Thursday, May 10, 2018

The morning after GE14


The EC has announced the following results of the 14th GE:

PKR (effectively PH) - 104 seats
DAP in Sarawak (effectively PH) - 9

Thus PH = total 113

Warisan Sabah - 8 (informally allied to PH)
Solidairi Tanah Airku - 1 (Jefferey Kitingan)
Independent - 3

BN - 79
PAS - 18


Given the above results I reckon PH with its simple majority of 113 seats will be safe for a while, maybe for at least 3 to 6 months. PH does not need to rely on the Independent to make up the numbers, nor should it ever. The Sabah MPs have been notoriously fickle-minded and thus not reliable allies, though they might be good only for short term purposes.


Jeffrey Kitingan - Solidairi Tanah Airku

But PH may possibly fractured slightly if not irreparably when the goodies are being divvied up, but that we have to see.

At this stage it's still early days to analyse what went right for PH and what went so wrong for BN, but suffice to say that a rough guess-timate points to 3 factors that were adverse to BN, namely:

(a) the implacable rising anger at Najib (personally and as the PM) and his Administration (lots to write here),


(b) the Mahathir factor - I have written a bit on this after most of the election results convinced me that PH won - see 
Supreme Sifu of Malaysian Politics, and


(c) over in the East, the sense of deprivation and 'colonisation' by the Peninsular-ians turned Najib's 'fixed deposit' into a fallacy.


I will be keeping an eye on the new Mahathir-Administration's attitude towards 3 issues now that it has won the election. They are:

(a) GST,
(b) Oil royalties to Sabah and Sarawak, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), and
(c) Review of past constitutional amendments that have not been kosher.

But there's always a honeymoon period of 100 days.


30 comments:

  1. The smelly but necessary politicsl manoeuvring which goes with power.... Old Mah is a 1st class Sifu..

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    1. Welcome back Mahathirism, we missed you. Oh and your friends too; dictatorship, oppression, corruption, cronyism, racism, bigotry. We missed you all. You all know where to make yourself at home.

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    2. He cannot misbehave anymore.

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    3. With the right "incentives" and positions for grab, he doesn't need to be. His lackeys will.
      Remember he said all those horrible, horrible things that happened during his UMNO time was NEVER from his OWN doing? Well, that's true because it wasn't his hands that got dirty.

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  2. Well if a certain individual may have something to say about all this on June 8 after his release from prison, even if he is not pardoned yet.

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  3. So LKS was right to ditch the rocket after all....

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  4. My watch - will GST be abolished; will anyone be charged and sent to jail for 1MDB; will the HSR be called off; will the TRX/Bandar Malaysia be abandoned; and will Anwar Ibrahim be the Prime Minister.

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  5. I suppose Penang will have a new Chief Minister - who should be Chow Kon Yeow.
    Lim Guan Eng is needed to serve in the Federal Cabinet in Putrajaya.

    As for Lim Guan Eng's case, I'm glad we will get a chance for it to be handled purely on its legal merits.

    What I absolutely DO NOT want to see is for the Pakatan-appointed Attorney General to just order "Tutup Kes", though he has the power to instruct that . That kind of UMNO'ish nonsense must stop and that is NOT what we voted for yesterday 0509.

    I wish Karpal Singh was alive to see what happened last night. It would have been his victory as well.
    But maybe he would not have approved of the alliance with Mahathir.

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    1. I truly think Karpal is a man of principles and that he would not tolerate current Pakatan's Win At All Cost mantra. In that case, he will probably suffer the same fate as Tan Seng Giaw, Boo Cheng Hau, Teh Yee Chieu, and half his children; Sangeet & Jagdeep, et al.

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  6. Najib must surely be wishing he had lost Pekan. Now he has to face the barrage at every Parliament sitting, with no Parliamentary immunity, Dahlan, Keruak, or Pandikar to shield him. Well, there's always Nazri but you are never quite sure which end of his gun he's going to fire from. Zahid will be looking after his own marbles. Najib can't ponteng Pariament or quit Pekan either, otherwise he will be labeled a coward and what would that do to his oft-mentioned proud heritage.

