Pelosi Visit To Taiwan A Headache For Biden – U.S. Worried China Could Impose No-Fly Zone & Shoot Down Her Plane

Pelosi Visit To Taiwan A Headache For Biden – U.S. Worried China Could Impose No-Fly Zone & Shoot Down Her Plane



Biden currently has enough on his plate. From high gas price to inflation and from record low approval rating to losing the Ukraine war, the president has no appetite for more problems. The last thing the Commander-in-Chief wants is another big war. Heck, the U.S. is reluctant to fight even a war with Russia, let alone a second war with China at the same time.



The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that America is selective in its war with foreign countries. The so-called military superpower will only declare a war with a weaker state that can be defeated, but not with nuclear nations like Russia or China. Vladimir Putin has called the U.S. and Europe bluff by invading Ukraine. And Xi Jinping has just called the U.S. bluff with a military response.



House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan is giving Joe Biden a terrible headache. While Beijing is known to have issued empty rhetorics in the past whenever Washington provoked it with arms sales, war ships and official visits, Pelosi will be the highest-ranking lawmaker ever to visit Taiwan. Pelosi had cancelled a planned April trip after testing positive for Covid-19.



Pelosi said – “I think that it’s important for us to show support for Taiwan”. However, President Biden said – “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now”. Apparently Pentagon has its concerns after Beijing warned that it will take “resolute and strong measures” should Speaker Pelosi, second in line to the presidency, proceed to visit Taiwan.



The last time a Speaker of U.S. House of Representatives visited Taiwan was 25 years ago when Newt Gingrich made a stop in 1997 to meet Taiwanese President Lee Teng Hui. However, China today is a very different animal compared to 25 years ago. Back then, tourists had to bring along an umbrella because Chinese public toilets did not even have doors, let alone a strong military.



In 1997, Mr Gingrich deliberately visited China and warned its leaders that America would intervene if they invaded Taiwan, just days before the U.S. Speaker’s trip to Taiwan. And when Beijing tried to throw tantrums by firing missiles into waters nearby Taiwan, the mighty U.S. sent two carrier groups to the area. With tail between legs, Beijing kept quiet.



Today, China has more warships than the U.S., not to mention “aircraft carrier killer” called the Dong-Feng 26, also known as the “Guam Express” or “Guam Killer”. Today, the Chinese military also has nuclear missiles that could hit the U.S. in 30 minutes. But what could possibly go wrong if Pelosi stubbornly insists that she will travel to Taiwan, come rain or shine?



Hu Xijin, former Global Times editor-in-chief, said China’s armed forces could impose a no-fly zone on Taiwan, sending fighter jets over the island. He also suggested that Chinese warplanes should “escort” Nancy Pelosi’s aircraft, and if they came under fire, China should attack Taiwan’s military aircraft and bases. Of course, things could go wrong and Pelosi’s plane could be shot down “accidentally”.



Pelosi’s trip would come at a sensitive time for Chinese President Xi Jinping, about 3 months before China’s 20th Communist Party congress, where he is expected to secure a third term. The House Speaker might think it is a good opportunity to provoke Beijing, betting that like 25 years ago, the Chinese government is still a toothless tiger that would not be able to do anything.



However, the visit would be a slap in the face of not only Xi Jinping, but also a humiliation to China if Pelosi is allowed to enter Taiwanese’s airspace in August without any challenge. Crucially, it will send the wrong message that Taiwan can officially declare independence because Beijing will not dare to invade the self-governing island which China claims as its own territory.



Essentially, a successful visit by Pelosi would severely undermine China’s sovereignty and territory integrity which it has been trumpeting for decades. Hence, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijiang said – “If the U.S. were to insist on going down the wrong path, China will take resolute and strong measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territory integrity”.



Biden’s response suggests that both the U.S. and Taiwan are caught with their pants down. If Pelosi cancels her trip, it will send a message that America indeed has no stomach for a military confrontation with China. It means in the event Beijing invades Taipei, the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s rescue and like Ukraine, the Yankees have zero interests to protect Taiwan except selling overpriced weapons.



