Russia Begins Serial Production of Oreshinik Long Range Ballistic Missiles: What Makes it a Game Changer?
Eastern Europe and Central Asia , Missile and Space
Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23 confirmed that serial production of the Oreshinik intermediate range ballistic missile is beginning, and that the missile has been assessed to have performed well when combat tested. “Volume production of the newest intermediate-range missile system Oreshnik, which has proved itself very well in combat conditions, is being started,” he stated, providing an update on the highly secretive weapons program. The missile’s service entry marks a turning point for the capabilities of Russia’s ballistic missile forces, which were previously comprised solely of short ranged Iskander-M systems, and intercontinental range systems such as the Sarmat. This left little capability for launching tactical conventional or nuclear strikes on closer targets, such as American military facilities on Guam or in the United Kingdom, or personnel concentrations across the European continent. The Oreshinik is estimated to have a 4000km range, and carries multiple independently re-targetable warheads with hypersonic reentry vehicles. These vehicles can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads.
Russia first fired the Oreshnik in combat on November 21 against Ukrainian targets, with the missile class having previously been unknown to the world. While preparing to operationalise the missile class at scale, the country has also procured North Korean KN-23B and Pukkuksong-2 ballistic missiles, which provide engagement ranges of 800km and 2500km respectively, bridging the gap between the 500km Iskander-M system and the new indigenous intermediate range missile class. The Oreshnik’s combination of range, precision, and advanced penetrative capabilities have raised significant concerns across much of the Western world. Shortly after its unveiling and first use in combat, Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrey Kelin claimed it had had a significant impact on British policy toward Moscow, forcing London to take a more cautious approach towards supporting Ukrainian deep strikes against Russian targets. Alongside the Russian Armed Forces, it has been confirmed that the missile systems will also be supplied to the Belarusian Armed Forces. Missiles with conventional warheads are expected to be placed fully under Belarusian control, while those with nuclear warheads will likley require the transfer of their final stage vehicles from Russian control under the terms of the two countries’ nuclear sharing agreement.
On November 21, 2024, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry publicised an intelligence assessment on Russian industry’s production capacity estimating that the country would to be able to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, which equates to production of 300 missiles per year. On May 29 confirmed Secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexander Volfovich confirmed that Oreshnik missiles would be deployed in Belarus before the end of 2025, indicating that the missiles are expected to be more available for frontline deployments in the next six months. It remains uncertain, however, whether moving the missile class into production quickly may have hindered Russian industry’s ability to continue to produce new intercontinental range ballistic missiles, with which the Oreshnik shares many of the same industrial inputs. It also remains uncertain whether all of the mobile launch vehicles for the Oreshnik will be produced in Belarus, or whether only those vehicles being procured by the Belarusian Armed Forces will use locally built vehicles.
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