Semenyih by-elections March 2019

Stats here are all rounded up for convenient reading - I've also used percentiles rather than actual numer of votes as this provides a better comparison between the 2013 GE and 2018 GE since voter population of the Seminyih constituency would have grown/increased between 2013 and 2018:

In last year's general election (GE14), Pribumi (PPBM) contesting under PH logo of PKR) won 51% of the votes in Semenyih.

But if UMNO and PAS were to collaborate (which doesn't automatically or necessary translate into total combination of their 2018 votes), the UMNO candidate participating in the by-election may theoretically win 46 - 47% of the votes.

Then there is Die-Hard Arutchelvan, who obtained about 3% in the last GE, mentioning he may compete again.

With a constituency of 70% Malays, 17% Chinese and 13% Indians, the nons will be the 'kingmaker' again, a situation purported planned by Mahathir during his earlier PM-regime (1981 - 2003). The old man had allowed for a split in Malay votes, to wit, between his then-UMNO and archfoe PAS, and for the nons to back UMNO out of fear of a hudud-bent PAS, wakakaka (that's why he banned Israel form competing in a supposed to-be-held by Malaysia sporting event.

Selangor state election, 2018 

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	PH	Bakhtiar Mohd Nor	23,428	50.76	+ 14.84
	BN	Johan Abd Aziz	14,464	31.34	- 17.55
	PAS	Mad Shahmiour Mat Kosim	6,966	15.09	+ 15.09
	PSM	Arutchelvan Subramaniams	1,293	2.80	- 12.39
Total valid votes			46,151	100.00
Total rejected ballots			366
Unreturned ballots			55
Turnout			46,572	87.45
Registered electors			53,257
Majority			8,964	19.42
	PH gain from BN

Semenyih has 53,257 voters with 69.4% of them Malays, 17.2% Chinese, 13.3% Indians and 0.01% (Other races).

The 2013 General Election saw Johan triumph with a 4,747-vote majority against PKR's Hamidi A. Hasan (13,1650 and Arutchelvan (5,568).

Arutchelvan had lost to Johan by merely 1,140 votes in the 2008 General Election.

Selangor state election, 2013 

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	BN	Johan Abd Aziz	17,922	48.89	- 3.70
	PKR	Hamidi A. Hasan	13,165	35.92	- 11.49
	PSM	Arutchelvan Subramaniams	5,568	15.19	+ 15.19
Total valid votes			36,655	100.00
Total rejected ballots			701
Unreturned ballots			216
Turnout			37,572	88.73
Registered electors			42,344
Majority			4,757
	BN hold		Swing

In 2018, a political wave changed the government for the first time, alhough technically Malaysia still has the same old UMNO-ish PM in Mahathir so in reality no change to the old racism and Pribumi dominace in PH a la UMNO dominance in BN.

That same wave saw Pribumi (contesting under PKR logo) increasing its 2013's 36% (by the actual PKR) to 2018's 51% whilst respectively UMNO went (2013 to 2018) from 49% to 31% and PAS contesting only in 2018 seized 16%.

OTOH, poor Arutchelvan suffered a loss of 12%, from 2013's 15% to 2018's 3%.

On the basis of the 2018 GE result, Pribumi should win in the coming March by-election as it has a handsome 51% share of the votes won last year. But a few factors need to be taken into considerations, namely:

(a) the Cameron Highlands by-election saw, as shown by Bridget Welsh in MKINI's ‘Old Malaysia’ in Cameron Highlands, the Malays swinging to BN-UMNO by over 31.5%.

One can argue that the Malays in Semenyih are not Heartland/FELDA Melayu and thus won't swing so much even if they swing.

But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.

With Arutchelvan competing, this time under a Pakatan with diminished lustre and thus probably under better auspices for PSM, he may drag away more votes from Pakatan.

As for the Chinese 'kingmakers', remember, above stats were based on the 2018 GE turnout of 87.45%. Apa lagi Cina bolih buat?