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OPINION | Anwar May Not Be the One Deciding When the Next Election Happens
16 May 2026 • 5:30 PM MYT
Image credit: Malay Mail
Yesterday, the government spokesperson Fahmi Fadzil made it sound as if Anwar is a powerful and benevolent figure, who can determine when the general election will be called.
Despite being able to call elections whenever he deems fit, Anwar, Fahmi is depicting, has no plans for calling the elections anytime soon, because he is busy helping the people.
“The prime minister has not given any signal that GE16 will take place this year, but he has stressed that efforts to resolve the problems faced by ordinary Malaysians must continue,” Fahmi said after an event in his Lembah Pantai parliamentary constituency.
I don't know what Anwar and his friends Ramanan and Farhash are doing to "resolve the problems faced by ordinary Malaysians", but what I do know is that Anwar is not going to be the one that determines when the next general election will be called.
We might be accustomed to believing that it is the prerogative of the prime minister to determine when to dissolve Parliament and call for elections, but that is only the case because for the longest time - up to 2018 to be specific - our government had always held at least a simple majority, if not a two-thirds supermajority, in parliament.
In 2022 however, Anwar won GE15 with just 82 out of the 222 Parliament seats - or just 37 percent of the seats. He only managed to form the government with the bare minimum requirement of 112 seats with the help of BN, who contributed 30 seats. After BN agreed to support PH, Anwar would later also gain the support of other parties, chiefly the Sarawak ruling coalition GPS and the Sabah ruling coalition GRS, to create the unity government, that purportedly has a two-thirds majority in Parliament.
But the two-thirds majority that the unity government has is just a fugazi - a make-believe - a mirage.
In reality, what Anwar truly has are the 82 seats that PH won. Of these 82 seats, the majority, or 40 seats, is held by DAP while Anwar's own PKR has 31 seats.
Of PKR's 31 seats, 10 belong to MPs that are supportive of Rafizi, and Rafizi has already stated that he will be making an "extraordinary" announcement this Sunday about his political direction.
If Rafizi announces this Sunday that he intends to leave PKR and form his own party, and if the 10 PKR MPs that are standing by him follow suit, then PKR will be down to just 21 MPs.
If that is not bad enough, DAP has also announced that it will be conducting an internal referendum this July to determine whether it still wants to serve in Anwar's administration.
Although DAP has said that even if the result of its internal referendum makes it unavoidable DAP to withdraw from participating in Anwar's administration, it will still support Anwar in Parliament, but in terms of perception, DAP withdrawing meaningful support for Anwar will inevitably cause Anwar's rule to lose it potency and authority.
In other words, without DAP, Anwar will be ruling the country in the same way that Aminuddin is currently ruling Negeri Sembilan.
Just as how Aminuddin is ruling Negeri Sembilan although he only has the support of 17 ADUNs out of the 36 ADUNs in the state assembly, and is only retaining his administration because the opposition in the state assembly, who outnumber his supporters, have grudgingly decided not to overthrow him, Anwar will also be ruling the country, not because he is has authority or carries the mandate of the people or because he has the confidence of the House, but simply because DAP is reluctant to overthrow him.
If PKR loses 10 MPs to Rafizi and if Anwar's rule is only surviving with the bare minimum support from DAP, then all it will take is for either BN, GPS or GRS to withdraw support from his rule, and his reign will collapse like a house of cards.
There is a good chance that BN might withdraw support for Anwar in the not too distant future, because BN is clearly unhappy being part of the unity government. It is so unhappy, that it has already withdrawn support for the state unity government of Negeri Sembilan just a few weeks ago and repeatedly claims that it intends to go solo in the next election. Considering that, it is hard to see what will persuade BN, which already has one foot out of the door, to remain supportive of Anwar, if Anwar loses 10 PKR MPs to Rafizi and meaningful support from DAP.
And even if BN does not pull the rug from under Anwar's feet and force an election to be called, the Sabah MPs or the Sarawak MPs might do it, because they aren't exactly happy with Anwar's rule either.
The Sabahans are expecting Anwar's administration to hand them 40 percent of their revenue, as per a court ruling last year.
