What’s Behind the Cancellation of Singapore’s Fighter Jet Basing in Guam?

Both nations arguably had sound reasons to shelve the agreement, which would have established a permanent base for the RSAF’s F-15s.

By Ian Seow Cheng Wei

August 27, 2025

A B-52 Stratofortress from the U.S. Air Force’s 23rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron leads a formation of Japanese Air Self Defense Force F-2s over Guam, Feb. 10, 2009.

Credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Kevin J. Gruenwald

Despite its small size and non-allied status, Singapore is one of the few countries in the world with a long-term military presence on U.S. soil. Since the 1990s, Singapore has deployed fighter jets and helicopters to the United States for training due to its vast airspace and opportunities to learn best practices from the U.S. Air Force. These detachments have allowed the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) to conduct complex exercises that would not be possible in Singapore’s limited airspace, which contributes to its operational readiness. Currently, Singapore has three RSAF detachments in the U.S.: two in Arizona, and one in Idaho.

Between the 1990s and 2019, Singapore deployed a fighter jet detachment on Guam on a periodic basis for training. Following the renewal of the 1990 Singapore-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding the U.S. use of facilities in Singapore in 2019, both countries signed another MOU on establishing a permanent base for Singapore’s F-15s at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam by 2029. However, last month, the U.S. and Singapore mutually agreed to scrap the Guam basing plan, citing the environmental impacts of constructing new facilities. Given that the U.S. has embarked on a major infrastructure expansion of its facilities in Guam, it is unlikely that environmental concerns were the main driver. Thus, why did Singapore and the U.S. decide to cancel this arrangement?

For Singapore, the cancellation of the plans is largely driven by geopolitical risks, particularly the intensifying Sino-U.S. competition, and Singapore’s desire to remain non-aligned. Conversely, for the U.S., the decision may have been influenced by its redeployment of troops and equipment to Guam, which might have limited its capacity to accommodate additional aircraft.

Singapore’s Considerations: Minimizing Geopolitical Risks

In the 1990s, Singapore’s decision to deploy aircraft to Guam was influenced by operational concerns such as airspace constraints in Singapore and safeguarding its fighter aircraft from attack. Initially, Singapore’s deterrence strategy against its larger neighbors, namely Malaysia and Indonesia, hinges on achieving air superiority. However, by the late 1980s, Indonesia and Malaysia embarked on the modernization of their air forces and procured similar aircraft to Singapore, which effectively eroded Singapore’s military edge. These developments raised concerns within Singapore that its aircraft could be destroyed on the ground in a preemptive strike. Thus, to ensure the survivability of Singapore’s fighter jets, Singapore has deployed its aircraft overseas, including to Guam, to better protect its aircraft against attacks and allow for rapid recall during contingencies.

Beyond operational reasons, deploying training detachments to the U.S. is crucial in strengthening defense ties with Washington and embedding the U.S. military presence in the region amidst China’s growing assertiveness. For example, following the signing of the 2019 MOU on establishing a fighter training detachment in Guam, Singapore’s then Defense Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen stated that the agreement “reaffirms Singapore’s position that the stability of our region, the Asia-Pacific region, requires the influence and presence of the U.S.”

However, China’s rapid military modernization since 2015, and its willingness to challenge the U.S. military presence in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea, have presented operational risks to Singaporean aircraft stationed in Guam. In recent years, China’s advanced Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles have placed Guam within striking range. Given Guam’s strategic importance to the U.S. as a major logistics facility and airbase, it is likely to become a target for Chinese missiles during a military contingency in Southeast Asia. Consequently, this could inadvertently entangle Singapore in a military conflict, and the potential loss of Singapore’s aircraft could jeopardize its national defense.

Beyond operational concerns, Singapore is careful to ensure that its deployment in Guam does not signal its participation in a U.S.-led containment strategy, which could draw Chinese retaliation. For instance, in 2016, Beijing viewed Singapore’s continued military training in Taiwan, and its criticism of China’s actions in the South China Sea as evidence of Singapore’s growing alignment with the U.S. Consequently, in December 2016, Hong Kong authorities impounded nine Singapore Armed Forces armored vehicles and excluded Singapore from the 2017 Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. In light of the intensifying Sino-U.S. military competition, Singapore’s permanent deployment of fighter jets on Guam could be interpreted as Singapore’s tacit support for Washington’s containment efforts. Hence, it is in Singapore’s interests to avoid provoking tensions with China in order to maintain cordial relations with its top trading partner.

Washington’s Consideration: Limited Capacity on Guam

For the U.S., the decision to cancel plans to host Singapore’s fighter jets was likely informed by Washington’s redeployment of forces to Guam to strengthen its deterrence vis-à-vis China. Since World War II, Guam has been a key pillar of the U.S. military presence in the region due to its strategic location in the Pacific Ocean, and its large airbases capable of accommodating strategic bomber fleets. Additionally, Guam’s position as a vital logistics hub has been critical in supporting U.S. military interventions across the Indo-Pacific. For example, during the Vietnam War, Guam served as a staging ground for B-52 bombers in Operation Arc Light, an intensive bombing campaign to destroy North Vietnamese supply lines.

Today, Guam serves as a pivotal hub for the U.S. to deter China’s assertiveness and to protect its troops and assets from a potential Chinese attack. Prior to 2012, U.S. troops were deployed within the “first island-chain,” which stretched from the Philippines to Japan, to check China’s growing military power. However, following China’s modernization of its ballistic missile forces in 2015, Chinese missiles posed a significant threat to U.S. forces stationed within the “first island-chain.” To that end, the U.S. has strengthened missile defense systems in Guam to protect its forces, and gradually redeployed stealth bombers, strategic bombers, and Marines to the island, thereby forming a strategic reserve to support a potential U.S. military intervention in the Indo-Pacific.

For instance, in December 2024, the U.S. redeployed 4,000 Marines from Okinawa to Camp Blaz in Guam. Subsequently, in July 2025, it redeployed B-52 bombers from North Dakota to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam to bolster the U.S.’ capabilities to respond to military contingencies in the Indo-Pacific.

As Guam becomes increasingly crowded with newly redeployed assets and troops, the U.S. has undertaken major expansion of Guam’s military infrastructure in order to increase its capacity. Thus, given Washington’s strategic priorities of deterring China, ensuring the survivability of its forces, and redeployment of new assets, it is likely that Guam does not have sufficient space to permanently host Singapore’s fighter jets.

Future Implications

Both Singapore and the U.S.’ cancellation of plans to permanently host Singaporean fighter jets is unlikely to have a significant impact on Singapore’s existing defense relations with Washington. Singapore has announced that it will continue to conduct routine air force training in Guam to hone its combat capabilities, and that it is working with the U.S. to establish a new fighter training detachment in Alaska. At the same time, by cancelling the permanent deployment, Singapore has indirectly signaled to China that it is not participating in a U.S.-led containment strategy, which can help preserve its cordial ties with Beijing. On the other hand, for the U.S., cancelling the arrangement will potentially free up limited space to augment its growing military presence in the western Pacific. However, doing so may heighten military tensions with Beijing, thereby aggravating the region’s already tense geopolitical situation.