOING TO THIS SORRY NATION-STATE! MALAYSIA BY THE WAY, IS NOT AN ISLAMIC STATE GET IT! I TOO WAS BRAINWASHED LIKE A DEADWOOD LIKE YOU BY THE GREEDY SCUMS IN UMNO TO SUPPORT THE NEP; BUT I REALIZE WHAT A SCAM IT WAS! IT WAS ONLY INTERESTED IN HELPING MALAYS/MUSLIMS MOSTLY AND NOT OTHER "NATIVE" PEOPLE! DO YOU THINK ISLAM PROMOTE SUCH INJUSTICE??!! PLUS IT WAS A PSYCHOLOGICAL WEAPON TO KEEP ORDINARY MALAYS LIKE ME STUPID LIKE COWS FOREVER WITH RINGS IN OUR NOSES; BEING PULLED BY THE MOST GREEDY AND MACHO BASTARDS IN UMNO LEADERSHIP!

    NOOR AZA OTHMAN

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  31. Removing-the-veil3:59 pm, April 12, 2008

    Ya! Shame on you KT or rather, Mukhriz! Shame on you too Jed Yoong aka Azalina!

    Yea, no wonder so anti AI and so verbose!

    Shame. Shame. Shame.

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  32. Yawn... PKR has 30 BN MPs in hand? PKR also had 6 kotak bukti against Dr M. Wait till tua lah...

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  33. Noor Aza Othman,

    Nama saya, Azman Abdullah, nama gelaran tu saya dapat masa skola kat muar, sekarang menetap di pandan indah, belajar di universiti islam antarabangsa 15tahun sudah, masa tu anwar presiden uia.(masa tu ramai pelajar dari bosnia dtg belajar kat situ,ada yg sampai 10 tahun x abis2 lagi belajar, pasal diaorang tak nak balik ke Bosnia, ko kan pandai, ko mesti tahu pasal bosnia kan, belajarla..), biasiswa dari kerajaan, semua adik beradik aku dapat, o lupa, aku ada adik2 kat singapura.. diaorang x dapat biasiswa. kalau u kena brainwashed, maknenya u tak pandai pakai brain u la... nama mlaysia kan tanah melayu, melayu kan islam, better dari negara islam ynag lain diatas muka bumi ini, bole belajar apa sahaja yang kita mahu di malaysia...kenapa tak percaya...wahabi, tarikat , sufism syariat, semua ada di malaysia..DEB, memang untuk melayu, satu dunia dah tahu, memang nak tolong melayu, tak payah nak dipertikaikan lagi, x payah nak brainwash2 dah terbukti kita aman.u nak tahu kenapa aku tulis melayu..pasal aku x yakin yang kau tu melayu...banyak sangat kebencian dalam diri kau tu. Kau masih x jawab kenapa kau kata pemimpin hindraf tu hero...sama mcm bapak kau ke..bapak aku pun askar melayu diraja, masuk hutan menentang komunis, tapi dia x sama mcm hindraf.
    melayu-totok.blogspot.com
    mankapak@yahoo.com

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