Boris Johnson has survived a confidence vote but is wounded. How much longer can he last as British PM?
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson.(Reuters: Justin Tallis)
Boris Johnson might have survived a no-confidence motion in his own party room by 211 votes to 148, but history and logic tells us his prime ministership is in terminal decline.
Firstly, the numbers: 41 per cent of MPs in his own party, many of whom owe their seats to his comprehensive victory in the 2019 election, don't think he is a fit or proper person to lead their party and the country.
Those dissenting numbers are unlikely to improve with two key by-elections coming up and all the intense scrutiny of a privileges committee inquiry looking into whether Mr Johnson knowingly misled the parliament about lockdown parties in his office.
Secondly, recent history suggests even British Conservative prime ministers who survive no-confidence motions or leadership challenges don't tend to hang on for long afterwards.
In 1990, long-serving prime minister Margaret Thatcher announced she was resigning two days after she won a leadership contest against Michael Heseltine.
In 1995, John Major won a leadership contest over John Redwood, but was trounced at the next election by emerging Labour leader Tony Blair.
In 2018, Theresa May secured 63 per cent of her peers' votes in a no-confidence ballot. Within six months she announced she was resigning.
Boris Johnson might have survived a no-confidence motion in his own party room by 211 votes to 148, but history and logic tells us his prime ministership is in terminal decline.
Firstly, the numbers: 41 per cent of MPs in his own party, many of whom owe their seats to his comprehensive victory in the 2019 election, don't think he is a fit or proper person to lead their party and the country.
Those dissenting numbers are unlikely to improve with two key by-elections coming up and all the intense scrutiny of a privileges committee inquiry looking into whether Mr Johnson knowingly misled the parliament about lockdown parties in his office.
Secondly, recent history suggests even British Conservative prime ministers who survive no-confidence motions or leadership challenges don't tend to hang on for long afterwards.
In 1990, long-serving prime minister Margaret Thatcher announced she was resigning two days after she won a leadership contest against Michael Heseltine.
In 1995, John Major won a leadership contest over John Redwood, but was trounced at the next election by emerging Labour leader Tony Blair.
In 2018, Theresa May secured 63 per cent of her peers' votes in a no-confidence ballot. Within six months she announced she was resigning.
Theresa May survived a confidence vote in December 2018 but stood down as leader just six months later.(Reuters: Toby Melville)
Mr Johnson's vote this time around was even worse than Mrs May's.
Under current Conservative Party rules, Mr Johnson can't face another no-confidence vote for at least 12 months. But if a majority of the party's MPs decide they want him gone before then, they can always change the rules.
At the heart of the prime minister's precarious grip on power is the scandal of "partygate'', a series of parties in and around 10 Downing Street during lockdown.
There is white-hot anger amongst voters who followed strict COVID rules during the pandemic, only to find out that the prime minister and his staff were flouting the very rules they had introduced.
How do you explain to someone who could not say goodbye to a dying loved one in hospital, or could not hold a funeral for their friend or relative, at the same time when the prime minister and his colleagues were having booze-fuelled parties behind closed doors?
Mr Johnson's vote this time around was even worse than Mrs May's.
Under current Conservative Party rules, Mr Johnson can't face another no-confidence vote for at least 12 months. But if a majority of the party's MPs decide they want him gone before then, they can always change the rules.
At the heart of the prime minister's precarious grip on power is the scandal of "partygate'', a series of parties in and around 10 Downing Street during lockdown.
There is white-hot anger amongst voters who followed strict COVID rules during the pandemic, only to find out that the prime minister and his staff were flouting the very rules they had introduced.
How do you explain to someone who could not say goodbye to a dying loved one in hospital, or could not hold a funeral for their friend or relative, at the same time when the prime minister and his colleagues were having booze-fuelled parties behind closed doors?
A photo released in a government report showing Prime Minister Boris Johnson toasting during an event held in Downing Street in November 2020.(UK Cabinet Office)
After a police investigation, Mr Johnson was issued with a fixed penalty notice for attending his own birthday bash, becoming the first British prime minister to have been found to have broken the law while in office. And it's not just voters who are angry about it.
John Penrose, who has served as the Prime Minister's Anti-Corruption Champion since December 2017, resigned from that role on the morning of the no-confidence vote.
He said it was clear from Sue Gray's report into the lockdown parties, which found failures of leadership in the prime minister's office, that Mr Johnson had "breached a fundamental principle of the Ministerial Code – a clear resigning matter".