According to Sabah Deputy Chief Minister I Datuk Seri Panglima Dr. Jeffrey Kitingan, based on the numbers from 2025 and early 2026, the 40 percent net revenue entitlement to Sabah is estimated to be worth roughly RM20 billion per year as of March 2025.
If calculated back from 1974, estimates suggest Sabah could be owed over RM136 billion to RM150 billion in arrears, excluding potential interest.
I don't know about you, but I have serious doubts that the federal government is going to give back RM20 billion a year, let alone RM150 billion in arrears, to Sabah - ever.
If Sabah does not get its money back, I don't see how it is going to continue to support Anwar's reign, when its support of Anwar's reign is already tenuous to begin with.
As it is with Sabah, so it is with Sarawak, which has its own oil and gas dispute with the federal government. The Sarawak state government has even filed a petition in Malaysia's Federal Court challenging the validity of three federal petroleum laws, in a move that aims to secure its rights over oil and gas resources and confirm the authority of state-owned Petros as the exclusive gas aggregator, challenging Petronas's long-standing control.
Considering that Anwar never had a majority in Parliament - and considering the fact that he might lose 10 of his own party's MPs in the foreseeable future, or lose meaningful support from DAP, or be betrayed by BN or be abandoned by Sabah or Sarawak - I really don't think it is in Anwar's hands as to when the general election will be called.
Anwar currently is in a very weak position, in terms of numbers as well as mandate.
His mandate is so weak that according to internal PKR analysis, he is most likely to lose his Tambun seat if an election is held today.
If I were to give an analogy, I would say that Anwar's administration is currently sitting on a chair with three legs, and one of the legs is already wobbly.
If it is not already hard enough for Anwar to balance himself on the three legged chair, the fact that the slightest force might collapse another leg, and that there are multiple forces that could act on the weak leg , makes it hard to see how Anwar is the one who will decide when the next elections will be called.
The third wobbly leg that his reign is depending on might collapse for multiple reasons in the near future , and when that happens, rather than him calling for elections, it might be elections that will be calling on him, regardless of whether he is ready to face it or not.
Yesterday, the government spokesperson Fahmi Fadzil made it sound as if Anwar is a powerful and benevolent figure, who can determine when the general election will be called.
Despite being able to call elections whenever he deems fit, Anwar, Fahmi is depicting, has no plans for calling the elections anytime soon, because he is busy helping the people.
“The prime minister has not given any signal that GE16 will take place this year, but he has stressed that efforts to resolve the problems faced by ordinary Malaysians must continue,” Fahmi said after an event in his Lembah Pantai parliamentary constituency.
I don't know what Anwar and his friends Ramanan and Farhash are doing to "resolve the problems faced by ordinary Malaysians", but what I do know is that Anwar is not going to be the one that determines when the next general election will be called.
We might be accustomed to believing that it is the prerogative of the prime minister to determine when to dissolve Parliament and call for elections, but that is only the case because for the longest time - up to 2018 to be specific - our government had always held at least a simple majority, if not a two-thirds supermajority, in parliament.
In 2022 however, Anwar won GE15 with just 82 out of the 222 Parliament seats - or just 37 percent of the seats. He only managed to form the government with the bare minimum requirement of 112 seats with the help of BN, who contributed 30 seats. After BN agreed to support PH, Anwar would later also gain the support of other parties, chiefly the Sarawak ruling coalition GPS and the Sabah ruling coalition GRS, to create the unity government, that purportedly has a two-thirds majority in Parliament.
But the two-thirds majority that the unity government has is just a fugazi - a make-believe - a mirage.
In reality, what Anwar truly has are the 82 seats that PH won. Of these 82 seats, the majority, or 40 seats, is held by DAP while Anwar's own PKR has 31 seats.
Of PKR's 31 seats, 10 belong to MPs that are supportive of Rafizi, and Rafizi has already stated that he will be making an "extraordinary" announcement this Sunday about his political direction.
If Rafizi announces this Sunday that he intends to leave PKR and form his own party, and if the 10 PKR MPs that are standing by him follow suit, then PKR will be down to just 21 MPs.