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  7. You can "I will be keeping an eye on the new Mahathir-Administration's attitude towards 3 issues now that it has won the election" all you want but pls spare us the B@s$$%$ of ur analysis. For a fcking hypocrite of ur stature better stay there in OZ lest u get bitte by a hellhound like me in MALAYSIA

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    1. one does one's best among fools

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  8. Matey,you should not have changed horses midstream.Wakakaka.

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    1. matter of principles - I haven't denied mine - only accepted that Malaysians want Mahathir (by their votes) though I personally haven't, nor those who did not vote for him or his coalition

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    2. i think is fine, bec we still dun know what is in mahathir mind.

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  9. Cleaning of the stables...Herculean tasks for the vibrant young leaders of this new government. I repeat...so mighty glad for Rafizi...he won't have to rot 4 years in jail.

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    1. setting new laws for rafizi? what a great start for PH

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    2. Yes. Make fitnah legal for him to get out of jail.

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    3. There is this Whistleblower clause la....but you sour grapes lot were so gungho a few days back thinking your King of Cash will rule forever, hehehehe...save your breath and energy to hold candle light vigil for him at Bamboo River...but even that, I doubt you guys will do that for him...now he's no longer the dedak paymaster, wakakakkaka.

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    4. I might be aligned to PAS but I will hold a candlelight for him if that comes to pass, knowing your kangaroo court already sentenced him before a guilty verdict is even passed.

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  10. GST is not such a simple issue, because after 3 years, it is deeply entrenched in all manner of business transactions and pricing (most unfortunately).
    Reversing it out will be just as tricky and need a lot of thinking through, just as the GST implementation was tricky and still faulty.

    A less painful process would be
    a) To fix the flawed and discriminatory implementation. This is doable and will reduce the pain and burden on small businesses, which are the backbone of the economy.

    b) Reduce the GST%.

    Oil Royalties realignment is absolutely necessary. Much more important is accountability of how the money is spent. We should learn from the Norway model. Oil revenues go into a fund, and every year, the Norwegian government sovereign investment fund
    publishes how much Oil Revenue less Costs was earned, and how the money was spent.
    Over 50 years, they have build up the largest oil revenue nest egg in the world.

    Wrong headed Constitutional amendments - tough one, will have to work with BN for this, which will not be in a mood. Mahathir is a 93 year old man who will not publically admit his mistakes, even when he privately admits he is wrong.

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  11. Aw come on, now we are hearing no swearing-in today. Money changing hands? tadpoles getting offers? What the heck, May 13 is just 3 days away. Listen to the people Najib. Listen to the people UMNO. The popular votes is not clear enough? Be gentlemen and step aside.

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    1. The Evil Najib has likely gone frog hunting.

      The transition of power in a true democracy should be simple.
      Once a party gains a majority in Parliament, the losing side concedes defeat. The Head of State invites the leader of the largest party to form the next government and is sworn in.

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  12. There is always a need to keep the politicians in power accountable.
    MCA and MIC are still needed to keep Pakatan on their toes.
    I will support their questioning as long as they don't resort to dumb stuns like Eric See-To's hysterics.

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  13. Hohohoho! So who said PAS will lose big time? They're untouchable in their fortress which now extends to Terengganu and some say Kedah (with some persuasion). PAN all lost their panties trying to compete, even Nik Omar as well.

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  15. So many PPBM & Warisan voted in. I'm expecting if Mukriz doesn't get deputy PMship & Shafie something important, Mahathir will katak'ed his parties over to UMNO/BN and thus restore UMNO/BN rule albeit under Mahathir dynasty iron-grip. Long live Emperor Sifu!

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  16. Kaytee, do you have the breakdown of the seats won by the individual party within the PH? Especially PKR, DAP and Pribumi? Thanks

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    1. not yet mate - will get it eventually

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    2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2018#Results

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