Satellite data indicates that Cambodia had a pre-determined plan before the conflict

Murray Hunter


Satellite data indicates that Cambodia had a pre-determined plan before the conflict


Jul 26, 2025




Imagery of Cambodian trenches built across into Thai territory at Chong Bok area last May.



Back on the morning of July 24, the Cambodian response to a firefight between Thai and Cambodian soldiers at Ta Muen Thom Temple in Surin appeared to instantaneously escalate along the Thai-Cambodian border from Ubom Ratchathani to Sakaeo, over 150km spread. Such an escalation just doesn’t occur over such a long distance. There appears to be some pre-meditated plan behind the Cambodian actions.

A satellite data analyst Nathan Ruser from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) on his X account postulates from the data, that the Cambodian military had prepared for what happened months before. Nathan has run previous analysis on places like the Russian-Ukraine and China-India borders.

According to his analysis, most signs of military buildup and rising tensions appear to have originated on the Cambodian side. Cambodian military forces had reinforced various positions well before the May 28 incident and rapidly deployed strategic reinforcements immediately afterward.

Ruser’s examination of escalation data found:

• 33 escalatory events instigated by Cambodia
• 14 escalatory events instigated by Thailand, and
• 9 joint de-escalatory events

Within his X posting on July 25, Nathan also highlighted several key movements in the timeline:

The construction and fortification of the Phomn Phrasitthi Outpost near Preah Vihear temple. This demonstrates that frontline and strategic fortification was taking place across the border pre-May 28 and not just Chong Bok.


The rapid and intense deployment of elite and strategic units to the frontline the day after the May 28th clashes, including tanks, artillery and air defence. These suggest that Cambodian command was likely more prepared for an escalation in clashes and immediately responded. The Thai response indicated this.


The temporary (90min) occupation of positions within Cambodia by a Thai company (more organised and larger than a patrol that had strayed) on June 19th, showing that escalation was coming from multiple sides.


A larger Cambodian patrol “blocked” a Thai patrol on June 30th and continued their patrol in what Thailand asserted was its territory.


The scale of large ammo transfers to the border from Cambodia in late June.

Although this round of escalations appeared to begin back in mid-February when a group of Cambodian soldiers escorted a group of Cambodian civilian nationalists at Ta Muen Thom, preparation for a much larger confrontation had been prepared by Cambodia since that time. Satellite imagery clearly shows work began on improving roads at Sam Yaek Lao junction in Chong Bok by troops. Activities building strongholds and bunkers occurred along the Thai-Cambodian border since that date. Nathan also reported that 500,000 AK rounds, and RPGs, were shipped from the Cambodian Navel Base in Shianoukville to the frontlines in Preah Vihear.

Was the visit of Cambodian nationalists last February to Ta Muen Thom a random event or was it on purpose?

The above information will become less important as the conflict progresses, but it weakens the claims that “Thailand loves war” and “Thailand fired the first shot”.

Superimposing Hun Sen’s personnel antagonisms over Thaksin Shinawatra points to some personal nuances in these clashes that political analysts have not picked up on as yet.

In addition, there were fortifications going on at Preah Vihear since late 2024, while Thai positions across the barbed wire lines had almost been emptied of military personnel.

Abandoned Thai bunker last January at Preah Vihear.

Truth is the first casualty in war.