Can the Suez save Asian oil consumers after Houthis shut Bab al-Mandeb?

About 6 million barrels of crude per day that pass through the strait to Asia are now at risk, experts say.

By Caolán Magee

Published On 22 Jul 202622 Jul 2026

Two tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia have reversed course in the Red Sea after Yemen’s Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi ports, raising fears that disruptions to another of the world’s most important shipping routes could further restrict global oil supplies.

The vessels, the Rodos and Xin Long Yang, were carrying a combined 2.8 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia’s western port of Yanbu when they turned north after initially sailing towards Bab al-Mandeb, the strait that separates Yemen from the Horn of Africa, according to the shipping analytics firm Kpler.

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Their movements are the first visible sign that the Houthi threat is beginning to affect Saudi oil exports. They also expose a growing weakness in Riyadh’s efforts to protect its energy trade from the United States-Israel war on Iran.

Saudi Arabia had been able to partially bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz by transporting crude through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea. But with shipping through Bab al-Mandeb now also under threat, the alternative corridor that helped reduce the kingdom’s dependence on Hormuz faces its own security risks.

Asian refiners are now considering an exceptionally long diversion: sending oil northwest from Yanbu, through Egypt’s Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean before sailing around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope and on to Asia.

The route could keep some Saudi crude moving if Bab al-Mandeb becomes impassable. But it would add weeks to delivery times, substantially increase freight and fuel costs, and create logistical problems that could limit how much oil Saudi Arabia is able to export.

So can the Suez Canal offer a route that can carry oil quickly and affordably enough to prevent a deeper supply shock for Asian consumers while preventing oil prices from spiking to above $100 a barrel? Here’s what we know:

Two crucial waterways under pressure

The threat in the Red Sea comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is already severely disrupted by the conflict between Washington and Tehran.

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the narrow waterway, which connects Gulf producers with international markets. But traffic has fallen sharply as Iran restricts passage through the strait and the US blocks vessels travelling to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas.

Only three commodity vessels were recorded sailing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from four a day earlier, according to Kpler data. No very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers were sighted passing through the strait, leaving Gulf exporters with sharply different levels of exposure.

Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain depend almost entirely on Hormuz to export their oil or liquefied natural gas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also heavily reliant on the waterway but have pipelines connecting production centres to alternative terminals on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.

During the Strait of Hormuz’s essential closure for most of the past five months, Saudi Arabia redirected growing volumes of crude through Yanbu. The port exported about 4.1 million barrels per day in June, rerouting roughly 64 percent of the Saudi oil that would otherwise have left through Hormuz, according to Kpler.

But that workaround is now in doubt as the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on Monday, days after threatening to impose a “siege” on the kingdom in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport.

Kpler said 12 vessels loaded with crude from Yanbu remained in the Red Sea while another two had turned off their automatic identification system transponders near Bab al-Mandeb. Incoming empty tankers were also showing signs of hesitation.

“The movements are the first visible indication that the blockade threat is beginning to affect Saudi crude routing,” Kpler analysts Emmanuel Belostrino and Jashan Prema said.

“They also expose a growing vulnerability in Riyadh’s conflict response: The Red Sea corridor that allowed Saudi Arabia to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is now facing its own security risk.”

This is not the first time the Red Sea has been targeted by the Houthis. During their previous Red Sea campaign from 2023 to 2025 during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the Houthis used missiles, drones and small boats to attack commercial shipping that they said was linked to Israel. Four vessels were sunk, and nine seafarers were killed while traffic through Bab al-Mandeb fell to a record low.

Subsequent US attacks, according to the Yemen Data Project, killed at least 238 civilians from March 15 to May 6, 2025, including more than 68 people in a strike on a migrant detention centre in Saada and 84 civilians at the port of Ras Issa.

Analysts also said there is a risk the Houthis could escalate further by trying to attack Saudi oil refineries. Saudi Arabia’s western coast has nearly 1.9 million barrels per day of refining capacity and is an important supplier of diesel fuel to Europe. Any attacks on refineries could, therefore, further tighten fuel supplies in Europe while putting even more pressure on global oil prices.