Could internal pressures push Umno to team up with Perikatan? Analysts say unlikely

Could internal pressures push Umno to team up with Perikatan? Analysts say unlikely



Umno suffered heavy losses in the 2023 state elections, winning only 19 seats while losing 89, raising questions about its electoral strategy going forward. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa

Tuesday, 23 Dec 2025 7:00 AM MYT


KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 23 — Despite growing unease within Barisan Nasional (BN) over its cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and renewed grassroots pressure from component party MIC, political analysts say Umno is unlikely to form an electoral pact with Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the next general election.

However, International Islamic University Malaysia political science assistant professor Syaza Shukri said the most likely scenario heading into the next election would resemble the 2022 general election, where coalitions contest separately but leave room for post-election negotiations.

“For the next GE, I think it will be a repeat of 2022 in a way. BN has said it will contest on its own but coordinate to avoid multi-cornered fights,” she told Malay Mail.

Syaza said only a post-election outcome in which PN emerges as the largest bloc, overtaking PH, could realistically push Umno towards PN.


“If after everything, PN comes out on top, defeating PH to be the biggest bloc, I wouldn’t be surprised if Umno chooses to be in coalition with PN. It would be ‘easier’, no DAP, and the focus would be on the Malay majority,” she said.

Numbers don’t favour Umno

Syaza cautioned that such a coalition would likely be dominated not by Umno or Bersatu, but by PAS.


“If Umno and Bersatu work together, I feel it doesn’t really matter — both would still be second and third best behind PAS. PAS would be the biggest party and have a lot more say and sway,” she said, adding that PAS would likely allow Umno and Bersatu to front the government while exerting influence behind the scenes.

A similar arrangement briefly emerged after the 2020 Sheraton Move, when Umno and PN governed together under Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and later Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, before splitting ahead of GE15 in 2022.

The numbers in the Dewan Rakyat currently also highlight the challenge: Umno has 26 seats, while PAS and Bersatu hold 43 and 24 seats respectively.

Uncomfortable, but workable with PH

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun was more sceptical, saying the failure of BN and PN to work together in the last election underscored the difficulty of any future alliance.

“If such an alliance is workable, it would have materialised in the last GE,” he said, noting that both coalitions instead chose to compete head-on.

“The fundamental incompatibility lies in their essentially same cohort of chased-after voters,” Oh explained, pointing out that Umno, Bersatu and PAS are all competing for overlapping segments of the Malay electorate.

“Seat allocation would be extremely difficult. Umno is chasing religious Malays whom PAS already dominates, while Bersatu targets nationalistic Malays and tries to chip away at Umno’s moderate, business-focused base,” he added.

Oh also said Umno’s current working relationship with PH, including DAP, while uneasy, remains functional.

“Umno is at least enjoying a somewhat cordial working relationship with PH, both PKR and DAP,” he said, adding that he did not see BN moving towards PN and that, at most, BN would go it alone.



Syaza said only a post-election outcome in which PN emerges as the largest bloc, overtaking PH, could realistically push Umno towards PN. — Picture by Hari Anggara

Bersatu as an existential threat, not an ally

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan echoed that view, describing a BN–PN alignment as “unlikely” under present conditions.

“BN feels more comfortable working loosely with Pakatan Harapan,” he said, pointing to Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s recent statements that BN would contest using its own logo, without ruling out cooperation with other coalitions.

Azmi said resistance within Umno towards Bersatu remains strong, given the latter’s origins as a breakaway party formed to challenge Umno’s dominance.

“From the view of Umno members, Bersatu was established to destroy Umno,” he said, adding that while Umno may accept defectors from Bersatu, formal cooperation poses risks.

“The biggest risk for Umno is that Bersatu could overwhelm it. Bersatu’s strategy from day one was to attract dissatisfied Umno members and replace Umno as the main Malay party,” he said.

Azmi argued that Umno and BN still held certain advantages over their PN rivals, particularly in their ability to attract non-Malay voters — a limitation faced by both PAS and Bersatu.

“PAS has reached its maximum attraction among Malay voters. Bersatu too wants to expand beyond Malays. In this sense, Umno still has the upper hand,” he said.

Recent developments have added to speculation over BN’s future direction. MIC has openly discussed leaving BN and recently drew attention after its representative attended a Bersatu annual general meeting.

Umno’s relationship with DAP has also remained strained, with recurring disputes over issues such as the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC).

At the same time, Umno suffered heavy losses in the 2023 state elections, winning only 19 seats while losing 89, raising questions about its electoral strategy going forward.

Still, analysts agree that dissatisfaction alone is unlikely to push Umno into PN’s arms.

“BN would love to go back to the days where it governed alone, but that is no longer realistic,” Syaza said.

“At the end of the day, it’s a political calculation about getting to Putrajaya, whether with PH or PN. But for now, I don’t see Umno choosing PN unless circumstances force its hand,” she added.