Israel’s Missile Defence Arsenal Depleted After Just Five Days of Iranian Strikes
Middle East , Missile and Space
The Israel Defence Forces’ arsenal of Arrow anti-ballistic missiles is running increasingly thin, with longstanding suspicions regarding the state of the broader Israeli air defence arsenal having been confirmed by a U.S. official who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. After just five days of hostilities with Iran, which Israel initiated in June 13 with the launch of major air strikes against a range of targets in the country, the seriousness of missile defence shortages threatens to allow Iranian ballistic missiles to strike Israeli targets with growing success. On June 17 a separate source briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence cited by the the Washington Post noted that“the system is already overwhelmed,” and that Israeli air defences would need to be more selective regarding prioritising interceptions in future. Analysts have widely concluded that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has the ability to significantly escalate the scale of strikes on Israeli targets, and to begin to employ more advanced missile classes with greater success rates evading interception. The Corps on June 18 launched its first ever strike using the new Fattah ballistic missile, which is expected to be effectively impossible to intercept due to its use of a hypersonic glide vehicle.
Israeli missile defence systems have proven to have struggled to intercept attacks launched using even relatively basic ballistic missile classes, such as those launched by Ansurullah Coalition forces in Yemen. This has placed their ability to intercept medium or high end Iranian missiles into serious question. Israeli shortages of anti-ballistic missiles was already a serious issue by mid-2024, with continued ballistic missile attacks from Yemen, two large scale strikes from Iran in April and September, and to a lesser extent strikes by the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, having depleted the arsenal. Successful efforts by Hezbollah to specifically target Israeli missile defence assets reportedly worsened the situation. These shortages led the United States to play a greater role in the defence of Israeli territory from missile attacks, with the U.S. Armed Forces as a result having also seen its arsenals of anti-ballistic missiles placed under growing strain due to the deployment of U.S. Army THAAD and U.S. Navy AEGIS systems to protect Israel.
Pressure on Israeli missile defences were alleviated in December 2024 by the fall of Syria to Turkish and Israeli backed insurgents, as the country’s own sizeable North Korean supplied ballistic missile arsenals were previously expected to be used to supplement Iranian strikes on Israel with attacks from a second direction should a major regional war break out. The empowerment of Turkish-backed and closely Israeli-aligned Islamists in Syria has further cut off arms supplies from Iran to Hezbollah, with these jihadists’ sustained attacks on Hezbollah’s positions since their taking power in Syria having largely taken Hezbollah out of the fight, isolating Iran. Despite its isolation, the sheer size and advanced capabilities of the Iranian missile arsenal built up over more than three decades appear set to allow the country to inflict growing pain on Israel so long as the country sustains its campaign of air attacks against Iranian targets. The limitations of Israeli missile defences are expected to lead to reevaluations by militaries across much of the world regarding the viability of ballistic missile defence in a major sustained conflict.
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