Thursday, July 31, 2008

Permatang Pauh - Anwar Ibrahim's strategy against arrest?

Anwar Ibrahim sprung a surprise which in reality wasn’t quite a surprise.

According to Malaysiakini latest news article, Anwar to contest Permatang Pauh, he has returned full circle to where he had started his political career as a prize recruit for UMNO.

In my post just 10 days after the last general election, Where will Anwar Ibrahim stand for Parliament? I averred that Khalid Ibrahim would be the one likely to surrender his seat to him because Khalid would have a full time job as MB of Selangor.

I mentioned that Anwar Ibrahim could ride home easily on the ‘halo’ effect of the Pakatan’s tsunamic win, where goodwill towards the non-BN parties [how about that for a change in the use of that terrible word ‘non’ ;-) ] was still very strong.

However, I did mention that he might be considered too precious an asset to the Pakatan to test the voters in Bandar Tun Razak, because we could be sure the BN would pour every resource and propaganda gimmick, including the kitchen sink, into the by-election.

Yes, what if the BN succeeds? It would be a mortal demoralizing blow to the PKR-DAP-PAS bloc, something they may not wish to incur, and hence not tempt the possibility by standing him there.

Indeed, subsequently (just not too long ago) Khalid Ibrahim mentioned that Bandar Tun Razak would be the most dangerous place for his de facto leader to attempt in a by-election.

In that earlier (post general election) post I also raised the (2nd) possibility of Permatang Pauh, where Dr Wan Azizah roamed home with a staggering 13,000+ majority (as compared to her slim 2004's 500+ majority). The ethnic composition would be, for Anwar, a comforting 67.6% Malay, 26.3% Chinese and about 6% Indians.

… with Balik Pulau as a 3rd choice with more or less the same ethnic mix.

Since then Anwar had toyed with a few seats for his re-entry into parliament, including Makcik’s as well as Khalid’s seat again, and recently, Kulim where he gave the impression he was 100% sure he would contest there, should an election be ordered following a court challenge.

Why then this sudden almost overnight abrupt change, from Kulim to Permatang Pauh?

He gave the reason as a counter to the possibility of a (deliberately) delayed court decision over the Kulim case to frustrate him.

But kaytee thinks, really, how long can the court delay the decision when afterall Anwar himself hasn’t seen any urgent need to get himself into parliament (I had put that reason as Anwar’s hope to rejoin UMNO and recontest for parliament as an UMNO candidate rather than as a PKR member).


Besides,it's not as if he just thought of that (delaying) possibility after annoucing his intention to contest in Kulim!

Then I read another Malaysiakini article He may be arrested 'in next 48 hours' following the Home Affairs Minister’s statement that the police investigation into the alleged sodomy allegations has concluded – see Malaysiakini article Cops wrap up sodomy probe, up to AG to act

… and believe that could be the reason for Anwar’s abrupt decision to contest Permatang Pauh by getting his wife, Dr Wan Azizah, to resign, which officially she already has, rather abruptly too.

Anwar Ibrahim is a master of such brinksmanship manoeuvres. By putting himself as a candidate for a federal parliamentary by-election just before his possible arrest, he is ratcheting up the political stakes as well as his international profile.

PM AAB will be more embarrassed by the action of arresting a parliamentary candidate for a by-election than just a political party advisor.


The international press and politicians, especially those from America will feel more compelled to protest than they would if Anwar has just remained as an advisor to PKR or even de facto leader of the Pakatan.

There is more political pressure to bear on AAB if the ‘victim’ is a political candidate for a by-election. The accusations will be that AAB is directly and actively preventing Anwar's return to parliament.


The already popular conspiracy theory of Anwar being fixed by the BN will be even more strengthened.

34 comments:

  1. Having got your 1st prediction wrong, you won't quit while still behind will you?

    This is politics, not tiddlywinks. So, you go for the certain over the uncertain.

    In Permatang Pauh, DSIA is King. So, you go for the jugular. The wife was after all only holding the fort.

