Apr 13, 2026
Has Saudi Arabia acquired a nuclear option via Pakistan?
Saudi Arabia now going alone in the gulf conflict
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, during the former's official visit to Riyadh last year (Times Now World)
The September 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudia Arabia and Pakistan has sparked some speculation about a possible “nuclear umbrella,” where Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent could implicitly cover Saudi Arabia in cases of aggression.
A joint statement made by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the signing SMDA said that any aggression against one as aggression against both, although nuclear weapons were not specifically mentioned. A senior Saudi official was report to have told Reuters that the agreement “encompasses all military means”. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif stated in a September 18, 2025 in a GeoTV interview that Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia according to the agreement, in response to a question about extending nuclear deterrence. He described it as part of joint defense against aggression.
Over the last 6 weeks, it has become very clear that the US-Israeli war against Iran has become an existential on for Saudi Arabia. Iran has threatened “irreversible destruction” of water infrastructure, particularly desalination facilities which Saudi Arabia depends upon for 60 percent of its water needs. The Iranian threat was made in response to US President Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s electricity grid. Consequently, Saudi Arabia has no control or influence over the events going on within the gulf. The Iranian war is beginning to threatened the very existence of some of the gulf state monarchies.
With the Strait of Hormuz already closed and the new US blockade expected to cause more problems, it is expected that this will deepen Saudi dependence on the Red Sea to ship out oil. If the Houthis in Yemen enter the war, there is the possibility the Red Sea could be closed where Saudi oil is now going by pipeline through the port of Yanbu to customers. Yanbu itself is a target and if hit Saudi would find itself without any income.
It has also become very apparent that housing US forces in Saudi Arabia is now detrimental for Saudi Arabia’s own defence.
With the Iranian war expected to continue after failed talks between US Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian delegation in Islamabad over the last weekend, the war is expected to take a turn for the worse with the gulf states and Saudi Arabia feeling the brunt of it.
Its now possible that Saudi Arabia has prepared to take matters into its own hands, as the US have failed deeply to act in Saudi’s best interests.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence announced in mid-April the arrival of some 10-18 Pakistani F-16 Block 52 variant fighter jets and support aircraft at the base to boost security, enhance joint military coordination, and raise operational readiness amid regional tensions. They were also accompanied by ground personnel and troops. Reports claim there are 13,000 Pakistani troops now in Saudi Arabia.
The F-16s are believed to be capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. Pakistan has approximately 36 nuclear warheads capable of being carried on the F-16 platform. It is believed that Pakistan Squadron 5 is in Saudi Arabia. Squadron 5 is Pakistan’s most elite fighter group.
While it is publicly claimed these aircraft are in Saudi Arabia for training purposes, its questionable as only Pakistani pilots crew these aircraft. It would not be logical for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to be undertaking training in a war zone where these aircraft would be in danger.
Saudi Arabia’s rhetoric and behavior must now be closely examined as they may now act on their own behalf, rather than rely on US presence and action. This could also explain why Iran has spared Saudi Arabia from some of the aggressive missile attacks the rest of the gulf experienced.
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