Umno’s strategic masterstroke in Johor

Murray Hunter


Umno’s strategic masterstroke in Johor

The key to winning the election was the parties getting their people out to vote

Murray Hunter
Jul 12, 2026





More than 1.8 million Johorians (70% of eligible voters) turned out yesterday to vote in the Johor state election. The state election, called a year before the government’s term had been completed, and was criticized for being unnecessary. However, from the Barisan Nasional (BN) point of view it was a masterstroke in becoming the dominant force that controlled the state, eradicating its opposition, and building up an electoral momentum that the UMNO leadership hopes will cascade in a strong position ending with a federal election.

Before yesterday’s election the BN held 40 seats in a 56 seat state assembly. Yestderday, the BN lifted this number to 48 seats, leaving a small Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition left in the parliament.

Full credit must be given to the Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi, who lifted the BN vote from just under 600,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million in this election. This election had a 69.57% turnout to 54.9% back in 2022. Within the components of the BN, UMNO won 36 seats a gain of 3 seats, the MCA won 8 seats, a gain of 4 seats, and the MIC won 4 seats a gain of 1.

This compares to Pakatan Harapan, which mustered only 611,983 votes yesterday, almost double with the 367,525 votes they won in 2022. More voters actually turned out to vote for PH, but not at the same rate they voted for UMNO.

However, the damage was done with the seat tallies. The DAP lost 4 out of the 10 seats it held before the election. PKR and Amanah each held a seat equally to the tally in 2022. PH now holds only 8 seats in the new assembly.

The vote for was nominally the Perikatan Nasional (PN) fell right away in this election. The coalition mustered only 102,090 votes, down from 334,357 in 2022.

Given that PN has itself imploded, the PAS vote of 45,934 yesterday is less than have of what they had achieved in 2022. PAS also lost its only seat, now having no representation in the new assembly. Its very possible that the support PAS gave to UMNO turned its own voters against it.

Bersatu was hit very hard. Bersatu couldn’t even muster a quarter of the votes it received in 2022. One would have expected Bersatu to do a little better in Johor, being the home of its leader Muhyiddin Yassin. Based on yesterday’s figures, Bersatu is a spent force, perhaps suggesting the real reason PAS disassociated itself from the party. Bersatu lost the 2 seats it had in the last assembly.

The night was not good for the small parties either. MUDA lost its one seat in the assembly, garnering only 10,236 votes across 4 seats. Rafizi Ramli’s Party Bersama could only muster 28,816 votes across 15 seats. One can give some leeway to such a new party, which relied primarily on social media to campaign, although there was an active roadshow through the state during the campaign. It is sure that even though Rafizi is putting on a brave face from the result, there must be great concerns. Bersama didn’t make any inroads into what pundits thought would be the party’s support base, the non-Malay urban cohort. The Malaysian Indian People’s Party with only 8,196 votes just didn’t pick up the Indian vote which stayed where it did or just didn’t come out to vote.

As many predicted, the DAP saw the reality yesterday in losing 4 seats. This occurred while the MCA picked up 4 seats and now holds 8 seats in the new assembly. If the MCA can build upon this win, this could be a rebirth to the ailing party. The MCA will be looking ahead to Melaka where it could perform very well.

For the PKR, the result can be considered to have held the status quo. PKR still has one seat in the assembly, and actually gained double the votes it received in 2022, although across more seats. One fact is that for the last 12 years PKR vote has actually been declining. Saturday actually reversed this trend.

However, this doesn’t mean that PKR have anything to celebrate. The reality is that BN now has a new momentum that will be tested again twice in the year remaining. The Johor state election has polarized the voting landscape where minor parties got pushed out in the fight. There is no doubt that the major parties will be reflecting upon what happened and drastically changing strategies ready for Negeri Sembilan.


One of the keys to winning GE16 is voter turnout
Murray Hunter
·
22 Apr




Read full story