Perilous Prediction for PAS

GE-14 is definitely coming and everyone is brimming with excitement, hope or dread, depending upon who you were, are and want (hope) to be.

But the common denominator in all these brouhaha has been about the likely future and impact of PAS.

My personal thoughts are that PAS as the 3rd Party will kacau everyone to the benefit of BN (UMNO), especially in 3-corner competitions, thus I had labelled PAS as King-Maker in GE-14, an issue which I blogged on and posted early this month as PAS Selangor is King-Maker.

But it seems I have been wrong as we will soon read.

OK, let's look at Selangor state and not get our knickers in a bunch unnecessarily in states like Penang where at most PAS may pick up a few of PKR's Heartland seats.

I am thinking of Penang state seats in the Permatang Pauh federal constituency like N.10 Seberang Jaya and N.12 Penanti where a PKR weeping willow grows outside a bloody factory in the latter, wakakaka.

PAS is already holding N.11 Permatang Pasir and looks quite strong too. I believe PKR may have a wee problem in the Permatang Pauh constituency and its 3 state seats.

incumbent for Permatang Pasir 

Naturally pro Pakatan (and probably anti PAS, wakakaka) political commentators like my blogging and DAP matey, Ong Kian Ming, has given his analysis on the likely influence or political effect on the Selangor state elections as being favourable to Pakatan , mildly unfavourable to BN and disastrous to PAS.

Kian Ming tells us that in Selangor his worst case scenario for Pakatan will still be a 35 seats win in a DUN of 56 (29 to win), thus Pakatan (this time without PAS) will continue to form the state government with a comfortable majority of 6.

If correctly predicted I wonder who may end up being the new MB? Wakakaka. By the by, Tian Chua can still stand in Batu as he has accepted a one-month jail term plus a RM1,000 fine for some naughty violation, which are both below the disqualification-from-election limit of more than one-year's jail or RM2,000 fine.

Anyway, Kian Ming believes that Chinese and Indian support for PAS in GE-14 will exceed gravitational acceleration (that's plummeting downwards, wakakaka) and hit Earth to exit in the other hemisphere a la The China Syndrome (pun not intended), wakakaka again.

In GE-13 PAS received 80% and 60% of registered Chinese and Indian voters respectively in the constituencies its PAS candidates stood in, but this time around, it will receive duck eggs from the dismayed, dissatisfied and disappointed Nons.

Kian Ming (who studied, among other stuff, polling trends for his PhD) also reckons Malay support for PAS in GE14 even at best would still see a drop between 15% and 25% from its previous 2013 support.

Glory be, it sounds disastrous for the Moon Party when even its Heartland support will reduce. But Kian Ming still hopes for a mighty Malay tsunami in favour of Pakatan which can bury PAS for good in the post-tsumani debris. Perhaps Kian Ming believes the Mahathir factor may be a deciding point?

Meanwhile, across the Titiwangsa Range, in the PAS Heartland of Kelantan, there appears to be likely trouble too for Hadi Awang and his men.

Today MM Online tells us that the Singapore Times (ST) predicts hard times ahead for PAS in its Report: PAS may lose Kelantan in GE14 (extracts):

Singapore daily, the Straits Times (ST) noted that though the state capital Kota Baru enjoys good business, much of rural Kelantan, where agriculture is the mainstay, remains neglected. It quoted residents who said much of the rural local economy is propped up by remittances from Kelantanese working in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

“It used to be different here and we looked down on the other (states),” chicken supplier Mohd Sakri Husain, who lives in Renok Baru located 180km from Kota Baru, told ST.

“Now our economy is weak and young people have to leave Kelantan to look for work.”

ST reported estimates from polling houses that said at least 15 per cent of Kelantan voters are workers based outside the state.

Aside from abandoned wooden houses on stilts along Kelantan’s main trunk road and vacant new shop lots, ST reported that some infrastructure have yet to be rebuilt after the state’s worst floods in history in 2014 and many residents who lost their homes have yet to receive any assistance from the state government.

“I do not care very much about politics because I have to put food on the table. But I know which party I would not vote for,” restaurant helper Rozilawati Ibrahim told ST.

Tumpat MP Datuk Kamarudin Jaafar reportedly expressed concerns about three-cornered fights in Kelantan and also the rest of the country.

