GE15 for Muhyiddin

MM Online:

Now just one of many Malay parties in Perikatan, analysts say Bersatu unlikely to get preferential treatment for seats

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin at a press conference in Semenyih February 9, 2019

Picture by Shafwan Zaidon

KUALA LUMPUR, June 21 -— When the fledgling Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) contested the 14th general election with Pakatan Harapan, it was given an unlikely 52 seats to contest despite being the smallest and youngest party in the coalition.

The rationale then was for it to put up a direct challenge against Umno in the contest for the crucial Malay vote, which it ultimately did not deliver when it won just 13 of the federal constituencies it contested.

Amid rumours that Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was planning to call an early general election to secure his own mandate, it was believed that his party intends to again contest for nearly the same number of seats as in 2018.

This time, however, it will not be the sole Malay party in its coalition but just one of many. What has not changed, however, is that it will again be the youngest and smallest of those in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) that include Umno and PAS.

According to Professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid from Universiti Sains Malaysia, PN was also formed hastily to replace PH in the government and before any concrete arrangements were set in place.

“So, come the general election, what can guarantee Bersatu as many as 50 seats in Malay-majority constituencies that Umno and PAS will be similarly vying for?” asked Ahmad Fauzi.

“Bersatu will be denied the upper hand in inter-party negotiations by virtue of its marginal position in Malay-Muslim politics vis-a-vis Umno and PAS. Bersatu’s fate will ipso facto be in the hands of Umno and to a lesser extent PAS.”

Complicating matters for Bersatu’s purported ambition is the fact that most of the seats it contested in 2018 were against Umno that is now nominally an ally, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Professor Azmi Hassan explained.

Azmi also pointed out that ties among the other PN members were far more significant than what Bersatu has with any of them.

Aside from Besatu, the informal PN included the Barisan Nasional (BN), Muafakat Nasional (MN), and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalitions; Parti Bersatu Sabah, and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR).

BN — the former 13-member ruling alliance now whittled down to just Umno, MCA, and MIC — has existed since the formation of the country while GPS was in fact the Sarawak arm of the coalition that broke off after the general election.

The PN coalition that comprised portions of BN with PAS has also been formalised through a charter. These independent ties meant that among the leading parties of PN, Bersatu effectively stood alone.

Azmi then said Bersatu likely profited from the support of PKR and DAP votes in the previous general election, meaning it would most likely have to depend on Malay votes that would put it on a collision path with its new PN partners.

Lucky 'Tuk has 2 'orang asing' Tai-Siow working for him and PPBM

“The 13 that Bersatu won are mostly votes that come from DAP and PKR supporters and therefore Bersatu will be looking at predominantly Malay voters which overlaps with Umno-PAS strongholds.

“Looking at the current political scenario, where Bersatu is not that strong in terms of grassroots support, the number 50 is very aloof indeed,” said Azmi.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Professor Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid expressed similar views and added that Bersatu was not in a position to dictate the allocation of seats as this required consensus among partner parties.

Such negotiations reduced the likelihood that Bersatu could claim 50 seats — nearly a quarter of the country’s 222 federal constituencies — if PN was to head into the 15th general election as a coalition.

Bersatu in Muafakat Nasional, whether headed by Muhyiddin or, as originally planned (even in Muafakat Nasional), by Mahathir, will have difficulty getting its old PH allocation of 52 seats (in GE14 it won only 13).

Let's eff those 'orang asing'

There are already too many big-time Malay parties contesting in the Malay Heartland, eg. UMNO and PAS.

Bersatu (PPBM) was ONLY able to win 13 in GE14 mainly because of the support of its DAP and PKR multiracial allies, courtesy of his bromance matey, KHAT-Ass. But typically of Mamak, he showed little appreciation for the multiracial support of his Malay-only PPBM, without which his old party might not even have won 13, let alone his unrealistic and indeed unrealised ambition of 52. I wouldn't be even surprised if he was even angry at that, the eff-ing support by 'orang asing' for him to win the 13.

The Tanjung Piai by-election was an eye-opener to his racist eyes as where his PPBM stood - yes, on very tenuous grounds vis-a-vis UMNO (BN), PAS and PKR. PPBM was a nobody except perhaps in Langkawi wakakaka.

But I am inclined to believe Muhyiddin is far more realistic, pragmatic and probably has already worked out the odds of PPBM's chances in GE15, no doubt to his alarm and dismay. In consolatory thoughts, he might just say "Eff it. I've already achieved my life long dream of being PM Malaysia. Am I not better than Anwar? So what if I lose - moe maan tai (no problem lah)", wakakaka.

His party's chances in GE15 seats allocation amongst Muafakat will be a nightmare, considering PPBM (whether headed by him or Mahathir) will definitely be shunned by non-Malays (who now detest the very image of Mahathir) and the reality that PAS and UMNO won't give much way to his party in Malay-dominated seats. His PPBM is truly and well eff-ed on both sides of the ethnic fence.

Only 1 face-saving way for him - rejoin UMNO and cast away that stupid Mahathir-ised skin of PPBM (UMNO III). As a consolation, UMNO may even allowed him to be PM for 2 years or so before he gracefully "retired" at 75. Thus he can still win (with mucho face-water) with the added cream on top, to sneer and jeer at Mahathir, wakakaka.