Continuing from Government via backdoor breeds cronyism & corruption:
Yesterday PBS deputy president Dr Maximus Ongkili accused Anwar of wanting to destabilise the Government by the latter’s repetitive claims of having the numbers to form a majority government.
As the Pakatan Rakyat has only 82 MPs in Parliament, Anwar's claim has certainly supported his earlier assertion of BN MPs wanting to switch allegiance to his side.
Then Azmin Ali, Anwar’s right hand man, came out with the illuminating news, though frightening to UMNO, that the Pakatan now has received a staggering number of frogs that's far more than the 30 it requires – in fact, he averred that 30 would be the minimum the Pakatan may expect – a kind of froggie ‘landslide’ or ‘tsunami’.
But two days ago in a Malaysiakini news article titled Anwar: We have numbers to topple gov't, Anwar seemed to have a far more modest claim than Azmin Ali. He said while he has the support of enough defectors from the ruling coalition to seize power, he would prefer to take over the government when he has a bigger and more comfortable majority.
He cautioned: "When we take over we want to initiate the move. Do we want to be a government with a two- or five-seat majority?"
Given the conflicting claims between Azmin Ali and Anwar Ibrahim, I am inclined to believe Ongkili’s accusation of Anwar's actions as meant to destabilize the government or rather UMNO.
But I think it’s more than that. I believe Anwar is beating the BN bush to startle the partridges so that they may panic and fly out, metamorphosing into frogs, hopefully with a snowballing effect.
There is of course the anti-hopping legislation that will be tabled when Parliament convenes for the new term, with the DAP (or least in the person of Karpal Singh) promising to support it. Perhaps even Pak Haji Nik Aziz will too, though his Terengganu colleague likes frogs. The BN only requires 8 MPs from DAP and/or PAS to pass that new legislation. I wonder how will Dr Jeya and Wee treat the anti-hopping legislation?
Given this, it seems strange Anwar Ibrahim could claim he would exercise his 'new majority' right to rule only when he has a bigger majority – when it may well be too late.
In fact if he wants a snowball effect of frogs, an avalanche so to speak, he should exert that majority now. Everyone loves a winner, and until he or his wife rules as PM, he isn't yet a winner. Currently AAB is. Perhaps Najib may be next.
Therefore his strategy doesn’t seem logical or plausible. Besides, everyone knows Anwar Ibrahim wants to be PM, preferably by yesterday!
I have to conclude he doesn’t really have the numbers, which has been why he and Azmin Ali have been beating the bush, hopefully.
Let's look at a few pros and cons for Anwar’s aspiration to catch frogs:
(1) The BN is currently in disarray, where his beating of the BN bush may produce some results.
(2) Worse, AAB seems to be passive, lethargic and pathetic, giving the impression he is unable to withstand an Anwar PR and psychological onslaught.
(3) AAB is being subverted by his own UMNO members.
(4) The Pakatan is currently fairly stable, despite some teething problems.
(5) The 40 BN MPs from Sabah and Sarawak have not been accorded appropriate representation in the cabinet, and could well be unhappy with AAB.
(6) The bigger component parties in BN, like the MCA and MIC are in turmoil, while Gerakan and PPP are virtually walking zombies, all virtually no match for the psy-war of Anwar and his PKR.
(7) Anwar has the gift of the gab, and can talk the hind quarters off an ass.
(8) He is a master of grandstanding, which helps him win the publicity war.
(9) He has very strong overseas support.
(10) I presume he has some sort of funds ... contributions from millionaire well wishers (?) who may be each standing with one foot on the BN sampan and the other on the Pakatan boat.
(11) Anwar also has kittykat 46 on his side ;-)
(1) The UMNO-BN is the government and holds the POWER of a ruling party, so why would those Sabah and Sarawak MPs jump across when they ARE in government? They will be or in fact are enjoying the perks of being in government now!
(2) The UMNO-BN has a not insignificant party stash fund, which would prevent partridges from changing into frogs.
(3) The Pakatan is not ideologically homogenous, where it has secular DAP at one end and Islamic PAS at the other, offering potentials for the BN to subvert. Hence there could be dangerous opportunities to drive a wedge between the parties in the Pakatan.
(4) Anwar’s bush beating may have a backlash effect, uniting UMNO instead of dividing it.
(5) Many in UMNO and the other BN component parties still remember Anwar and his faction when he was DPM ;-)
In the end, Anwar must get those frogs before parliament convenes, because by the next election, the once-in-40-years tsunami may no longer re-appear.