“Unless the Opposition can come to some agreement on seat-sharing and avoid three-cornered fights, PAS will likely lose Kelantan and the Opposition could face trouble in the rest of the country,” the PKR leader was quoted saying.

Dear dear dear considerate Kamarudin Jaafar, PKR MP as he might be, he obviously disagrees with his DAP colleague Kian Ming, and worries for PAS and still plugs for a PAS-PKR special (private) alliance.

But we mustn't forget Kamarudin Jaafar lompat-ed from PAS to PKR in 2015 wakakaka (together with the MP-ship for Tumpat gained under the PAS banner), and in 1999, lompat-ed from UMNO to PAS (but with nothing, wakakaka).

He certainly can give Ibrahim Ali and Muhd Muhd a fight for the No 2 Frog title, the No 1 Frog being Mahathir. And I reckon he is now in the correct party for his DNA, wakakaka.

Anyway, it seems in Kelantan we would not be wrong is we were to say as per the well-known political adage: "It's the economy Stupid".

But what is sad has been the ST report that in Kelantan '... infrastructure have yet to be rebuilt after the state’s worst floods in history in 2014 and many residents who lost their homes have yet to receive any assistance from the state government.'

Nik Abduh Nik Aziz has a lot to answer for that as he misused the good name of Allah swt to warn and threaten the already battered Kelantanese after the disastrous flooding.

I had previously written that Nik Abduh wrote in his Facebook page (and which was duly reported in a couple of Malaysian news portals) that,according to the son of allahyarham Nik Aziz, the 2014 floods in Kelantan were intended to remind Muslims to return to Allah’s path, and of the necessity in implementing the Islamic penal code in the state.

Yes, that 'quick-on-the-draw' and 'trigger-happy' Nik Abduh remarked: “The flood is a reminder to all Muslims to return to Allah’s ways and stay away from His wrath. It necessitates the perseverance of the Kelantan government to implement hudud laws.”

At that time, tens of thousands of suffering rakyat in Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis and Pahang, mainly Muslims, had had to be evacuated from their homes due to floods in various districts.

And Nik Abduh was moronic and insensitive enough at that distressful natural-disaster moment to provided us with his most halal opinion that Allah swt was very angry (wrathful) with Malaysians, which we naturally drew the conclusion as to be mainly Muslims in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Everyone would have thought the Muslims in Kelantan and Terengganu had/have been the most pious Muslims in support of Hadi Awang and PAS and their UUD355, thus Nik Abduh stupidly told them that “the flood is a reminder to all Muslims to return to Allah’s ways and stay away from His wrath".

And while Nik Abduh was frightening the already suffering Kelantanese, a Buddhist NGO Tzu Chi provided aid to flood victims in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Bintulu and even in Indonesia.

you have our backs 

hugs 

aid provided with due respect to orang tua 

with love 

Tzu Chi volunteers in Malaysia responded quickly and conducted disaster surveys in no time on 24 December. They start distributed food and water in the relief centers to make sure that the flood victims have food supplies.

On 27 December, a video conference was held between Taiwan Tzu Chi Foundation (headquarter of the foundation) and volunteers from local chapters in Malaysia (Penang, Kelantan, Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and Melaka) to draw up emergency relief aid plans.

Tzu Chi volunteers began the relief efforts with the distribution of food and essential supplies in the most badly hit Kota Baru and led the local residents in the cleanup work through cash-for-word program.

On 2 January, there were 1891 residents participated in cleanup operation in Kota baru city. The next day operation was even bigger. After receiving the cleaning tools, the residents board on 48 trucks to various destinations in Kota Baru, such as schools, mosques, recycling centres and markets, they work together with volunteers to remove the garbage and mud.

Tzu Chi volunteers prepared a wide variety of essential supplies and condolence cash in the compound of national primary and secondary schools, and later distributed the relief aid to the affected victims to meet their needs.

Many residents were moved to tears by the sign language demonstrated by the volunteers.

On 4 January in the hardest hit Temerloh, Pahang, the cash-for-work program was carried out to cleanup homes mainly in Temerloh and Kuala Krau. More than 1300 residents participated in the program while 2000 volunteers come to offer help. A total of 25 trucks and 17 tractors were used in the three days cleaning.

From 30 December to 13 January, a total of 16,670 victims had responded to the cash-for-work program.

Three long years after that Noah-type flooding it seems most of the destroyed infrastructure are yet to be restored by the PAS state government.

Well, I suppose PAS deserves to lose the state.