“Ukraine war: How an ‘ignorant’ West misread Russia’s tactics” (Part 1)

“Ukraine war: How an ‘ignorant’ West misread Russia’s tactics” (Part 1)

By Jamari Mohtar




YESTERDAY, the war between Russia and Ukraine entered its 100th day, and the surprising resilience of Ukraine’s military makes it easy to misinterpret the current situation in Ukraine’s favour.

Not losing the war is itself a form of victory for Ukraine. However, not losing actually does not mean winning the war. Not winning is still not winning, as Ukraine is far from winning the war.

In fact, Ukraine is in far worse shape than what is believed and will continue to need a staggering amount of aid and support to win.

We all love an underdog – a plucky little guy who beats the odds, fuels hope for us and allows us to feel we are on the morally superior side.

This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed so successfully to the world. His defiance against the odds gave us someone to root for against a bully.

It is worth remembering Ukraine has been fighting a Russian invasion since 2014. Between then and Feb 2022, almost 10,000 were killed in the Donbas (collectively the area known as Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine), but little or no military progress was made.

Now Ukraine is fighting with that same army in an expanded theatre against a larger army – a testament to the pure courage of its troops that it has managed since Feb 24 not only to hold its line but also force the Russians into a retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and surrounding areas.

But is this true?

A week before Russia retreated from Kyiv, it has already told the whole world of its intention to withdraw from Kyiv to focus on Donbas. In essence, Donbas has always been its prime objective.

So, when Russia withdrew from Kyiv, it left a vacuum there, which was easily filled up by the Ukrainian army without a fight. Do you call this a meaningful victory for Ukraine when there is really no fighting to contend with?

And the Russian strategy of retreating to focus on Donbas is what military experts describe as a fixing operation; i.e. keeping the Ukrainian army fixated with “recapturing” the withdrawn areas, and thus did not reinforce its army in the Donbas to face the real battle until it is too late.

That has made it possible for Russia to now control significantly more Ukrainian territory than before Feb 24.

Whereas Ukrainian authorities controlled approximately 60% of Luhansk before the February invasion, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War now estimates “Russia controls more than 95% of the broader region of Luhansk as Kremlin-backed troops focus on eastern Ukraine three months into their struggling invasion”.

But is it fair to describe the invasion as “struggling” when Russia had stressed repeatedly that it has no deadline for accomplishing its “special military operation” to liberate the Donbas?

The withdrawal of Russian troops from areas around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, completed by April 3, was misleadingly seen as a significant victory for the Ukrainian authorities.

The removal of threat from the capital made it possible to return diplomatic institutions, organise the visits of foreign delegations to the sites of past battles, and convince the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries that Ukraine would be able to withstand the war against Russia if it received more serious weapons.

All this was presented to Ukrainians as laying the groundwork for preparing a counteroffensive in Kharkov, Kherson and the Donbas. – June 5, 2022



Jamari Mohtar is the Editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affairs.