Is a wider Middle East war now inevitable?
Frank Gardner
Security correspondentNo, but the chances have just increased dramatically in the last 24 hours.
The very reason why a consortium of 12 countries, including allies and partners of Israel, were pushing for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon was to lower the temperature and reduce the risk of this conflict spreading further across the Middle East.
But Israel has clearly decided it has now got Hezbollah on the ropes and wants to press home its advantage, whatever the cost.
So now the key question is what will Iran do.
It is in danger of watching the destruction of its key ally in the region, Hezbollah, but also the deterrent which Hezbollah's missiles offer.
Various missiles, their launches and the people who operate them have certainly been depleted in the last week but many of them remain intact, including long-range precision-guided missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv and other cities.
Both Hezbollah and Iran know that if they do unleash those missiles on Israeli cities, that will almost certainly incur two things: a severe retaliation by Israel against Iran itself, and it could well bring in the US - which has warships stationed offshore equipped with batteries of cruise missiles.
It is also likely that we could now see a greater involvement by Iranian- backed militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Diplomats will be doing their best to try and calm the situation but right now Israel appears to be determined to finish off Hezbollah as a threat to its people.
Khamenei: Forces in the region support and stand alongside Hezbollah
Ghoncheh Habibiazad
BBC MonitoringReutersAyatollah Khamenei, pictured in August
We've just had the first remarks from Iran's Supreme Leader since Israel said it had killed Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
As a reminder, the Lebanon-based group has received strong backing from Iran, both financially and militarily, for many years.
Published on the official website, Ayatollah Khamenei did not mention Nasrallah at all in his statement.
He began by first condemning the killing of "the defenceless people of Lebanon", saying that "it proved the short-sightedness and foolish policies of the leaders" of Israel.
Israeli “criminals must know that they are far too small to cause any significant damage on the strongholds of Hezbollah in Lebanon," Khamenei said adding: "All the Resistance forces in the region support and stand alongside Hezbollah."
He also urged all Muslims to stand alongside the people of Lebanon and Hezbollah and support them in "confronting the usurping and oppressive regime".
Where does Israel say Nasrallah was killed?
As we've been reporting throughout the morning, the Israeli military said it has killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
In a statement, it said he was killed in a "targeted strike" alongside other senior members of the Lebanon-based group - including Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah's southern front.
The IDF says the strike was carried out on the militant group's central headquarters in Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut.
We've mapped that out below:
A dangerous moment in the Middle East
Hugo Bachega
Middle East correspondent, in BeirutThe news from the Israeli military, that the powerful and long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an air strike in Beirut, is still being digested by this country - and we still haven’t had any official statement from Hezbollah.
This is obviously significant.
Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist organisation by the UK, the US and others, is more than a militia. It is also a political party, with representation in Lebanon's parliament, and part of the government. It has a significant support base and it is part of the Lebanese society.
We don’t know how Hezbollah is going to respond. We’ve seen that Hezbollah hasn’t yet deployed its more sophisticated missiles, including precision guided missiles that can strike deep inside Israel.
The indications have been that the group wasn’t interested in a major confrontation with Israel that could lead to the destruction of its infrastructure and the assassination of its key leaders. This is exactly what has happened, so I think there is a big unanswered question.
There has also been the concern that any kind of wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could force other Iranian-backed groups across the region to join Hezbollah in this fight.
It is a very dangerous moment in the Middle East with unpredictable consequences.
Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles , 8,500 of which had already been launched against Israel since October 7, 2023.
ReplyDeleteThe number of missiles that Israel has been able to neutralise in the last week of intense air strikes is unknown, but it is certain Hezbollah still has massive numbers of missiles able to hit Israel, overwhelm defensive measures and destroy large portions of Israel.
Hezbollah and Lebanon ain't no peaceful innocent victim.