Will Permatang Pauh be a Waterloo for Nurul Izzah?

Wan Azizah has been the family torchbearer in Permatang Pauh since poor Anwar first went to prison in 1999. She held that federal constituency:

in 1999 with a 9,077 majority against BN

in 2004 with a 590 majority also against BN

in 2008 with a 13,398 majority again against BN

and

in 2013 by-election (after Anwar was jailed for 2nd time) with a 8,841 majority against BN

2004 seems to be an aberrant year when the UMNO Bao Gong onto the scene and veni, vidi, vici the political landscape, before he was bizarrely and severely “Et tu, Brute?” by his jealous predecessor.

But before Anwar was jailed for a second time, he did win PP with a 11,721 majority.

So it would seem on average, the Anwar family had enjoyed election wins in Permatang Pauh with an approximate 10K majority in every election (except for the aberrant 2004).

This time Nurul Izzah will contest in the seat, deemed as a family heirloom, BUT without PAS support au contraire with PAS as another competitor in addition to BN.

I doubt she will secure the average 10K majority under such circumstances.

In MM Online's Analyst: Sans PAS, Opposition at disadvantage in Penang the pundits expressed such concerns. Extracts of article follows:

The scenario however has changed for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, a PKR stronghold which saw PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail handing the seat over to her daughter and PKR vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar.

Nurul Izzah who is expected to receive serious challenge from PAS candidate Afnan Hamimi Taib Azamudden and Permatang Pauh Umno division head Datuk Mohd Zaidi Mohd Said, also suffers the setback of not getting votes from PAS supporters in the area this time.

If PKR’s previous victory in Permatang Pauh was assisted by PAS votes especially in Permatang Pasir state seat which was represented PAS, now the PKR candidate has to contend with a split in the Malay majority constituency while BN supporters are firmly behind their party.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the contribution of PAS in the Opposition coalition before this could not be trivialised especially its grassroots machinery.

“With PAS outside of the opposition coalition, the majority for PKR will definitely be reduced...and with a new face in BN, an upset could not be ruled out,” he said.

He said contest in multiple corners as seen on nomination day in the state would work to BN’s advantage in GE14.

Will Nurul's scaredy-cat flight to Permatang Pauh prove eventually to be jumping from the Lembah-Pantai pan into the Permatang-Pauh fire?

Pandan would have been a better bet for her, but alas, her mum has taken that place safe even for PKR cats.

The family seems reluctant to relinquish Permatang Pauh, a constituency what they see as a family heirloom and Wan Azizah can't resign-retire because of the threat of dwarves to the Princess.

But Bagan could have been another better bet though that would be encroaching into Tokong's territory, wakakaka.

a cat must stay clear of a very territorial dog