FMT:
Get smart – elections maths shows way forward for BN, PH
Malaysians must confront hard political truths and abandon fantasies of overnight change, or risk empowering forces that could shape the nation’s future for the worse
Malaysians, and especially non-Malays, need a reality check. What many currently enjoy is a fantasy of privilege — they view Pakatan Harapan as a flop because their hope for change has not materialised.
Yet, consider this: it takes years to raise and shape our children, years to understand our spouses, and years to settle into our careers — so why do Malaysians seem to think that changing a nation is as simple as flipping a switch?
To some simple-minded Malaysians, being the boss, or the prime minister, means you can “buat apa saja” (do whatever you like). But nothing could be further from the truth, especially in a real democracy formed by coalition parties.
Only under a dictatorial regime led by a single, obedient party can a leader steer the ship entirely at their will. Even then, with the rise of social media, such control is increasingly a daunting task.
Now, the question I ask Malaysians is this: Will you accept Barisan Nasional and Umno? For most, the answer is a resounding “no”. The scars left by former leaders like Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Najib Razak are still fresh. These are not easy wounds to live with.
But in life, we live with what we have, or what God has given us. We do not spend our days grumbling to God about the hand we’ve been dealt. That, in essence, is the definition of life.
BN’s options
Now, let us take a reality check for GE16. Many are saying they will stay away from voting — and that would truly be the end of Malaysia.
First question: Can BN go solo in GE16?
What is Umno’s vote bank? Obviously, the Malays. But does Umno still have Malays in the palm of its hand? I don’t think so, judging by the votes Perikatan Nasional received in several recent by-elections. Worse, if BN goes it alone and ends up in a three-cornered fight with PH and PN, the Malay vote will split — and PH will win.
Some may ask: What if BN and Umno reinvent themselves as a “Malaysian-centric” party?
Well, then they’d risk losing whatever Malay support they still have. MIC and MCA, meanwhile, have not shown the creativity or momentum to become real reformist voices. So BN needs a partner to survive.
The only question is: PH or PN?
Let’s say BN partners with PN. All Malay-majority seats would likely fall to this alliance. Why? Because a PN-BN partnership would be seen as a united Malay front.
Sounds good for Umno and BN? Not necessarily. It depends on how the seats are distributed.
Will Umno get a lion’s share — say, 50% — leaving PAS and Bersatu with 20% each and the remaining scraps to other component parties? Would PAS accept this, now that it’s the largest bloc in Parliament? Even DAP come second to them. Would PAS now defer to Umno, when PAS seems to think it has divine favour and can do no wrong?
At best, Umno might get a third or even a quarter of the seats. With that, it would have to settle for the role of deputy prime minister No 3 and not the prime minister’s post.
For Malaysians, this would mean the return of a conservative Malay government.
The unity way
On the other hand, let’s say BN and Umno choose to stick with PH. The accidental coalition of PH, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah currently holds two-thirds of parliamentary seats and can easily defend them.
Seats in PAS-held Kedah, Terengganu, and Kelantan can be shared among PKR, Amanah, and Umno. Will Umno accept this “token” of kindness and pragmatism?
With strategic vote transfers, this coalition could defeat the smirks of Sanusi Nor and the arrogance of Abdul Hadi Awang — and wipe them off the political map once and for all.
Still, some Malaysians reject this kind of political mathematics. They want a third force. But who exactly is this third force? Will Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Muda team up with the Malaysian Advancement Party and Urimai? Who will be their Malay anchor? Pejuang? Seriously? Are we working with the “102-year-old future Mahathir”? Or will this “third force” end up as a minor bloc within PN, a mere footnote?
Can this third force, without PN’s machinery, realistically win a single seat? Please, lah.
Facing reality
So, that’s the political math as I see it for GE16. Malaysians need to smarten up and grow out of this fantasy of “spoilt privilege”.
If PN is wiped out, then perhaps BN can make a comeback in the 17th general election against PH. But if BN falters because non-Malays stay home sulking, then PN will come back stronger — and our children may have to live under Sanusi as head honcho.
These are the numbers. These are the realities. Malaysians must reflect deeply and support whichever coalition most closely aligns with their ideals. It’s time to wake up from the daydream of a fast-track Malaysia, a Malaysia that never existed in the first place.
Let’s say BN partners with PN. All Malay-majority seats would likely fall to this alliance. Why? Because a PN-BN partnership would be seen as a united Malay front.
Sounds good for Umno and BN? Not necessarily. It depends on how the seats are distributed.
Will Umno get a lion’s share — say, 50% — leaving PAS and Bersatu with 20% each and the remaining scraps to other component parties? Would PAS accept this, now that it’s the largest bloc in Parliament? Even DAP come second to them. Would PAS now defer to Umno, when PAS seems to think it has divine favour and can do no wrong?
At best, Umno might get a third or even a quarter of the seats. With that, it would have to settle for the role of deputy prime minister No 3 and not the prime minister’s post.
For Malaysians, this would mean the return of a conservative Malay government.
The unity way
On the other hand, let’s say BN and Umno choose to stick with PH. The accidental coalition of PH, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah currently holds two-thirds of parliamentary seats and can easily defend them.
Seats in PAS-held Kedah, Terengganu, and Kelantan can be shared among PKR, Amanah, and Umno. Will Umno accept this “token” of kindness and pragmatism?
With strategic vote transfers, this coalition could defeat the smirks of Sanusi Nor and the arrogance of Abdul Hadi Awang — and wipe them off the political map once and for all.
Still, some Malaysians reject this kind of political mathematics. They want a third force. But who exactly is this third force? Will Parti Sosialis Malaysia and Muda team up with the Malaysian Advancement Party and Urimai? Who will be their Malay anchor? Pejuang? Seriously? Are we working with the “102-year-old future Mahathir”? Or will this “third force” end up as a minor bloc within PN, a mere footnote?
Can this third force, without PN’s machinery, realistically win a single seat? Please, lah.
Facing reality
So, that’s the political math as I see it for GE16. Malaysians need to smarten up and grow out of this fantasy of “spoilt privilege”.
If PN is wiped out, then perhaps BN can make a comeback in the 17th general election against PH. But if BN falters because non-Malays stay home sulking, then PN will come back stronger — and our children may have to live under Sanusi as head honcho.
These are the numbers. These are the realities. Malaysians must reflect deeply and support whichever coalition most closely aligns with their ideals. It’s time to wake up from the daydream of a fast-track Malaysia, a Malaysia that never existed in the first place.
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