Saturday, August 02, 2008

Permatang Pauh - simplified mathematics

Anwar Ibrahim may have the threat of arrest hanging over his head but Malaysiakini informed us yesterday of Anwar to kick off by-election campaign on Sunday.

Originally Anwar made a virtually 100% commitment towards standing in Kulim (the legality of the PKR candidate as its parliamentary representative is to be decided by a court case soon, which may rule a re-election or by-election).

Earlier in his man man lai speech in Bandar Tun Razak he had also teased the crowd that he wanted to stand there. His PKR man, Khalid Ibrahim, could give way to his parliamentary ambition, but then, he must have assessed that BTR was too dangerous for his parliamentary future to be decided by the voters there who could have sobered up after nearly half a year since the anti-BN tsunamic wave.

Then Malaysiakini reported in
Cops wrap up sodomy probe, up to AG to act, referring to the investigation in which Anwar had been accused of being the perpetrator by the alleged sodomised victim. That could have tossed the dice for him!

On Thursday I posted Permatang Pauh - Anwar Ibrahim's strategy against arrest? in which I suggested that the Malaysiakini article
He may be arrested 'in next 48 hours' could be:

… the reason for Anwar’s abrupt decision to contest Permatang Pauh by getting his wife, Dr Wan Azizah, to resign, which officially she already has, rather abruptly too.

Anwar Ibrahim is a master of such brinksmanship manoeuvres. By putting himself as a candidate for a federal parliamentary by-election just before his possible arrest, he is ratcheting up the political stakes as well as his international profile.

PM AAB will be more embarrassed by the action of arresting a parliamentary candidate for a by-election than just a political party advisor.

My perception of Anwar seeking ‘sanctuary’ in a parliamentary candidature has been agreed to by sweetie Joceline Tan of Star Online today in her article Who is going to take on Anwar?, where she wrote:

Anwar’s bid to return to his old homeground was a strategic and pre-emptive move against what he saw as his imminent arrest. He has studied well Sun Tze’s Art of War and, as even his Umno opponents admitted, he has dictated the agenda.

True enough, Malaysiakini reported in PM: No one will stop him from running, a clear sign that AAB was reacting defensively though defiantly when he was quoted by Malaysiakini as stating:

The premier said due process of the country's laws would not discontinue when an individual wanted to contest in an election, adding that there had been no such precedent.

He said both the due process of the laws and the by-election would go on in accordance with their respective processes and could not blend in any way.

He also said that the due process of the laws did not ignore the right of a complainant to seek justice in a court of law, provided there was a case.

But let’s leave that aside. As Najib admitted in a Malaysiakini report that Permatang Pauh tough for BN, Anwar Ibrahim is predicted to roam home with a comfy majority.

Malaysiakini chart

Let’s look at above chart. In 2008 his wife Dr Azizah won 64% of the votes in Permatang Pauh, with a majority of over 13,000, where the total voters’ turnout amounted to just over 47,000.

Compare this to 2004 where she scrapped through with just a 590 votes majority. The total voters’ turnout then approximated 42,000.

In simplified assumptions, Dr Wan Azizah must have, in the 2008 election, scooped all 5,000 new voters as well as chipped away almost 4200 votes from Dr Pirdaus’ 2004 supporters

We may assume that the 5,000 new voters would be pro Pakatan as most young ones are. These 5,000 would undoubtedly remain loyal to PKR and vote in Anwar Ibrahim in the coming by-election.

According to Malaysiakini report of the analysis of the recent general election, the swing was a humongous 35% by Indians, 30% by Chinese and only 5% by Malays.

The ethnic compositions of registered voters in Permatang Pauh are (and assuming the voters turnout for the coming by-election will be the same as in March 2008, and uniform for all ethnic groups - using rounded figures):

70% Malays = total 32,900
24% Chinese = 11280
6% Indians = 2820

I am going to make some simplified guestimates to see where the swing of 4200 of Dr Pirdaus (or UMNO) supporters had been from.

Let’s say the traditional voting pattern for Permatang Pauh’s PKR versus BN-UMNO prior to 2008 had been respectively:

Malays 50-50% = 16450 votes for BN-UMNO
Chinese 25-75% = 8460 votes for BN-UMNO
Indians 0-100% = 2820 votes for BN-UMNO

Applying the 5%:30%:35% swing, these would translate into 822:2538:987 = 4347 which is pretty close to the loss of 4200 by Dr Pirdaus.

Again, for simplicity’s sake, let’s assume registered voters remain at 47,000, which means a simple majority to win is 23,501 votes.