    And don't be surprised when the wife eventually takes Kulim!!

    Sodo Mee arrest can come or not. But life goes on. That's how good managers plan and work.
    http://donplaypuks.blogspot.com

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  2. KT, it isn't just you. I, too, saw the same horizon as you did. In fact, I have been observing DSAI since the day the sodomy matter came up till now.

    I must admit, DSAI is good. Along the way, I have learn a few things from him myself. He is always one step ahead of his opponent.

    If, one day, if he actually becomes the PM, and that he manage to walk the absolute straight path of politics, I would be happy to embrace him as my PM. Otherwise ........

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  3. my god

    how old are you kt?

    your theory has all the ingredients for hollywood.

    it lacks soul.

    DSAI choice was definitely permatang pauh from the start. kulim n BTR was just back up plan.

    if you have an infection, use the best antibiotics first. second line is just backup.

    remember, he always talks about elements of surprise. he didnt make his strategy look too obvious, he never mentioned permatang pauh, not even once.but in the end he chooses that. a great mastermind never do things impulsvely. everythg is carefully planned to the detail.

    he already has his soldiers ready in permatang pauh brader.it is the BN side who is now going to be scrambling up and down preparing for an offense.he already has a strategy laid and his soldiers to move.he is such a great strategist, fast and swift.

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  4. No offense KT, but if you were a political analyst or fortune teller, your clients would be on the losing side.

    Almost all of your Anwarphobic anti-Keadilan predictions have failed to materialize... Anwar's not contesting in Bandar Tun Razak, the weakest link in Pakatan is actually PAS (thank god they've said no to UMNO's offers) not KeADILan like you've been always ranting. And it appears Anwar has no intention of returning to UMNO.

    Maybe you can "angkat bakul", and claim this failure of your predictions & analysis to come true is because Anwar has been reading your site. After all, every good soothsayer/bullshitter includes a disclaimer in their predictions... just in case.

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  5. Why worry he will be MP jail or no jail PM jail or no jail. We the people are determine and no bully will change the will of the people. damn stupid UMNO, they are beginning to realise that this country belongs to all of us. Let Bababi make his threats , we will not surrender our country to corruption again. They have to go.
    Oh people let us unite against this wicked and corrupt gomen. This party which holds itself above nation country and its laws.
    They gather our wealth unto themselves and spoiled their children and concubines rotten at our expense. They mock us when they bribe our old folk with biscuits cigarettes padi beras and cheap tasteless clothing. Shhhhhit! Enough is enough.
    Are they going to brutalise us like the Japanese did? Put nothing pass them but we will stand up for nation and country. Ship them off to Batu Singapore.

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  6. I think we have been getting a bit prejudicial about KT's views (he can thank himself for being so partisan in th first place) but there is some merit in his speculation here.

    imagine all the world's news media writing "... yesterday Mr Anwar Ibrahim, the PKR candidate for Permatang Pauh and potential PM-in-waiting, was arrested by the ruling the Police of the government of Ahmad Abdullah's ruling party UMNO ..."

    "In the early hours of the morning yesterday, the de facto head of the PKR party and candidate for the Permatang Pauh consitutency by-election, was arrested on orders of the Police under the government of the UMNO ruling party ..."

    Even Mugabe dared not arrest Tsvangirai - the head of the Opposition party MDC - for fear of exceeding the bounds human tolerance and inviting even greater global condemnation.

    The repetitive statements of AAB's rpressive and anti-democratic measures against a legitimate opponent, in the news media globally, will cast UMNO and Malaysia in a most dreadful ligh we shall never recover from.

    For then when the news media makes this a Breaking News and headlines, Malaysia's image and reputation will be down the drain. It will be viewed as another Zimbabwe. With lingering and continuing adverse effects as heads of States and influential global statemen keep raising this issue in public especially in the news media calling for Anwar's release.

    Try visualising. It helps to see the future.

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  7. Talk about "branding" or "re-branding"!

