Umno has more to lose than gain from MN revival, say analysts
7 hours ago
Lynelle Tham
The push to revive Muafakat Nasional is seen as reflecting a PAS strategic need more than a renewed push for Malay-Muslim unity
Umno and PAS formed the Muafakat Nasional alliance in 2019 which collapsed a year later after PAS joined Bersatu in Perikatan Nasional.
PETALING JAYA: Umno stands to lose more than it gains if it agrees to revive the now-defunct Muafakat Nasional alliance for the Johor state election, with analysts saying that such a move would serve PAS’s interests far more than Umno’s.
Hisomuddin Bakar.
Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham Centre said the challenge will arise at the negotiating table, where PAS would seek to contest seats it considers winnable regardless of its track record in the state.
“Umno would have to surrender seats to PAS even though PAS has minimal electoral contribution in Johor. This could raise questions among Umno leaders and grassroots members about the rationale for sharing political space with a party that lacks substantial strength in the state,” he told FMT.
Universiti Malaya analyst Tawfik Yaakub said Umno would be wasting valuable political momentum by accommodating PAS in a state that has once again become a strong Umno stronghold.
Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham Centre said the challenge will arise at the negotiating table, where PAS would seek to contest seats it considers winnable regardless of its track record in the state.
“Umno would have to surrender seats to PAS even though PAS has minimal electoral contribution in Johor. This could raise questions among Umno leaders and grassroots members about the rationale for sharing political space with a party that lacks substantial strength in the state,” he told FMT.
Universiti Malaya analyst Tawfik Yaakub said Umno would be wasting valuable political momentum by accommodating PAS in a state that has once again become a strong Umno stronghold.
Tawfiq Yaakub.
He said Umno could compete for the same pool of Malay-Muslim voters by fielding candidates with strong Islamic credentials rather than relying on PAS.
“Moreover, if Umno-BN wins and governs Johor, it would be in a better position to implement policies that strengthen Islamic values and institutions rather than rely on proposals put forward by PAS that may never be realised,” he said.
The two analysts were commenting on a statement by PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man that the Johor polls presented an opportunity to resurrect MN and rebuild Malay-Muslim political strength.
However, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on Friday that a meeting between PAS and Umno leaders the previous night did not touch on the revival of MN.
The alliance between Umno and PAS was formalised in 2019 when Pakatan Harapan formed the government. The pact eventually fell apart after PAS formed Perikatan Nasional with Bersatu the following year.
Umno-led BN is going solo in the Johor state election, setting up clashes with both its federal ally PH and PN.
BN currently holds 40 of Johor’s 56 assembly seats, a commanding majority secured at the 2022 state election. 33 seats belong to Umno. Of the three seats won by PN that year, only Maharani was a PAS victory.
Asked whether PAS’s push for MN reflected a genuine effort to unite Malay-Muslim voters, both analysts said the move appeared to be driven more by political calculation than principle.
Hisomuddin pointed out that the call comes as PAS’s relationship with Bersatu has become less certain than it once was.
“PAS recognises that Umno is now in a more stable position than it was several years ago when it chose to abandon MN and prioritises its cooperation with Bersatu through Perikatan Nasional.
“In that context, PAS has once again promoted the Malay-Muslim unity narrative as a basis for reopening cooperation with Umno,” he said.
However, he questioned whether PAS would be willing to make similar compromises if MN were revived.
“If PAS is truly sincere about reviving the partnership, would it be willing to give Umno greater space in PAS strongholds such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah? Would PAS be prepared to sacrifice some of its seats to demonstrate a genuine commitment to balanced cooperation?”
Tawfik said it was highly unlikely that PAS would offer concessions in the three states it governs as it is the dominant force in all three states.
He said Umno could compete for the same pool of Malay-Muslim voters by fielding candidates with strong Islamic credentials rather than relying on PAS.
“Moreover, if Umno-BN wins and governs Johor, it would be in a better position to implement policies that strengthen Islamic values and institutions rather than rely on proposals put forward by PAS that may never be realised,” he said.
The two analysts were commenting on a statement by PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man that the Johor polls presented an opportunity to resurrect MN and rebuild Malay-Muslim political strength.
However, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on Friday that a meeting between PAS and Umno leaders the previous night did not touch on the revival of MN.
The alliance between Umno and PAS was formalised in 2019 when Pakatan Harapan formed the government. The pact eventually fell apart after PAS formed Perikatan Nasional with Bersatu the following year.
Umno-led BN is going solo in the Johor state election, setting up clashes with both its federal ally PH and PN.
BN currently holds 40 of Johor’s 56 assembly seats, a commanding majority secured at the 2022 state election. 33 seats belong to Umno. Of the three seats won by PN that year, only Maharani was a PAS victory.
Asked whether PAS’s push for MN reflected a genuine effort to unite Malay-Muslim voters, both analysts said the move appeared to be driven more by political calculation than principle.
Hisomuddin pointed out that the call comes as PAS’s relationship with Bersatu has become less certain than it once was.
“PAS recognises that Umno is now in a more stable position than it was several years ago when it chose to abandon MN and prioritises its cooperation with Bersatu through Perikatan Nasional.
“In that context, PAS has once again promoted the Malay-Muslim unity narrative as a basis for reopening cooperation with Umno,” he said.
However, he questioned whether PAS would be willing to make similar compromises if MN were revived.
“If PAS is truly sincere about reviving the partnership, would it be willing to give Umno greater space in PAS strongholds such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah? Would PAS be prepared to sacrifice some of its seats to demonstrate a genuine commitment to balanced cooperation?”
Tawfik said it was highly unlikely that PAS would offer concessions in the three states it governs as it is the dominant force in all three states.
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