Jesse Norman, the former Financial Secretary to the Treasury and a long-term supporter of Mr Johnson, said the Gray report showed the prime minister had "presided over a culture of casual law-breaking at 10 Downing Street in relation to COVID".
"To describe yourself as 'vindicated' by the report is grotesque," Mr Norman wrote in a stinging open letter to the prime minister.
Johnson not out of the woods
Boris Johnson's great strength has always been his ability to win over swinging voters.
Twice he was elected as a Conservative Mayor of London in a Labour-leaning city.
His advocacy for Brexit in 2016 helped persuade voters to cast a ballot in favour of Britain leaving the European Union.
After a police investigation, Mr Johnson was issued with a fixed penalty notice for attending his own birthday bash, becoming the first British prime minister to have been found to have broken the law while in office. And it's not just voters who are angry about it.
John Penrose, who has served as the Prime Minister's Anti-Corruption Champion since December 2017, resigned from that role on the morning of the no-confidence vote.
He said it was clear from Sue Gray's report into the lockdown parties, which found failures of leadership in the prime minister's office, that Mr Johnson had "breached a fundamental principle of the Ministerial Code – a clear resigning matter".
Jesse Norman, the former Financial Secretary to the Treasury and a long-term supporter of Mr Johnson, said the Gray report showed the prime minister had "presided over a culture of casual law-breaking at 10 Downing Street in relation to COVID".
"To describe yourself as 'vindicated' by the report is grotesque," Mr Norman wrote in a stinging open letter to the prime minister.
Johnson not out of the woods
Boris Johnson's great strength has always been his ability to win over swinging voters.
Twice he was elected as a Conservative Mayor of London in a Labour-leaning city.
His advocacy for Brexit in 2016 helped persuade voters to cast a ballot in favour of Britain leaving the European Union.
Boris Johnson was front and centre of the Vote Leave campaign for Britain to leave the European Union.(Reuters: Darren Staples)
In 2019, he claimed an emphatic general election victory by winning seats in working class areas of the north that have historically voted Labour.
Now, a large proportion of his backbench is worried that he will drive them over a cliff in the next election, which is due to be held in the next two-and-a-half years.
There is mounting evidence the electorate is fed up with Mr Johnson's leadership.
On Friday, the prime minister was booed as he arrived with his wife Carrie at St Paul's Cathedral for a thanksgiving service for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee. It was a crowd that would not normally jeer a conservative leader.
An opinion poll published on the morning of the no-confidence vote by Opinium found that 59 per cent of surveyed voters thought that Tory MPs should remove their leader.
Meanwhile, pollsters are predicting a wipe-out for the Conservatives in a by-election in Wakefield next month.
The Tories face further challenges in a by-election for the seat of Tiverton and Honiton, which was vacated when the local Conservative MP was caught watching porn inside the House of Commons chamber.
It's now up to his colleagues whether Mr Johnson survives until the next election.
One of his strongest supporters, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, made the point before the no-confidence ballot that "14 million people voted for the prime minister (at the last election) — the highest number of people who voted for a Conservative prime minister since Margaret Thatcher".
The big question now is whether "partygate" has irrevocably eroded Mr Johnson's popularity with voters. If just 32 more Tory MPs change their minds in the coming months, he may not survive the year.
In 2019, he claimed an emphatic general election victory by winning seats in working class areas of the north that have historically voted Labour.
Now, a large proportion of his backbench is worried that he will drive them over a cliff in the next election, which is due to be held in the next two-and-a-half years.
There is mounting evidence the electorate is fed up with Mr Johnson's leadership.
On Friday, the prime minister was booed as he arrived with his wife Carrie at St Paul's Cathedral for a thanksgiving service for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee. It was a crowd that would not normally jeer a conservative leader.
An opinion poll published on the morning of the no-confidence vote by Opinium found that 59 per cent of surveyed voters thought that Tory MPs should remove their leader.
Meanwhile, pollsters are predicting a wipe-out for the Conservatives in a by-election in Wakefield next month.
The Tories face further challenges in a by-election for the seat of Tiverton and Honiton, which was vacated when the local Conservative MP was caught watching porn inside the House of Commons chamber.
It's now up to his colleagues whether Mr Johnson survives until the next election.
One of his strongest supporters, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, made the point before the no-confidence ballot that "14 million people voted for the prime minister (at the last election) — the highest number of people who voted for a Conservative prime minister since Margaret Thatcher".
The big question now is whether "partygate" has irrevocably eroded Mr Johnson's popularity with voters. If just 32 more Tory MPs change their minds in the coming months, he may not survive the year.
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