    When and if the Government arrest Anwar, there goes Malaysia's image and standing in the world.

    Malaysia? Oh .. that typical Asian country runned by a tin-pot dictatorship?

    Are you Malaysian? Oh .. you poor pitiful wretched chap. I am so sorry you have such an oppressive country. No freedom. No justice. A dictatorship. All the wealth of the country in a few lowlife politician's hands. I am really so sorry for you ..

    Malaysia boleh? We are going to be a joke if the Hon. Mr Abdullah Badawi does not do the right thing by showing a firm hand and let justice and fairplay prevail.

    The ball is in your court Sir. The decision you make on this issue will an epochal one.

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  8. Ahhh ... perhaps its was all a sandiwara.

    Mr AAB did not have intention to arrest Mr Anwar. Only just to make him squirm. See how he likes it. Afterall, Mr Anwar was quite merciless in piling pressure on Mr Abdullah when he was having so pressures and stress from so many quarters - within UMNO challenging him, Mr Mahathir's irritating and damaging snapping-at-the-heel demand for AAB to resign, public anger at the fuel price increases, etc...

    Maybe its just to make a point - that - its all in the day of politics. Mr Adullah and his men is just as capable of making life difficult for Mr Anwar as he did to mr Abdullah.

    Perhaps he will be a bit more gentlemanly next time.

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  9. Agree on your theory that his candidacy is to increase international pressure against any future arrest

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  10. KT

    I think we give DSAI too much credit for political strategy. He is not half smart as many people think if you observe his actions and statements.

    Permatang Tinggi is the last resort choice for him. Kulim, Taiping and Bandar Tun Razak are more preferable options.

    He was never in a hurry to contest in the by-election as he was rather busy trying to cajore/ bribe/ threatnen some BN reps to do a "katak".

    However, he realised he needed to get back into the parliament when his efforts failed. The announcement that he is going to compete is an indication that he has failed in his quest and left with no other option.

    Then when it came to contest he must have realised that not many people are willing to give up their places (unlike what they they DSAI before the GE). Even Khalid Ibrahim indirectly indicated his reluctance by claiming that Bandar Tun Razak is the most difficult place for DSAI (I can easily think of many other places). That is why he was focusing on contesting in places where he does not need to ask any PR MP to relinquish their seat (as they won't do it anyway).

    Now that the sodomy charge is coming he has no choice but to ask his loyal wife to "sacrifice" since no one else would. For Wan Azizah this is a disgraceful act of putting DSAI's interest above rakayt who voted for her.

    I think this intention to contets in by-election would certainly pre-empt any charges. But I don't think Pak Lah going to stop the charging since DSAI bound to exploit his arrest no matter what situation he is in. In fact he already claimed that the charge if a political conspiracy and meant to stop him from being the next PM. So there is nothing new if he is going to be charged now. After all it would not stop him from contesting. But imagine what BN would do in the by-election if he contests after getting charged for sodomy....!!

    I think DSAI made a big blunder here and he will be taking a huge risk for his political career.

    - Killer

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  11. "For Wan Azizah this is a disgraceful act of putting DSAI's interest above rakayt who voted for her"

    Oh..wow...

    I have a number of relatives who live in the Permatang Pauh constituency, and my work takes me regularly to Seberang Jaya, which is the urban portion of the constituency, with a heavy Chinese population. Believe me, most people here would love to have Anwar as their MP.

    I think both the Seberang Jaya Gerakan and MCA branches have practically "tutup kedai", most members either simply don't bother anymore or joined PKR, so they are practically useless as far as helping UMNO here.
    I wonder who UMNO will put up to contest the seat....I'm not really into blood sports, you know..the ones where the fox corners the rabbit...

    Needless to say, Kak Wan is very popular here. She's seen as a humble, approachable person, who's family has been heavily wronged by those in power.

    Personally, I prefer Kak Wan to be the Opposition leader.

