Thursday, April 17, 2008

What are the odds for PM-wannabe Anwar Ibrahim?

Continuing from Government via backdoor breeds cronyism & corruption:

Yesterday PBS deputy president Dr Maximus Ongkili accused
Anwar of wanting to destabilise the Government by the latter’s repetitive claims of having the numbers to form a majority government.

As the Pakatan Rakyat has only 82 MPs in Parliament, Anwar's claim has certainly supported his earlier assertion of BN MPs wanting to switch allegiance to his side.

Then Azmin Ali, Anwar’s right hand man, came out with the illuminating news, though frightening to UMNO, that the Pakatan now has received a staggering number of frogs that's far more than the 30 it requires – in fact, he averred that 30 would be the minimum the Pakatan may expect – a kind of froggie ‘landslide’ or ‘tsunami’.

But two days ago in a Malaysiakini news article titled
Anwar: We have numbers to topple gov't, Anwar seemed to have a far more modest claim than Azmin Ali. He said while he has the support of enough defectors from the ruling coalition to seize power, he would prefer to take over the government when he has a bigger and more comfortable majority.

He cautioned:
"When we take over we want to initiate the move. Do we want to be a government with a two- or five-seat majority?"

Given the conflicting claims between Azmin Ali and Anwar Ibrahim, I am inclined to believe Ongkili’s accusation of Anwar's actions as meant to destabilize the government or rather UMNO.

But I think it’s more than that. I believe Anwar is beating the BN bush to startle the partridges so that they may panic and fly out, metamorphosing into frogs, hopefully with a snowballing effect.

There is of course the anti-hopping legislation that will be tabled when Parliament convenes for the new term, with the DAP (or least in the person of Karpal Singh) promising to support it. Perhaps even Pak Haji Nik Aziz will too, though his Terengganu colleague likes frogs. The BN only requires 8 MPs from DAP and/or PAS to pass that new legislation. I wonder how will Dr Jeya and Wee treat the anti-hopping legislation?

Given this, it seems strange Anwar Ibrahim could claim he would exercise his 'new majority' right to rule only when he has a bigger majority – when it may well be too late.

In fact if he wants a snowball effect of frogs, an avalanche so to speak, he should exert that majority now. Everyone loves a winner, and until he or his wife rules as PM, he isn't yet a winner. Currently AAB is. Perhaps Najib may be next.

Therefore his strategy doesn’t seem logical or plausible. Besides, everyone knows Anwar Ibrahim wants to be PM, preferably by yesterday!

I have to conclude he doesn’t really have the numbers, which has been why he and Azmin Ali have been beating the bush, hopefully.

Let's look at a few pros and cons for Anwar’s aspiration to catch frogs:

(1) The BN is currently in disarray, where his beating of the BN bush may produce some results.

(2) Worse, AAB seems to be passive, lethargic and pathetic, giving the impression he is unable to withstand an Anwar PR and psychological onslaught.

(3) AAB is being subverted by his own UMNO members.

(4) The Pakatan is currently fairly stable, despite some teething problems.

(5) The 40 BN MPs from Sabah and Sarawak have not been accorded appropriate representation in the cabinet, and could well be unhappy with AAB.

(6) The bigger component parties in BN, like the MCA and MIC are in turmoil, while Gerakan and PPP are virtually walking zombies, all virtually no match for the psy-war of Anwar and his PKR.

(7) Anwar has the gift of the gab, and can talk the hind quarters off an ass.

(8) He is a master of grandstanding, which helps him win the publicity war.

(9) He has very strong overseas support.

(10) I presume he has some sort of funds ... contributions from millionaire well wishers (?) who may be each standing with one foot on the BN sampan and the other on the Pakatan boat.

(11) Anwar also has kittykat 46 on his side ;-)

(1) The UMNO-BN is the government and holds the POWER of a ruling party, so why would those Sabah and Sarawak MPs jump across when they ARE in government? They will be or in fact are enjoying the perks of being in government now!

(2) The UMNO-BN has a not insignificant party stash fund, which would prevent partridges from changing into frogs.

(3) The Pakatan is not ideologically homogenous, where it has secular DAP at one end and Islamic PAS at the other, offering potentials for the BN to subvert. Hence there could be dangerous opportunities to drive a wedge between the parties in the Pakatan.

(4) Anwar’s bush beating may have a backlash effect, uniting UMNO instead of dividing it.

(5) Many in UMNO and the other BN component parties still remember Anwar and his faction when he was DPM ;-)

In the end, Anwar must get those frogs before parliament convenes, because by the next election, the once-in-40-years tsunami may no longer re-appear.


  1. Wrong. He does not have to get the frogs before parliament convenes. Even after parliament convenes, the 30, 40, 50 whatever can leave BN and sit as independants. It is not a law that they MUST join a party.

    They do not have to join another party. They can however, agree in the event of a successful no-confidence against Badawi, form a separate group that will be affiliated to Barisan Pakatan and so enable the formation of a new Govt.

  2. "by the next election, the once-in-40-years tsunami may no longer re-appear"

    Definitely a most satisfactory result as far as Ktemoc is concerned.

  3. your deep highly logical and intelligent analysis is flawed yet again after tonight , that is the true meaning of politics where nothing is what is seems.

    you cannot predict the unpredictable as you cant predict Jesus 2nd coming. something like that . use your heart not your head

    in touch with reality not theory

  4. What about the rakyat who voted BN at the elections. Should they be forgotten just to satisfy one person's lust for power.

