Negri Sembilan may be a bridge too far for PN; no plain sailing for PH and BN either
By Murray Hunter
NEGRI Sembilan which is located just south of Klang Valley is a very diverse state. It has industrial estates, palm oil estates, cement quarrying, tourist precincts, and a large spread of rural kampung.
The population of Negri Sembilan just reaches 1.1 million people where approximately 720,000 are eligible to vote in the coming state election due before October this year.
Negeri Sembilan is ethnically diverse with 56.6% of the population Malay, mainly Minangkabau with other Bumiputera groups making up 2.0%, Chinese (21.3%) and Indians (14%). These groups are not uniformly dispersed throughout the state, and thus the ethnic mix influences electoral outcomes.
The current state government is Pakatan Harapan (PH) with 20 seats in the state legislature and the Barisan Nasional (BN) in opposition, holding 16 seats in the state assembly. Both coalitions have combined to form a federal ‘unity government’ after the 15th General Election (GE15).
In the coming state election, both groups are set to combine and run as a ‘unity coalition’. The latest information is that both parties will run their respective candidates according to the seats they won in the 2018 state election although this is not yet conformed.
Perikatan Nasional (PN) didn’t win any federal seats in Negeri Sembilan in GE15. Both PH and BN were untouchable by the so called ‘green wave’. Nor did PN win any state seats in the last state polls.
HEAD HONCHOS OF PN’S COMPONENT PARTIES: (from left) PAS president Tan Sri Hadi Awang, Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Gerakan leader Datuk Dr Dominic Lau Hoe Chai
Although the PN leadership has pledged to capture the state in the coming state election, this might just be a ‘bridge too far.’
PH-BN stronghold
PH has the reasonably popular federal Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook who holds the state seat of Chennah and former Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Hasan (Rantau state assemblyman) who is also federal Defence Minister and UMNO deputy president to lead the PH-BN campaign.
However, bear in mind that PAS has long nurtured kampung communities all over the central, south west and south of the state. Support for PN in the seats of Sungei Lui, Seri Menanti, Senaling, Pilah, Johol, Labu, Puroi, Chembong, Gemas, and Gemencheh, can’t be under-estimated.
If PN performed above expectations, this would give them up to 11 seats. However, this would be well short of the 19 seats needed to form a state government. Nevertheless, this would embarrass the PH-BN coalition who has no PN assembly members prior to the election.
The most likely result is that PN may be able to pick up a couple of seats in Negri Sembilan and sit isolated in a PH-BN packed assembly.
Although the PN leadership has pledged to capture the state in the coming state election, this might just be a ‘bridge too far.’
PH-BN stronghold
PH has the reasonably popular federal Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook who holds the state seat of Chennah and former Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Hasan (Rantau state assemblyman) who is also federal Defence Minister and UMNO deputy president to lead the PH-BN campaign.
However, bear in mind that PAS has long nurtured kampung communities all over the central, south west and south of the state. Support for PN in the seats of Sungei Lui, Seri Menanti, Senaling, Pilah, Johol, Labu, Puroi, Chembong, Gemas, and Gemencheh, can’t be under-estimated.
If PN performed above expectations, this would give them up to 11 seats. However, this would be well short of the 19 seats needed to form a state government. Nevertheless, this would embarrass the PH-BN coalition who has no PN assembly members prior to the election.
The most likely result is that PN may be able to pick up a couple of seats in Negri Sembilan and sit isolated in a PH-BN packed assembly.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (left) who is both Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman and PKR president with DAP’s secretary-general and Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook
It would be very difficult for PN to pick up non-Malay votes with the history of racial ranting by PAS that has gone on of late. This could possibly scare the non-Malay vote. PN could run some Gerakan candidates in Chinese majority seats. However, Gerakan isn’t strong in Negri Sembilan.
PH-BN weaknesses are in the cost of living and welfare areas where there are still large pockets of relative poverty in some areas, particularly within Indian communities in the estates. This could provide some backlash in the Indian vote which may be important in some seats.
The crucial issue is how BN will look to its traditional Malay base, working alongside the DAP. This could setback UMNO against Bersatu and PAS in canvassing for the Malay votes. This is particularly important as UMNO as seen from GE15 is currently in the electoral doldrums.
The seat allocation between PH and BN will be very important towards maximising the alliance’s aggregate vote. This will have a major bearing over the election result.
We will also observe whether the charging of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin creates any ‘Abah factor’ – that of a leader who has been politically persecuted. This will be the first time to see if his pending prosecution plays any role in the result.
Finally, if there is any movement on the ‘Najib royal pardon’ issue, there could be massive repercussions. Expect this issue to go quiet for the next couple of months.
Although we can expect a swing against PH-BN from the 2018 result, this will not be enough for PN to take a couple of seats away from the ‘unity coalition’. – April 25, 2023
Australia-born Murray Hunter has been involved in Asia-Pacific business for the last 40 years as an entrepreneur, consultant, academic and researcher. He was previously an associate professor at the Universiti Malaya Perlis. This view which was published with the author’s consent first appeared on Free Malaysia Today under the heading “Negeri Sembilan may be a bridge too far for PN”.
It would be very difficult for PN to pick up non-Malay votes with the history of racial ranting by PAS that has gone on of late. This could possibly scare the non-Malay vote. PN could run some Gerakan candidates in Chinese majority seats. However, Gerakan isn’t strong in Negri Sembilan.
PH-BN weaknesses are in the cost of living and welfare areas where there are still large pockets of relative poverty in some areas, particularly within Indian communities in the estates. This could provide some backlash in the Indian vote which may be important in some seats.
The crucial issue is how BN will look to its traditional Malay base, working alongside the DAP. This could setback UMNO against Bersatu and PAS in canvassing for the Malay votes. This is particularly important as UMNO as seen from GE15 is currently in the electoral doldrums.
The seat allocation between PH and BN will be very important towards maximising the alliance’s aggregate vote. This will have a major bearing over the election result.
We will also observe whether the charging of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin creates any ‘Abah factor’ – that of a leader who has been politically persecuted. This will be the first time to see if his pending prosecution plays any role in the result.
Finally, if there is any movement on the ‘Najib royal pardon’ issue, there could be massive repercussions. Expect this issue to go quiet for the next couple of months.
Although we can expect a swing against PH-BN from the 2018 result, this will not be enough for PN to take a couple of seats away from the ‘unity coalition’. – April 25, 2023
Australia-born Murray Hunter has been involved in Asia-Pacific business for the last 40 years as an entrepreneur, consultant, academic and researcher. He was previously an associate professor at the Universiti Malaya Perlis. This view which was published with the author’s consent first appeared on Free Malaysia Today under the heading “Negeri Sembilan may be a bridge too far for PN”.
No comments:
Post a Comment