    Anwar tends to be a very polarising character - he has many very loyal supporters, and there are also many who detest him (don't we know....kakakakakakak)

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  12. to brighteyes,

    the weakest link in Pakatan is PAS?

    Elaborate. Please.

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  13. My dear friend Kaytee

    You saw what others didn’t see , yes you are absolutely right .
    By saying so , I have to substantiate what I say . Originally DSAI was eyeing Kulim , so to speak , however he was aware that he was to be arrested very soon , went to to extent asking the govt not to charge him as there was no basis for them to do so , referring to the leaked medical note . When word came that he was about to be arrested or arrest was imminent , the next course of action was to get Wan Azizah to resign so that he could contest in her seat in Permatang Pauh . That was a very clever move , if the police were to arrest him now , he would up the temperature by claiming there’s a political conspiracy to prevent him from becoming the de facto leader . This is at the expense of Wan Azizah , how sad she had to sacrifice her position just to prevent DSAI from being arrested . This is indeed a very clever move , but whether it translates into his agenda or objectives is still left to be seen .
    But my take on the whole situation is I firmly believe they would NOT arrest DSAI now , not at this moment . This would confirm the political conspiracy theory and all DSAI needs to win is to campaign on this slogan . If he loses that’s another issue . I’m sure that EC would fix the by election after September 16th as they can call a by election within two months , till the end of September . If no kataks jumps or Anwar provokes more issues to destabilize the govt , there’s a possibility they might quietly forget the sodomy case . However should that not be the case , then the mighty arm of the law will reveal its face .

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  14. Btw KT ,

    Permatang Pauh would be the obvious choice , I hate to see Dynasties being formed in Parliament where husbands , wives daughters and sons are all in Parliament as if Malaysia is lack of capable people to be Parliamentarians . If the rakyat votes for that someone who vacates his/her seat for obvious reasons , I would have no objection , however should that person after vacating decides to hip hop to another seat to contest like for eg Kulim , then that person is making a mockery of our Parliament . Worst than a frog .

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  15. The court process must proceed. The presiding judge can impose a RM1 bail as a token in view of international interest on this case.

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  16. The timing of Azizah Resignation is perfect towards Anwar accusation!

    If Anwar was convicted before he can contest, is expected!

    IF Anwar lose the Pemantang Pauh Seats! That would be the NAIL in the coffin for Public Trust in Malaysia System!

    What?? Is this true?

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  17. Wow. The possibility of Ezam contesting in permatang jauh is 50-50. Since Ezam is so eager to have a one-to-one fight with anwar, this would be a tough fight where the venue is a stronghold of PKR previously hold by Azizah. UMNO would leave no choice but to put the best players to compete with the de-factor leader PKR, DSAI.

    It would be very hard for BN to gain a victory for this battle, but if succeed it would be a great lost to the oppositions.

    Regarding on wan azizah, its more on loyalty to her husband than a symbol of love by emptying her seats for her husband way through in the parliament.

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  18. DSAI might want to ractchet up the pressure against his arrest by announcing his intention to contest and on a superficial level this might seems like a smart idea but this is going to backfire and dangerous risk for the self-proclaimed PM in waiting.

    The reason is DSAI already used that card that he is being prosecuted because he wants to wrestle the power from BN. So if he gets charged, there is nothing new that he can come up with to support his claim. People who swayed by this argument would have bought this the first time anywa. His flip-flops and sudden move would not help in supporting his claim.

    The problem will be if he gets charged, BN will use this to maximum effect in the by-election. His credibility and moral leadership will be attacked mercilessly.

    BN knows that Anwar can't be defeated in Permatang Pauh so they will use the opportunity to discredit him. For Anwar, merely winning is no enough, he has to win by a bigger margin, otherwise he is deemed as a failure.

    For Anwar too winning in Permatang Pauh will be meaningless as it would not help him in his quest for the premiership but the price that he has to pay will be heavy.

    I expect UMNO to focus on attacking his opposition to NEP, closeness to the American neocons and the sodomy charges.