Anwar will enjoy as a very minimum the following votes:

21737 core votes (based on 2004 figures for Dr Wan)
5000 new votes (the young ones of 2008 – generally pro PKR)

… making a winning total of 26737, even if the tsunamic swing were to pendulum back (which we know won’t be that drastic).

Allowing for some swing backs by the Chinese, Anwar Ibrahim will win, perhaps with a slightly reduced majority, say 28,900 total votes with a majority of over 10800 (as compared to Dr Wan’s 30,000 with a majority of 13,000)

… unless UMNO can persuade the voters to swing to an extent of around 5500 votes

I think the (Hindraf-ised) Indians will remain behind PKR or Pakatan, unless UMNO plays on the Anwar’s ‘temple bell’ issue.

Anwar's notorious 'temple bell' incident happened at Kampong Rawa, Penang. The story goes that on 27 March 1998, Muslims praying in a mosque adjacent to the Sri Raja Raja Madurai Veeran temple were pissed off by the loud temple bells during their Friday prayers.

Some ugly scenes occurred where hundreds of Hindus and Muslims clashed just because of the temple bells. From that initial clash, other Hindu temples and Muslim mosques were attacked, with 4 people hurt and nearly 200 rioters arrested.

Apparently, Anwar (then DPM) had threatened the Hindus to accept whatever he said or (the oft-quoted ultimatum) no temple bells would be sounded in Penang.

A couple of months ago, Anwar gave a totally version of what he had actually said, though my Penang (Indian) larng said 'Pundee Poorah' to Anwar's new 'outside-UMNO-and-no-longer-DPM' story.

I am not sure how the Indian voters in Permatang Pauh will remember or even bother to remember that 'old-UMNO-Anwar' incident, but they make up a hefty 2800 votes!

I am also speculating that the Chinese swing of 30% in March 2008, constituting the greatest loss of 2500 plus votes for UMNO (outside of the new voters) may, at most, be halved = 1250 votes back to BN.

I don’t think UMNO will benefit from playing on Anwar’s anti-Chinese Islamist background when he was an UMNO minister, as UMNO itself has been pretty terrible in these regards, especially last year – so for the Chinese voters, it'll be a case of ‘six of one, half a dozen of the other’!

Now, the Malays!

UMNO may play heavily on Anwar's refusal to take an oath on the Quran to deny he sodomised Saiful.

Undoubtedly Anwar will counter by saying that he has left it in the most capable hands of the syariah courts.

Look, if DAP’s Charles Santiago and the Lina Joy brigade have been conspicuous by their deafening silence on the legal impossibility of Saiful ever getting 4 male witnesses, do you think the Malays in Permatang Pauh will even bother to raise this?

Besides, the imams of PAS will rally around Anwar, giving all sorts of Islamic legal reasons or excuses why he needn't.

Then of course, UMNO may play the ketuanan Melayu card by telling the Malays that Anwar has abandoned the NEP … but f* themselves in the eyes of the Chinese and Indian voters ;-)

… so on so forth

Just a kaytee’s Saturday afternoon simplified take on Permatang Pauh’s coming campaign.


  1. Bonggok Ktemoc,

    Don't waste time do the stupid mathematic calculation la!
    If you are so well verse in the mathematics, your BeeEnd govt will not lose 2/3 of the majority in the Parlimen seats la! U can only talk nuts la!
    The more you write, the more readers will perceive you as naive & shallow!
    DSAI would like to contest in anywhere is his right as a citizen! He said he may contest in either Kulim or Bdr tun Razak but end up contest in Permatang Pauh, all this is call politic la!
    Don't be so naive that you expect your enemy to naked and show you everything right?! Bonggok!

  2. If Badawi vacate his Kelapa Batas seat now, do you really think he can win it back ? For that matter, does Badawi himself think he can win back?
    On the same token, if KJ vacate his Rembau seat, do you think he will arrogantly think he can win it back , or maybe he should contest in Kelantan to show what he think that the Malays still support Umno ?
    Let Anwar contest and if he wins, it will be good as he can keep a corrupted Govt in check. Dont we all want lower petrol prices? Dont we all want to buy competitive-priced submarines? Dont we all want open tenders on highways and IPPs so that we dont have to pay ridiculous toll charges and electric tariffs? All we all happy with all these "garvy trains" that drain away our country resources and take away our hard earned money (via income taxes, sales tax , APs etc)?
    Electing Anwar to Parliament gives us a little glimpse of hope that BN can be wiped out to stop the "rape" of this country. Unless one is involved together with BN in the "rape" and scooping off the "gravy trains" too.

  3. Thanks ktemoc for coming up with the analysis. With your tiny brain at work, I have to accept that this is the best you can come up with..