On the other hand, if Pelosi went ahead with her trip, China might retaliate militarily at a critical time when the U.S. is not ready to engage. Biden’s reluctance to endorse Pelosi’s visit has raised suspicions in Taiwan that the U.S. is finding excuses to distance itself from Taipei as the POTUS desperately looking forward to have a phone call with President Xi in an effort to improve ties with Beijing.




As Washington is currently distracted by Ukraine war in Europe, China could be looking for the slightest opportunity to take advantage of the conflict to capture Taiwan. The U.S. would be humiliated if Pelosi’s plane could be prevented from landing in Taiwan. Biden and the Democrats would be in deep trouble if Pelosi’s security could not be secured and her plane is suddenly shot down in a chaotic no-fly zone engagement.



Allowing Pelosi’s plane to be escorted by the Chinese Liberation Army’s warplanes to prevent military confrontation would see Taiwanese airspace violated, indirectly legitimize Beijing’s claim over the island. The House Speaker’s visit provides China the window to provoke and test the readiness of Taiwan and the U.S. of an all-out war.



Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating has slammed Pelosi of inflaming tensions with Beijing and risking a military conflict by planning to visit Taiwan. Keating said on Monday that it was hard to imagine “a more reckless and provocative act”. He also said Pelosi’s visit would be unprecedented – foolish, dangerous and unnecessary to any cause other than her own.



It’s debatable whether this is a good time or not for Xi Jinping to provoke a military conflict right before the party congress. For decades, the U.S. has been looking down on China’s capability, especially past leaders’ weakness and cowardice in standing up to the West. Mr Xi would be the first leader who dares to challenge – for real – the U.S. after the 1997’s empty rhetoric.



The rising wave of nationalism and the support for reuniting with Taiwan is running high. Taking a page from U.S. playbook, a military conflict is definitely a good distraction from the weakening domestic economy as a result of global inflation and zero-Covid policy. Xi Jinping has to be seen as a strong leader ahead of the congress to secure his third term.



During a visit to Indonesia on Sunday, U.S. top General Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Chinese military has become significantly more aggressive and dangerous over the past 5 years. He was probably referring to U.S. allies, who have been subject to Chinese harassment in the South China Sea recently.



In its complaint lodged on June 1, the Canadian Armed Forces accused Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) fighter jets of approaching and “harassing” the Canadian surveillance CP-140 Aurora plane between April 26 and May 26. The Chinese jets repeatedly buzzed Canadian plane and had flown dangerously and unprofessionally.



The Canadian Forces said Chinese fighter jets frequently fly as close as 20 to 100 feet from the Canadian plane – so close that Canadian pilots can make eye contact with the Chinese pilots. But that was not the only tensions in the air. Sometimes, Canadian pilots have complained, the Chinese pilots could be seen showing “middle fingers”.



In February, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison went ballistic and demanded Beijing to explain the “dangerous” and “reckless” act of using a laser to “illuminate” the Australian Poseidon. Apparently, Canberra had sent a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft to spy on two Chinese warships sailing through the Arafura Sea between New Guinea and Australia, only to be attacked with a laser beam.



Likewise, in 2019, Australian navy pilots claimed they were forced to land their helicopters after lasers were aimed at them during a military exercise over the South China Sea. However, Canberra could not determine if the lasers originated from Chinese fishing boats were accidentally unleashed by startled fishermen or if they were part of a coordinated move to disrupt the Australian exercise.



While a military grade laser could destroy radar equipment and blind the aircraft’s pilot, China has reportedly developed “Star Wars” laser weapons. Lasers could be used to disable or shoot down air-to-air missiles or even destroy aircraft or ballistic missiles, depending on how powerful the laser is. Last year, the U.S. expressed its concerns over China and Russia’s laser weapons and electronic jammers.