    I still feel Anwar has miscalculated and this by-election will be bloody and pay a heavy price even he wins. Nothing less than a bigger majority will be considered a success. Anything less will point to his declining influence and PR's popularity. Of course there is always a chance that he might lose. Depending on how UMNO plays its strategy, this possibility cannot be discounted.

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  19. Anwarista...Yee-Hah2:30 pm, August 01, 2008

    I agree the by-election will likely be bloody.
    Have you considered that BN will pay a heavy price ?
    Anwar winning in Permatang Pauh is not meaningless - it puts him in Parliament, and Anwar Ibrahim in Parliament as leader of the Opposition is going to give BN scary nightmares like they haven't seen before.

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  20. Well, what Anwar can possibly accomplish in the Parliament that he couldn't do it from outside ? In fact I expect DSAI's action would be curtailed if he becomes a MP since he will be accountable as a MP and as the leader of the Opposition. He now has the freedom to do a lot of travel and attending conferences overseas, but being a MP he would not have such luxury.

    We have more intelligent and far more experienced parliamentarians like LKS and Karpal but all they do know is to quote the Standing Order and engage in needless shouting matches and frequent walk-outs.

    With Anwar in the Parliament, the place that has become a zoo recently will be further downgraded into a mud-wrestling arena. The biggest losers of all will be common rakyats like you and me.

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  21. Killer, your statement -

    "Now that the sodomy charge is coming he has no choice but to ask his loyal wife to "sacrifice" since no one else would. For Wan Azizah this is a disgraceful act of putting DSAI's interest above rakayt who voted for her."

    I think you should keep your view to yourself as you have no locus standi in the matter.

    Don't speak for the people of Permatang Pauh. They have a mind of their own andvery likely quite different from yours.

    As for Wan Azizah, she is capable of thinking out things for herself. The cause is bigger then herself and she knows; the people of Permatang Pauh knows it; and we all knows it.

    Are you from UMNO?

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  22. Yo annoyed

    Whether I am from UMNO or from the Mongolian Mud Wresting Association hardly matters, don’t you think ?

    Wan Azizah is not some housewife from Permatang Pauh but the President of PKR, the leader of the Opposition and a senior politician in Malaysia. This is a retrogressive step that augurs poorly for the women of Malaysia as well as for good political principles (I know this is an oxymoronic word). As a Malaysia of voting age and a function brain, I do have the locus standi and right to express my outrage over this act of betryal. Just because you husband wants to be the next PM, you just cannot allow him to walk all over you. This is the 21st century and not the 18th century Saudi Arabia.

    Bigger cause ? Like saving the world from AIDS? Come on, having DSAI in the parliament will benefit no one more than Anwar and PKR.

    Wake up, the election is over. If Anwar wants to get elected, please wait for your turn. I know you are unhappy about the 12th GE result. Well, I got news for you. I am pissed off too, as well as a long list of politicians.

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  23. Corrected version..

    Yo annoyed

    Whether I am from UMNO or from the Mongolian Mud Wresting Association hardly matters, don’t you think ?

    Wan Azizah is not some housewife from Permatang Pauh but the President of PKR, the leader of the Opposition and a senior politician in Malaysia. This is a retrogressive step that augurs poorly for the women of Malaysia as well as for good political principles (I know this is an oxymoronic word). As a Malaysian of voting age and a functioning brain, I do have the locus standi and right to express my outrage over this act of betryal. Just because you husband wants to be the next PM, you cannot allow him to walk all over you like a door mat. This is the 21st century Malaysia and not the 18th century Saudi Arabia.

    Bigger cause ? Like saving the world from AIDS? Come on, having DSAI in the parliament will benefit no one more than Anwar and PKR.

    Wake up, the election is over. If Anwar wants to get elected, please wait for your turn. I know you are unhappy about the 12th GE result. Well, I got news for you. I am pissed off too, as well as a long list of politicians.

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  24. Another one of Anwar's master stroke.