    Anyhow, I am also sure that PR and Anwar's think tank will consider these numbers that you put forth for strategic and planning purpose for the coming by-election..thanks for doing the donkey job..

    Btw, continue with all those fallacies and dont stop spinning, doc! We, rakyat the supporters of PR, need check and see.

  4. Your analysis and calculations shows the shallowness and lack of grey matter in your head. Don't even hide behind the simplification of your analysis. It did't work. OK

  5. Look in da mirror, KT, and check da colour of ur tongue! Stay under ur tempurung with your Bonton Nakal frens!

  6. ;-) charming fellas, these PKR anwaristas. With you guys in power, democracy (like katak-isation) and free speech (like what you do here) will be guaranteed - wakakaka.

  7. aiyoyo .. what talking you? putar here, putar there .. analyse here and there, in the end ... the fact remain the same. rakyat suffering and wants the gomen to fly kite loh. simple as that, understand? no need so canggih one ... we all layman only. only want to survive and have basic things taken care off.

  8. Stop playing temple bell issue.We have all forgotten that and not even bothered.
    All we want to see is BN goverment to fall at any cost.There have there too long and think the rakyat are stupid.
    What's happening to Altantuya and Najib?We really don't care about the sexuality of an individual anymore all we need to see is his or her capability in leading the country fairly.
    Umno are the biggest shit stirer when come to racial sentiment.
    They are going down in Permatang Pauh.

  9. Hey guys

    You all know politics in Malaysia requires a lot of money. So where did Anwar get all these monies to get so many MP seats? Well in 1998, 4 undercover CIAs posing as Syrian businessmen, brought him RM1billion. Fancy that? Of course a favour in return for betraying his country by legalising short selling of currency and stocks in 1997 so they could "bankrucpt" Malaysia.

    What a despicable politician of the highest order!!!!

  10. KT

    Interesting analysis, and in the overall I would agree with it. However I have some additional comments.

    1. As we know the dynamics of a by-election is very different from the GE due to intense focus of the players involved. BN as usual will bring on the big guns and dangle their carrots. One interesting aspect that I am looking is to observe the behaviour of PR and in particular Lim Guan Eng. In the past PR and DAP had accused the tactics of BN in promising various infrastructure projects and other "gifts" as political bribery. As such it would be interesting to see if PR /LGE would resort to the same tactics this time.

    2. The selection of canditate would be of some importance. If the candidate is someone local and with clean record and credibility, then the scenario might change dramatically. The big swing in 2008was due to internal UMNO problems (due to the selection of an outsider). As such a local candidate would able to recapture the lost votes to a significant degree.

    3. Strategy employed would be key. I think BN will focus on the Malays would constituted the biggest swing from 2004 as well as being the majority ethnic group by far.For sure BN will use Anwar's anti-NEP stance as a killing blow against him. This will be useful as the current sentiment among the low income and middle-class Malays is one of deep concern on the perceived erosion of Malay rights and political power post March 8. Another weapon will be DSAI's sodomy allegation. We can expect to see explosive expose from Saiful and also from Ezam. As for the Chinese I agree some votes will swing back to BN. Indians too have become rather disenchanted with PR and Anwar and the sentiment in Penang especially has turned against PR. BN will gain some votes from the former PR indian voters while other Indians would rather not vote than voting for PR.

    4. I also expect fuel price reduction to happen before the by-election.

    5. The support of PAS is critical. No doubt DAP will back DSAI to the hilt. But I very much doubt PAS' full commitment. I know some PAS folks will work against DSAI.

  11. pls la....are you happy with your life or you being paid to scrible something that is nonsence?

  12. did u fail maths?
    all maths is erm..simplified by definition...
    and what u r doing isn't maths but arithmetic...
    dun crash the plane.

  13. BobbyNZ,

    What's the source of your information. I'd like to know how reliable is it.

  14. BobbyNZ,

    What's the source of your information. I'd like to know how reliable is it.

  15. I've not read a more well-thought analysis than this for a long time now. The bottom line is Anwar will still win but irony has always play a major role in his life, so who knows?

    I'm with the Opposition but unlike so many of the commentators here, I'll NOT support an Opposition with Anwar at all costs.

    "Anwar WILL betray the non-Malays after he's in power" and I hope the pro-Anwar non-Malays here will all remember this line when he turns his back on them claiming he never promised them anything.

    The people deserve the kind of PM they get so when the time comes, I hope they will go kick their own ass.

  16. Hi KT

    I'll be campaigning lah , my home state . Don't wanna disclose too much yet at this moment .Those blokes at MT are already branding me an UMNO cybertrooper hahaha wawawa . And some guys in Loone's are calling me Monsterball's clone , Hahaha

    What a bunch of PKR anwaristas , Anwar's cultist .