  5. hamdan,

    What about the Rakyat that didn't vote for BN but their votes were counted as BN votes? What about the Rakyat that didn't vote for BN but were cheated out through outrihht manipulation and massive half million postal votes? 7 BN MPs have a total of 60,000, yet Pakatan only needed 56,000 to win extra 30 seats. Who is more immoral? Greedy? You are stupid.

  6. It is fantastic that someone can be loved and given much space. I wish I was.

  7. What I see here are innuendos and figments of imaginations from a feeble mind that grasps that every straw or imagines that a log can become a crocodile if it stays in the water for long.

  8. Correction:

    I wrote earlier:

    "7 BN MPs have a total of 60,000, yet Pakatan only needed 56,000 to win extra 30 seats. Who is more immoral? Greedy?"
    I mean by postal votes. A cash caw of BN. Morality too is about media and equal share in space. Equal say in the Election Commission. When you deny people space and take their rights and talk about morality, then you can discuss that with your grandmother. May be she shares the Stone Age mentality like the ones you possess.

  9. Kaytee,
    Out of Topic, but I hope you bear with me on this....

    Something very interesting happened tonight, something pretty dramatic.
    My whole family sat around the TV watching the life telecast on Astro Bernama of the Bar Council dinner, including my small children - I wanted to teach them a small lesson about life.

    I never imagined I would say this, but at the end of Pak Lah's speech, I said "Bravo Pak Lah - Thank You. You did something good for the country tonight."

    Mahafiraun's firing of the Supreme Court judges (forget about the subterfuge about "The Tribunal did it") in 1988 happened when I was young, but old enough to understand something terrible had been done, something which could hurt the country for many years down the road.

    Tonight, the country took its first steps towards repairing the damage...

  10. Sure, everyone loves a winner like AAB. But what's the bloody use of becoming a winner when after just 4 years, you find yourself being unceremoniously being told to pack up and leave or else be thrown out on your ear. That's not a winner, that's a born loser. And I bet his own son in law is laughing at him

  11. Why are there always spoilers and negative types in the blogs?

    Nothing that nobody does is ny good. I think people like thesewho post such messages are sick.

    Similarly with that arse-hole who called hamdan "stupid". Why don't those f*****s reveal themselves. Then we see how great they are!

  12. Yes. Fair is fair. AAB did the right thing last night. It took courage and humility.

    Bravo! AAB. If you continue like this, you will no longer be the bane of UMNO -BN but PR!

    Looks like we might be in for a serious 2-party system ala Malaysian gentleman style!

  13. Policy-wise, I prefer PR's and hope they come to power.

    But if UMNO-BN reform the way AAB is going, heck, I am going to have difficulty deciding who to vote for come next Poling day!

  14. Looks like we are on the way to modernity - with or without that Prince and his small rabble-rousing extreme right conservative group.

  15. The odds for "PM wannabe" AI?

    More than 50 if he moves fast. He does not have much time, especially if AAB and his good group of people does the right thing and keeps on doing the right things.

    Personally, I would prefer to see a change of ruling party after 50 years of Alliance cum BN. It would be better forMalaysia in her journey towards political maturity and democracy.

    AAB and some of the people in BN are good people. t was just unfortunate there is no choice of viable alternative party. The System there just overwhelms if not corrupt honest, idealistic and good well meaning people.

    However, the saga is not over yet. My prediction is that Conservatives, Natonals, or Republicans, like MM and his cohorts, will never give in nor approve of the right things AAB & Co. are doing. Hence they may form a breakaway group or party. Their personal values are just too far removed, from that of AAB and Co.'s.

    Like you say, if AI moves quicker and PR takes the defectors to form the ruling government, there may be a snowballing effect, and PR may attain a more-than-a-marginal majority.

    This is a watershed moment, not just for PR or BN, but also for us the good citizens of Malaysia. As a historian would view it, it is better to have a change of "guard" at this point in time. A change means a realization and strengthening of a 2-party system. This is an objective opinion.

    The issue of party hopping right now is irrelevant. There are many BN coalition parties unhappy with the ideology and gangster methods of BN over the many years of Mr Mahathir's involvement in Alliance-BN.

    Their joining the coalition is not because of their love for BN but because as rational beings, they know where the power-that-be lays, and are hesitant to transgress that mafiosi Godfather. There is no question his tyranny is detested. And his goons and side-kicks in BN knows it.

    Thus if you hold on to power by tyranny and cruelty, rest assure that your hold to power at best, is tenuos and that when democracy is given a chance to be exercised, you will be "kicked out" immdiately by the people.

    Match 8 and the matured response of BN thereafter - courtesy of AAB & Co.), is the great legacy of both AAB and AI jointly. The legacy that is Democracy. Of Choice.

    Although a little earlier in the day to say this, but if PR becomes the next government shortly, I would not hesitate to nominate the "Men-of-the-Year" for modern Malaysia, as AI and AAB!

    So, if AI really have the numbers, you really have to move. For your becoming the next government of Malaysia with your non racial ideology will be a landmark milestone in Malaysia's next move to a modern country.

    You have a clean slate. That is your advantage. the people like that.

    Go! Write our next page on the realtime on-line history of modern Malaysia.

    If this eventuates, AAB & CO.'s legacy meantime, is safe and will be remembered fondly in the preceding pages.

    All are or will be winners.