Why Anwar isn't interested in a by-election?

Chan Kok Leong of Malaysiakini wrote a good article on AAB’s first 100 days in his new term as PM titled The siege of Abdullah.

You have the usual suspects – Dr M, his son Mukhriz Mahatir, the royalty of several states sensing a weak PM, Ku Li out for a last and really final stab at being PM, etc etc etc - applying the stick on AAB.

But the one I was interested in is ;-) you know who.

Malaysiakini wrote: Anwar and other PKR leaders have taken turns to taunt Abdullah with “impending” crossovers almost on a weekly basis. Pakatan now claims it has enticed two more MPs to add to the opposition total of 82. It has issued an open invitation to other BN parliamentarians to join them.

In reality the two SAPP MPs recently avoided a no confidence vote in the motion on the fuel price by absenting themselves from the Dewan, so the impression we get would be they aren’t as certain as Yong Teck Lee in opposing AAB or crossing over to PKR.

I personally believe that Anwar’s taunting and the current G.A.N campaign have been the standard manoeuvre to pry a way back into UMNO for Anwar Ibrahim.

I was wondering why he hasn’t made any move to stand for a by-election in, say, Bandar Tun Razak or Balik Pulau or his old seat Permatang Pauh after his legal barring was over in mid April. He could have easily won on the immediate ‘halo’ effect of the tsunamic victory by the Pakatan Rakyat.

I had toyed around with this possibility in Where will Anwar Ibrahim stand for Parliament?

Then recently, in a Malaysiakini (or was it Star Online) article, Khalid Ibrahim discounted Bandar Tun Razak as a possible by-election constituency for Anwar because it would become the most dangerous seat for his de facto leader, implying perhaps that the BN would pour in everything including the kitchen sink to make sure Anwar loses.

Of course they could be another reason, that the BMC residents are by now less than (previously) enamoured of PKR after the prolonged road toll saga which had a few casualties.

I thought to myself that perhaps Anwar wants to play absolutely safe and only stand in a by-election after the froggies have come over in enough numbers for his party to claim majority rule (though of course there’s Karpal Singh to contend with). As the de facto leader of the ruling party in government he will be reasonably protected from UMNO tactics, with which he knows plenty of.

But wait, there could well be a third reason.

I harkened back to my original thoughts about Anwar which I posted in Can we trust Anwar Ibrahim? I then wrote (extracts):

Anwar is not comfy with the Pakatan. All the boasts about frogs belie his fears of a Pakatan disagreement over his shameless undemocratic taunting of how he intends to win rule through promoting party hopping, a tactic he mastered when he was in UMNO. You can take the bloke out of UMNO but you can’t take UMNO out of the bloke.

His froggy scheme can be undone in just one fell hop swoop by an uncooperative bloke like Karpal Singh whom, I believe, won’t bloody tolerate the disgraceful nonsense of robbing power through backdoor non-democracy.

He wants UMNO to ask him ‘to come home’. Then he won’t need to depend on the DAP or PAS, but especially the DAP.

Look, his man Khalid Ibrahim had felt bloody awkward forming up the Selangor exco, avoiding the appointment of the deputy MB because of too many Chinese faces. It’s bad enough having the DAP full of ‘nons’ but the ethnic situation has been compounded by the PKR ‘nons’. Quite unlike an UMNO-MCA-MIC situation.

Perak was another case in point, where the Regent by unexpectedly appointing a PAS man as the MB, had even further reduced the PKR’s standing.

And Penang?!! Need I say more?

It’s not an image Anwar wants the heartland to see, and real power can only come from the support of the heartland.

No doubt Anwar had done his part to keep the Pakatan in a cohesive form during the election campaign (and no one can take that away from him) but it wasn’t just for altruistic reasons. His strategy was to reduce the BN-UMNO majority to less than 2/3, and then voila, to present his inner coterie as the component available (after an invitation) to restore UMNO’s 2/3, but AAB wasn’t biting for various reasons.

Hence he is piling the pressure on AAB daily with his froggie forecast. The subtext? Anwar wants back into UMNO ... or else!

Another worry for him which is also slowly sinking in for his supporters is that PKR was borne along in the election mainly by Chinese and Indian votes. Push comes to shove, should the DAP and PKR come to a head on, except for a minority among the younger more idealistic set, most Chinese and Indian voters would opt for the DAP, or worse, even return to the BN.

Anwar won’t have a dream of ever weaning away the PAS and UMNO hardcore supporters into his camp. It’ll be a far tougher fight in the next election. And just don't forget, his PKR's 31 seats aren't pure PKR, not with Dr Jeya and Wee and perhaps a couple more. This may explain his continuous and frantic claims of frogs.

And I suspect the periodic attacks on Najib by using the Altantuyaa case in the most sensational manner is part of the pressure on UMNO, virtually saying “hey, surely you guys don’t want a future leader like murder-tainted Najib?” or/and "get me a.s.a.p or I'll give you more hell on this" – see my lamentation for Altantuyaa Shariibuu in this regard in Murdering Altantuyaa Shaariibuu Again.

… which may explain the third reason, and probably the most likely of them, that he hasn’t offered himself as a candidate in any by-election (look, just one word from him and at least half a dozen acolytes would readily surrender their seats to him) has been because he wants to re-enter UMNO as a person ‘untainted’ by being a representative of any other party like Ku Li was of Semangat 46.

When and if he returns (not if many UMNO people can help it) he will then demand a seat to stand in a by-election, as an UMNO candidate.

Oh, don’t forget too his yet to be appealed court case for wrongful dismissal from his No 2 spot in the cabinet – hey, he could well be successful as I had blogged in Anwar Ibrahim on way back to UMNO via court appeal?

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