    My take again ,

    Anwar will still win but with less majority than Wan Azizah .

    Thats all I can disclose at this moment , the more you analyse , the more data and info they can get .They have their cybertroopers looking into all our analysis and best is talk rubbish right now .

    Will update this BLOG as time goes by .

  17. The title of your post should be: "Permatang Pauh - a simpleton's arithmetic."

  18. jack, maybe I am a simpleton at arithmetic but at least I am not a simpleton for the reformasi bullshit - wakakaka

  19. You are a simpleton and an unsuccessful hoodwinker when it comes to what reformasi really stands for, and this is no laughing matter, especially for people who live in Malaysia.

  20. Jack

    What really reformasi stands for ? I know is to get DSAI become the next PM so that he could continue where he left the govt 10 years ago. As I remember DSAI displayed no an aota of any reformist ideas or principles that he speaks so passionately about now, when he was the DPM. In fact he was an even bigger abuser of power and an ultra. Some of the kids nowadays might not remember it by I do the dirty deeds that Anwar did like his devious efforts to close down vernacular schools, changing the vernacular schools' curriculum to make them less competive, Bahasa Baku, numerous contract awards to his cronies, the Kg Rawa temple bell issue,many others,etc.

    Shan :

    You might have forgiven DSAI for his "temple bells" comments but many Indians have not. FYI, HINDRAF is calling the Indians in Permatang Pauh NOT to vote for DSAI.

  21. Killer: that was the past, in the previous century and millenium. We are talking about NOW: the new millenium, and the year 2008. Reform must first come from within, and this is what Anwar has done, to become someone who is very different from what he was. Several years of imprisonment have changed him considerably. If Anwar has not reformed himself, would you think people would be fooled by him? Don't be like KTemoc: a dinosaur who lives in the past, and cannot understand that the world, and Malaysia, have changed.

  22. Right now, the biggest elephant in the room is the very major escalation in the cost of living.

    The causes are many, but no thanks to the 70% petrol price increase. Seberang Jaya is to a large extent majority urban Malay-working class electorate, and people here have been hit hard. There will be an additional swing in votes, not really pro-Anwar, but a protest against BN. I don't care how many big guns BN sends here, they don't have an answer. Even a petrol price reduction, while welcome, will be seen as a political ploy.

    There may be a very minor Chinese swing back towards BN, but the proverbial "regret"of the Penang Chinese for voting Opposition doesn't exist to any significant extent that I can detect. If anything, BN's post-election behaviour towards Penang elicits disgust among Penang Chinese.

    The Indians are pressuring PR to deliver on their expectations, but don't treat that as support for BN. There's no comfort to be had in that direction.

    Sorry Ktemoc, and also UMNO-ristas - short of Anwar suffering a fatal stroke, all options suck.

  23. Sorry, I meant 70 sen, not 70% - typo erro

  24. I believe I speak Tamil (and I am Penang larng, and Indian too) but Ive never heard anyone say "Pundee Poorah". KT, you could be referring to Pundeh, Podah.

  25. Dear Observer

    DSAI has changed ? Really ? How do we determine he has really changed and not making promises that just to con us into voting him to be the next PM ? DSAI is not a kid who on his formative years but someone who will be 61 in a matter of days. From 1998 up to know he has not given up his quest to be the PM.

    I am not convinced that he has changed based on HIS DEEDS and NOT WORDS. If you examine his actions since 1998, he has NOT changed at all. His evasive and highly questionable actions in regarding the Saiful Sodomy case is illustratve of his shady, conniving and manipulative behaviour.

    I think we going to hear some very revealing exposure about him from Ezam and Saiful in the coming by-election.

    I feel sorry for the Malaysians we are hoping that DSAI will deliver them a better Malaysia. If DSAI becomes the PM of Malaysia, it will signal the beginning of the end of the nation.

  26. kittykat46

    I can only disgree with your comments. This is an area with Malay majority and most of the Malays are relatively educated and well informed.

    You see many Malays have voted against BN/UMNO in the 12GE due to such bread and butter issue. But they immediately regretted it due to the perceived erosion of the Malay rights and political power. Read the Malay blogs and papers, there are real concerns on this among the Malay community. If BN could exploit this against DSAI then they could reverse a significant % of the votes.

    A lot would depend on how the sodomy allegation is handled and DSAI's stance against NEP exploited. I expect Ezam to turn up and Saiful to come up with even more explosive allegations. Expect BN's ceramahs to be packed this time.