    He says he is going for another vote of no confidence 6 weeks from now,I believe PAS will not back him on this one.

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  25. Anwarista....Yee-Hah6:49 pm, August 01, 2008

    I've got news for BN.
    They can throw in everyting, including the kitchen sink, and they will still lose in Permatang Pauh.

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  26. They can throw in everyting, including the kitchen sink, and they will still lose in Permatang Pauh. But what if they throw in Dollah's stinking underpants?

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  27. Maybe they will sprinkle holy water mixed with Saifol's arse discharge and semen from you know who . The results might come as a shock !!!!

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  28. chaptokam

    It is the people like you who gives the bad rep to the citizens of blogosphere by posting irresponsibly.

    If you have nothing better to say, don't say it at all.

    I guess this is the mindset of the cult called the Anwaristas...

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  29. ^ Actually chaptokam is an anti-Anwar guy, only that he's much less courteous than KT.

    As to reply to why I believe PAS is the weakest link in the Pakatan... one just has to look at what happened in the last few days: PAS was in discussion with UMNO about leaving their allies behind & working with UMNO.

    Although they finally declined UMNO's offers (much to the relief of many), it did worry a lot of people in the PR... both PAS & non-PAS supporters. It shows there exists a formidable faction within the party willing to bite UMNOs bait of promised Malay/Islamic unity & hudud laws.

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  30. BrightEyes said...

    ^ Actually chaptokam is an anti-Anwar guy, only that he's much less courteous than KT.


    Hi BrightEyes , our friend killer got me wrong , he didn't quite got my meaning .

    Maybe I 'll make it this way , UMNO will mixed the concotion of holy water mention above and sprinkle Permatang Pauh with it to neutralise Anwar's Bomohs jampi from mesmerising the people of PP to vote Anwar.

    The results might turn out not in favour of Anwar .

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  31. Here's a nice one . BobbyNZ I think you'll like this one .

    When Dr. Mahathir was Prime Minister of Malaysia

    One lousy day in the middle of the economic crisis, PM Mahathir was feeling extremely frustrated and wondering how a neighboring country can be doing better than Malaysia .
    One of his aides said, I heard that the leaders consult Feng Shui masters to ensure prosperity for the country. Dr Mahathir thought if that was the case, Malaysia Bomoh also can, and
    went to seek the top bomoh's advice in the country.

    After reviewing the case, the bomoh told Dr M that there were 2 things that he must do :

    Bomoh : Step 1. You must blame the crisis on SOROS for everything.
    Dr M : But Why ?

    Bomoh: Because SOROS stands for 'Speculate On Ringgit Or Stocks'.
    You must blame him, and look at ways to control the ringgit and stock market.

    Bomoh : Step 2 - You must get rid of ANWAR.
    Dr M: What! why him ?

    Bomoh: Because ANWAR stands for 'A Nation Without Any Ringgit'.
    Dr M: But how ? This is most difficult to do, he is popular with the people.

    Bomoh : Aiyoh, you bodoh lah! Look at your name, MAHATHIR.
    Make Anwar Homosexual And Then Highlight It Repeatedly

    This one lagi best. The latest according to the trend.

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  32. Another one from me

    Mahathir and Pak Lah both took a helicopter to view the sights of Kuala Lumpur .

    While looking down the nice scenery of KL ,

    Pak Lah said if I throw one million ringgit one dollar bills down now , One million Malaysians down there will be happy .
    Mahathir on hearing that , refuse to be beaten , said I will throw two million one dollar bills down , that should make two million Malaysians Happy .

    The helicopter pilot not happy with both of them , said If I throw BOTH of you down , 22 million Malaysians will celebrate .

    Haha TDM - Throw Down Mahathir

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  33. Killer,

    Your arguments places you inthe category of a very quarelsome person.

    Too much subjectivity and sweeping generalisations. And too personal.

    Doubt if much can be learnt from your arguments.

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  34. Yeah. And quite infantile too. Amin.

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