If that is not bad enough, DAP has also announced that it will be conducting an internal referendum this July to determine whether it still wants to serve in Anwar's administration.
Although DAP has said that even if the result of its internal referendum makes it unavoidable DAP to withdraw from participating in Anwar's administration, it will still support Anwar in Parliament, but in terms of perception, DAP withdrawing meaningful support for Anwar will inevitably cause Anwar's rule to lose it potency and authority.
In other words, without DAP, Anwar will be ruling the country in the same way that Aminuddin is currently ruling Negeri Sembilan.
Just as how Aminuddin is ruling Negeri Sembilan although he only has the support of 17 ADUNs out of the 36 ADUNs in the state assembly, and is only retaining his administration because the opposition in the state assembly, who outnumber his supporters, have grudgingly decided not to overthrow him, Anwar will also be ruling the country, not because he is has authority or carries the mandate of the people or because he has the confidence of the House, but simply because DAP is reluctant to overthrow him.
If PKR loses 10 MPs to Rafizi and if Anwar's rule is only surviving with the bare minimum support from DAP, then all it will take is for either BN, GPS or GRS to withdraw support from his rule, and his reign will collapse like a house of cards.
There is a good chance that BN might withdraw support for Anwar in the not too distant future, because BN is clearly unhappy being part of the unity government. It is so unhappy, that it has already withdrawn support for the state unity government of Negeri Sembilan just a few weeks ago and repeatedly claims that it intends to go solo in the next election. Considering that, it is hard to see what will persuade BN, which already has one foot out of the door, to remain supportive of Anwar, if Anwar loses 10 PKR MPs to Rafizi and meaningful support from DAP.
And even if BN does not pull the rug from under Anwar's feet and force an election to be called, the Sabah MPs or the Sarawak MPs might do it, because they aren't exactly happy with Anwar's rule either.
The Sabahans are expecting Anwar's administration to hand them 40 percent of their revenue, as per a court ruling last year.
According to Sabah Deputy Chief Minister I Datuk Seri Panglima Dr. Jeffrey Kitingan, based on the numbers from 2025 and early 2026, the 40 percent net revenue entitlement to Sabah is estimated to be worth roughly RM20 billion per year as of March 2025.
If calculated back from 1974, estimates suggest Sabah could be owed over RM136 billion to RM150 billion in arrears, excluding potential interest.
I don't know about you, but I have serious doubts that the federal government is going to give back RM20 billion a year, let alone RM150 billion in arrears, to Sabah - ever.
If Sabah does not get its money back, I don't see how it is going to continue to support Anwar's reign, when its support of Anwar's reign is already tenuous to begin with.
As it is with Sabah, so it is with Sarawak, which has its own oil and gas dispute with the federal government. The Sarawak state government has even filed a petition in Malaysia's Federal Court challenging the validity of three federal petroleum laws, in a move that aims to secure its rights over oil and gas resources and confirm the authority of state-owned Petros as the exclusive gas aggregator, challenging Petronas's long-standing control.
Considering that Anwar never had a majority in Parliament - and considering the fact that he might lose 10 of his own party's MPs in the foreseeable future, or lose meaningful support from DAP, or be betrayed by BN or be abandoned by Sabah or Sarawak - I really don't think it is in Anwar's hands as to when the general election will be called.
Anwar currently is in a very weak position, in terms of numbers as well as mandate.
His mandate is so weak that according to internal PKR analysis, he is most likely to lose his Tambun seat if an election is held today.
If I were to give an analogy, I would say that Anwar's administration is currently sitting on a chair with three legs, and one of the legs is already wobbly.
If it is not already hard enough for Anwar to balance himself on the three legged chair, the fact that the slightest force might collapse another leg, and that there are multiple forces that could act on the weak leg , makes it hard to see how Anwar is the one who will decide when the next elections will be called.
The third wobbly leg that his reign is depending on might collapse for multiple reasons in the near future , and when that happens, rather than him calling for elections, it might be elections that will be calling on him, regardless of whether he is ready to face it or not.
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