    As for the Chinese, I concur that there could be a minor swing for BN but what likely to happen is that many people who voted for PR will not turn up. He hasn't really done anything to enhance his image.

    As for the Indians, HINDRAF will persuade the Indians to boycott the by-election thus depriving DSAI further votes.

    However, I still think DSAI will win but with significant reduction of majority. In fact this would be a significant blow for his reputation.

    However there is a small chance that BN could defeat him. That would depend on the candidate and how smart are their election strategies employed. Since we are dealing with Malay majority seat, the right strategy could emotionally appeal to the people. Furthermore DSAI's oft repeated and admired multi-racial card will be ineffective as well. And if the govt reduces the petrol price, DSAI will be left with precious little to promise.

  27. Read the latest Merdeka Centre polling? Pak Lah has a 26% approval rating. Based on my chit-chat with folks in Seberang Jaya, that's about spot on here as well.

    Most ordinary urban folks - regardless of race - whom I talk to are disgusted with Barisan Nasional.

    The tide has actually swung AGAINST UMNO and BN since March 8, especially in urban areas.

    Again, its not necessarily a pro-Anwar sentiment, more a disappointment with the government.

    Yeah, I know its hard for Ktemoc and also UMNO-acolytes to swallow, but that's the bitter truth.

  28. So, killer, in spite of your strictures about Anwar's past, you are perfectly willing to faithfully listen to what a racist UMNO member such as Ezam Mohd Nor has to say? Didn't Ezam leave Keadilan partly because of his belief that his bullshit ideas on ketuanan Melayu was under threat if the party led by Anwar took over the government? In spite of this, you still trust Ezam and find him more believable than Anwar??

    Yes, I agree with kittykat: it's more an anti-BN swing than a pro-Anwar swing that is at work here. Looking at the face of Ezam and what he stands for, and Anwar and what he wants to do for Malaysia, most people, except for killer and KTemoc, know where they stand or should stand.

  29. My prediction:

    Anwar will win with a bigger majority. (Sorry Ktemoc ;) )

    Why? Because the current situation with inflation is hurting people and making them more and more angry.

    Phua Kai Lit

  30. kittykat

    I would suggest that you re-check your numbers on Pak Lah's approval rating. Obvious you have been reading Malaysiakini's highly manipulative and shamefully deceiveful report. Perhaps you should check on Merdeka Centre's website directly and see the results.

    According to the downloaded report, 7% were very satisfied while 35% were somewhat satisfied which adds up to 42%. Bearing in mind that this is just after the oil-price hike, the result is no big surprise.

    In any case, let's wait and see during the by-election to see if your prediction is rooted in reality or a just a wishful thinking of a PR-die hard.

    While I admire your ameteur "polling skills" but I would very much doubt such action, even though very enterprising, would have any value at all in terms of statistical methodologies.

    Funny, I am in Penang too but I simply do not seems to get such vibes from the folks of Permatang Pauh as you did.

  31. observer

    That Ezam is a racist is irrelevent here as he is not the one who is asking us to be the next PM. If he is then I might look at his past records and evaluate. Funnily you opinion of Ezam is based on a PKR leader which hardly come as a shocker.

  32. Killer: I take it that you have no objections to Abdullah Badawi as your PM, and that you believe that he should not be subjected to the same level of scrutiny that you think should be subjected to Anwar? If that is the case, that settles the argument as far as I am concerned.

    The view that Ezam is a racist is not limited to Khalid Jaafar or the PKR, but has also been expressed by Harris Ibrahim, amongst many others. That Ezam is a racist is not irrelevant, as his views on race are representative of the party that he is now a member of. Incidentally, Ezam's party is also Abdullah Badawi's party, which I take it, you support. If that is the case, there is, again, no point in arguing further.

  33. I think I will place my bet on Anwar getting an even bigger majority than Azizah. Any bookmakers around?

  34. old timer there will be many willing to take bets with you . Matter of fact the more the bets the better it is . We welcome it .Are you taking Anwar to win ? and what sort of handicap are you giving ? 10000 votes ? whats the bet ?

    This is one of the issues that can swing the votes .

  35. I am missing in action here , wow all the exchanges between killer and kittykat , observer . looks like its getting hot !! real hot . Real interesting this dialogue as long as its sensible and free of name calling and vulgarities .

  36. chaptokam,

    Don't you know what is a "bookmaker"?

    Evidently you don't know. It'd be hard for Old Timer to response to you if your question betrays a lack of understanding of that term.

  37. Si Anwar penakut ni last2 kembali ke bawah ketiak isteri. Dulu cakap nak bertanding sana lah sini lah, last2 sekali dekat situ jugak. Macam takut gak sikit2 kot tu..