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foreplay? |
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 7 — Barisan Nasional (BN) will have a better chance at retaking Selangor following the proposed redelineation exercise by the Election Commission (EC), a Politweet report stated.
According to its simulation of the next state elections, BN could stand to win up to 11 more state seats due to the increase of risky Opposition seats. Most of these will be at the expense of PAS which is set to lose up to eight seats. [...]
“BN’s gains come at the expense of PKR and PAS, though PAS loses the most. PAS is expected to lose five to eight seats and see their number of high-risk seats increase.” [...]
“Out of the seven minimum seats PAS is expected to win, four are at-risk. A swing to BN in PAS seats can see PAS reduced from 15 seats in GE13 to three seats.
“This could give BN a potential total of 27 seats, needing only two more at-risk seats from PKR in order to win control of the state,” Politweet said.
Without redelineation, Politweet’s simulation predicted that PKR and DAP can control the state government together without relying on PAS, as it would win at least 30 seats, one more than the simple majority of 29 needed in the 56-seat legislative assembly.
However, redelineation will reduce their winnable combined seats to as few as 26. [...]
In its latest redelineation exercise, the EC is seeking to change the names of 12 parliamentary seats and 34 state constituencies nationwide ahead of the next general elections due in 2018. [...]
According to its simulation of the next state elections, BN could stand to win up to 11 more state seats due to the increase of risky Opposition seats. Most of these will be at the expense of PAS which is set to lose up to eight seats. [...]
“BN’s gains come at the expense of PKR and PAS, though PAS loses the most. PAS is expected to lose five to eight seats and see their number of high-risk seats increase.” [...]
“Out of the seven minimum seats PAS is expected to win, four are at-risk. A swing to BN in PAS seats can see PAS reduced from 15 seats in GE13 to three seats.
“This could give BN a potential total of 27 seats, needing only two more at-risk seats from PKR in order to win control of the state,” Politweet said.
Without redelineation, Politweet’s simulation predicted that PKR and DAP can control the state government together without relying on PAS, as it would win at least 30 seats, one more than the simple majority of 29 needed in the 56-seat legislative assembly.
However, redelineation will reduce their winnable combined seats to as few as 26. [...]
In its latest redelineation exercise, the EC is seeking to change the names of 12 parliamentary seats and 34 state constituencies nationwide ahead of the next general elections due in 2018. [...]
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Jibby, benarkah Bala said she liked you doing it to her behind? Sabar, Pak Haji, you'll soon find out wakakaka |
Apart from bloody brazen blatant gerrymandering to favour BN, the EC's deliberate change of seat names has been alleged as another nefarious tactic to confuse pro Pakatan voters.
The dedak-driven EC might as well change the name of Malaysia to Boleh-Land. But please bear in mind, this is EC V-2.0 which is a bulldozer version of the earlier EC - it now doesn't give a f**k what you think or has written in. Najib will get what he wants, no matter how crude the EC has been.
But in some ways there is sweet justice in BN sapu-ing most of PAS' seats. It can be considered as the divine will of Allah swt, not because His divine will favours BN but more because His divine will frowns upon an Islamic political party which has blasphemously misuses and abuses His Name - Inshallah.
Oh, what has not been mentioned is that, gerrymandering or not, PAS' hitherto Chinese support will switch over to BN, minus DAP support for the Islamic Party but add on MCA-Gerakan support for UMNO.
In a way the Chinese voters in those seats will say, "Corruption moe-maan thai (no sweat, we can deal with that), Fanaticism say-loe (drastic, we can't)", wakakaka.
The other weirdo omissions have been Amanah and Pribumi. Where will they stand in the re-delineation? And at whose expense?
It's true that both PKR and Anamah had both publicly voiced their consent to Pribumi taking over some of their seats, but to what extent?
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hope Pribumi will form a non-pribumi branch like PAS having a non-Muslim branch |
The above Politweet graph is thus an incomplete story of what will happen in Selangor in the next state election, but assuming for one instant, we accept Politweet best (or worst) case scenario, in the re-delineated 56-seat state, (to re-emphasize) we could have, plus and minuses here and there:
BN 26 ... ooops 23
DAP 15
PKR 14 (how many surrendered to Pribumi?)
PAS 10 (how many seized by Amanah?)
Yes, the total number of seats above exceed 56 but as I just mentioned, it is inclusive of plus and minuses here and there.
Theoretically PKR and DAP can form the state government again even without PAS's support, though equally theoretically BN needs only 3 6 seats to form the state government, which gnam gnam a 3 6-seat PAS may well oblige in the name of Malay-Unity (even after it has been sodomized)
Alternatively, PKR may abandon DAP to oblige UMNO, also in the name of Malay Unity.
Hmmm. so this is how the Kajang Satay was to have better positioned PKR nearer to Putrajaya, and believe it or not, TP bought that kerbau (many f**king satays) wholesale, while Anwar bought for himself a long-stay booking in Hotel Bamboo River.
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how about you Bung? aisheman, ai astronaut lah, limpeh chnea kay uar kay and f**k Pribumi wakakaka |
ReplyDeletewhat is the process to get these re-drawn constituencies approved? The EC has the power to just redraw and that is it, just like this? No need to pass through the state assemblies or Parliament? Wow EC so powerful?!?
I am not too sure of the legislation pertaining to delineation but I suspect it's under the 13th Schedule Part II of the Constitution where it only requires a simple majority in federal parliament (to with, 112 MPs voting for it) whereas prior to the alleged amendment by a previous (previous to AAB) PM, it required the 2/3 of federal parliament but since then, that 2/3 requirement has been reduced to a simple majority
DeleteThe number of Parliamentary and State constituencies Change is specified in the Constitution , so any change in the number requires a Constitutional amendment, hence 2/3 majority.
DeleteDelineation (changing electoral boundaries) has never required a 2/3 majority, since Merdeka.
The electoral boundaries are defined in the EC Act (not Constitution) hence only requires a simple majority to pass.
Much as you hate him, Don't just Hentam the PM previous to AAB just for the sake of it , lah...it damages your credibility.
The Mahathir Constitutional Amendment on this subject did change the constitutional guidelines on the size of Parliamentary and State constituencies, and , for sure, the EC has capitalised on this to the hilt, for BN-UMNO political purposes.
Why stay silent , giving a Free Pass to the current EC Boss , Najib , who is driving the current exercise ?
delineation matters. but what's more important is the voter turnout, the quality of candidate, and the people's ideological orientation. for the malays they may have to balance their ideological orientation and their political sentiment. it can swing either way. it would depend on the issues highlighted/fought, and how deep/strong is the racial/religious content. For example issue on frogs (amanah/kepercayaan) or jews (dap?) or wajib or halal or haram or blesphemy or fitnah or malay/muslim ummah or malay rights? issues on developement are considered secondary or collateral? so to speak..
ReplyDeletecorruption n governance r last, or not relevant at all? interesting.
Deletehy... corruption under fitnah.. kalau betul.. tangkap dan bicara la.. macam kes liwat yang kita pernah dengar tu.. macam tak tau pulak kau ni.. tsk tsk
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