Mini tsunamis of GE-13

Wakakaka!

When I posted Next MB of Kedah some 3 weeks ago, it was first picked up by Malaysia-Today and then Harakah. I suppose they had either thought I was on to something wakakaka or it was an amusing post.

But now my matey Ong Kian Ming, a political scientist, mentioned the same thing in a forum at Bangsar which was reported in Malaysiakini’s Pakatan will only win Putrajaya in 14th GE though his principal point was greeted not unexpectedly with anger by Anwar’s mindless moronic Myrmidons – How dare he! How dare MKINI reporter Aidila Razak even reported it? Wakakaka.

Some comments went as follows:

This is yet another piece of speculation-not based on solid research. Spin on, OKM!

His title is Political scientist ? hahaha..by inventing bull & cows stories for Malaysiakini to print...what a rubbish !

It’s the typical and very much lamentable Malaysian mentality of gross partisan (blind-as-bats) emotion, more so to accuse OKM of ‘spinning’, implying OKM (like kaytee wakakaka) is a BN-paid spinmeister and without knowing who OKM owes his political allegiance to.

I’m not going to needlessly defend him other than to say OKM shows his thoroughly professional character by predicting a GE-13 election result not favourable to Pakatan. Good on you OKM, keep the faith (of Truth).

Wait, maybe I’ll say something for OKM after all wakakaka ['tis my privilege as a blogger ;-).

I once asked OKM what he thought of Helen Ang (then writing for Malaysiakini) and her very anti DAP and anti Lim GE articles. OKM replied (words to the effect): “Helen Ang represents a very useful and welcomed voice in Malaysian socio-politics. We can always do with more of her.”

Now, that’s the sort of person OKM has been, is, and I am confident, will continue to be.

But let’s get back on track. OKM said while there won’t be a repeat of the 2008 tsunami in GE-13 and that BN will hang on to federal power, there will be mini localised tsunamis in Sabah, Sarawak and Johor.

Hah, Johor! Recall my post Johor's silent Tionghua revolution where I quoted Professor Abu Hassan Hasbullah of think-tank Zentrum Future Studies, that “… its end-of-year surveys have seen Johor Chinese catch up with and possibly overtake their northern kin in terms of backing PR. Opposition leaders in the state estimate that they won 55 per cent of Chinese votes in the last election but ….. support from the community has surged to close to 90 per cent.”

Obviously, from the Zentrum survey, we can say that the Johor Chinese have reached their political breaking point. They want to send BN out. Their decision would have been further fortified (concretized) by their perception of MCA seen in collaboration with the Perkasa’s white-pow f*-up fiasco.

If we remember an election truism in most democracies, voters generally vote a political party out of power rather than vote it into power. This translates into an incumbent political party or candidate losing, while the challenger becomes the winner by default. Thus, the Johor Chinese will focus on giving the BN a belting the latter long deserve.

And Pakatan will by default pick up BN’s lost seats – according to Zentrum, 15 federal and 30 state seats in Johor (compared to 1 and 6 respectively on 08 March 2008).

And all these seem to be supported by rumours, admittedly only rumours, of Hishamuddin Tun Hussein cabut-ing (scooting off) from Sembrong to Kota Tinggi. I hope he doesn't forget to take his keris along with him wakakaka.

But OKM qualified that the local tsunamis will only be possible if (a big IF) the correct (and highly prominent) candidates are nominated. He said: “Placing of candidates in strategic seats may swing sentiments from one party to the other, like move Mukhriz Mahathir from Jerlun and declare him as menteri besar candidate in Kedah.”

There you are – another opinion (more expert than kaytee's) on Mukhriz as the Next MB of Kedah, meaning there will be a possible tsunami but one favourable to UMNO instead, wakakaka. This has lately become even more probable with SAMM threatening to crush the PAS MB of Kedah for his inexplicable support of the draconian undemocratic and oppressive UUCA.

As I had written in same post: … given SAMM’s outrage and consequentially promised campaign against the current PAS MB, Azizan Abu Bakar, for his treacherous non-party line support of UUCA, and Chinese Kedahans’ dislike for same MB, there is a possibility that PAS may be voted out to an extent it loses majority rule in Kedah – for more, read Another Hasan Ali. And it looks more like an UMNO tsunami than just PAS being voted out to lose majority rule in Kedah.

OKM continued: "Make a prominent DAP leader with a prominent PAS leader contest in southern Johor, ripe for a big swing, and you can have a local tsunami. The same in Sabah and Sarawak."

I am thinking of Salahuddin Ayub of PAS, currently MP for Kubang Kerian who will probably be the next MB of Johor. He has been instructed by the 2 Pak Hajis to return to his birthplace for ‘higher duties’. DAP is no doubt backing PAS on this as it knows Johoreans are not ready yet, no, not even for a DAP Malay politician to head the state.

But I wonder who could be the prominent DAP leader?

Oh, BTW, I apologise on behalf of OKM for not mentioning anyone from PKR, including CJM wakakaka.

Finally, for those whining Myrmidons who screamed that Pakatan MUST win GE-13 (frighteningly, with whatever it takes - I suspect they must be thinking of their usual/only tactic in their heads, storming Putrajaya a la the Bastille wakakaka) because it represents Pakatan’s only chance (or would that be more correctly, Anwar’s only chance of being PM?), ...

... and that GE-14 will not only be too late but no longer do-able, here’s what OKM wrote (if you blind-as-bats morons had bothered to read):

"BN will not get their two-thirds, but will lose ground in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak, to win 55 to 63 percent of the seats. I posit a post-election scenario where Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is challenged by Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin as Najib won't be able to take back Selangor or win two-thirds of Parliament."

“... [if Muhyiddin takes over as prime minister, BN will be more "exclusive than inclusive"]. This and the worsening global economy will lead to 60 percent of the seats going to Pakatan in the 14th general election.”

"The 13th general election is a set-up for when BN would lose power," in other words, an important interim stage for Pakatan to eventually occupy Putrajaya after GE-14.

Of course several questions which beg to be answered, this time for PKR wakakaka, as follows:

(a) Will Anwar Ibrahim be still around by then, that is, in GE-14? We needn’t ask about Azmin Ali because if Anwar is not around, Azmin becomes a nobody wakakaka.

(b) If Nurul Izzah loses Lembah Pantai to Raja Nong Chik in GE-13 as predicted, what then of her political future?

(c) Will Nurul also contest a Penang state seat in GE-13, as recommended by RPK so as to be DCM Penang (alas, only DCM II by next state election), where her political survival will be more guaranteed?

(d) Alternatively, assuming Anwar Ibrahim is jailed if the AG wins the appeal against the ruling in Sodomy II, will she abandon Lembah Pantai and instead contest in her father's constituency of Permatang Pauh in GE-13 to continue to have a voice in federal Parliament?