Why the froggie volte-face on reformasi

Azmin: BN MPs ready to cross!

So says Anwar Ibrahim’s right hand man today to Malaysiakini today at the party headquarters in Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur. This is the 2nd time he has informed reporters of blue coloured froggies.

However, this time he shares with us staggering news. He proclaimed: “It was out of our expectation. We only need 30 more seats, but the response is so overwhelming now, 30 seats are the minimum (we can get).”

Holy Gurun – kurang kurang tiga puluh katak!

However, when pressed for details, he was coy about which party those katak-puru are from. Instead he said that PKR will make further announcement at a right time.

According to him, the table has changed. He stated: “It is Abdullah who is running out of time, we are not, we will announce the details at a right time.”

Malaysiakini reported he brushed aside suggestions that such defections would be against the voters’ interest as the MPs were elected under the BN banner.

He claimed: “We did not offer any money to them (to crossover), what we offered is that their voters will be defended with fairness and justice.”

Well, you decide whether kataks jump around for no reason other than to cross the road.

Everyone (including Anwar Ibrahim) knows that Anwar Ibrahim wants to be PM.

But I have always said Anwar Ibrahim wants to go back to UMNO to be PM. I haven’t changed my belief. I won’t go again into what I have blogged on numerous occasions why he has been ‘soft’ on AAB, and why he has never reported any case of UMNO money corruption.

Never burn the bridge back to UMNO!

I won’t go over again on my speculation on how Anwar had hoped for an UMNO-BN without a 2/3 majority while his core members in PKR win enough seats in the GE to hold the balance of power that would enable UMNO-BN to regain the 2/3 majority ….. provided he and core members are invited back into UMNO.

But then what about 08 March 2008?

What about Anwar Ibrahim becoming PM as de facto leader of the so-called Barisan Rakyat if he indeed gets his froggies?

Well, certainly I would say he has achieved his pre election hopes, and more!

UMNO-BN has lost its 2/3 by 8 MPs, and mow marn t’ai (no worries), PKR core members should number at least 8.

A simple majority in Parliament is a party (or coalition) commanding the confidence of 112 MPs. The so-called BR has 82. Add 30 froggies and Bob’s your uncle. Thus Anwar Ibrahim can be PM after winning the due by-election blah blah blah.

So, what’s kaytee talking about Anwar Ibrahim still wanting to go back to UMNO?

Well, unfortunately in that 112 (maybe more, according to Azmin Ali), it’s made up of:

28 DAP
23 PAS
30 froggies
31 PKR, some of whom aren’t ‘core’ anwaristas – I can easily identify Dr Jeya as one. Would Wee be another? There’s more.

PM Anwar of the BR won’t be the same as a PM Anwar of UMNO-BN, because in the former, the power has to be split 4 ways.

Even if the froggies are all UMNO-istas there’s still 51 DAPs and PAS MPs to worry about. Even if he manages to win over PAS with agama, bangsa dan negara, there’ the inconvenient 28 DAPs, Dr Jeya and a number of PKR non-core members, who won’t lie down and roll on their back like the MCA, Gerakan and MIC did for UMNO.

He cannot trust DAP to back him on all things, which could be a possible explanation for some observers why, pre and post election, some significant pro PKR people had been demon-ising DAP, as if they wanted to destroy their 'ally' as a party (they do!), where subsequently (and hopefully) all DAP members would then leave and join PKR.

… which is why he will go back to UMNO ….. after key members in UMNO have been shaken enough by a froggie scare campaign to insist on recalling him.

… unless of course a tidal wave of UMNO-istas come over to join him, to give him a solid 112 without counting the 28 DAP MPs, Dr Jeya and the PKR non-core members. This is less likely as it would require something in the order of almost 90 UMNO MPs inclusive of Sabahan MPs.

Which will it be? Anwar being recalled or less likely, UMNO-istas swarming across?

There’s a third possibility – UMNO feels confident enough to buy off any frogs. UMNO knows if it can just hold the fort for 4 more years, or even less, it will continue in power.

I had read Ong Kian Ming’s earlier post-election analysis where I believe he mentioned the swing that led to the Opposition winning 5 States and denying the BN of 2/3 majority, was a humongous 35% by the Chinese, 30% Indians and only 5% Malays. I believe some of those 5% Malay swing could have been due to Dr M's personal campaign against AAB.

I recall also (from Ong Kian Ming's article) the belief among many Chinese that they might have overdone the swing.

Given all these, it may well be that this tsunamic election was only a once-in-40-years wonder, like 1969, and won't be repeated in 2012. Whatever the debate on this (maybe I’ll do a post on this tomorrow) Azmin Ali has been wrong - he didn't dare say: "It is not Abdullah who is running out of time, we are .....”

Anwar Ibrahim knows it’s now or never for him, to get back into UMNO, and f* the volte-face on his reformasi.