The Sabah state election was not meant to influence federal politics, but…..

Murray Hunter


The Sabah state election was not meant to influence federal politics, but…..

The Sabah election may show just how fragile the ‘unity coalition’ really is


Nov 21, 2025



Picture Bernama


The 17th Sabah state election has become very complex with 569 candidates standing for 73 seats on Saturday 29th November. Some constituencies using first-past-the-post system are 4-way contests going up to 14-way contests. There are 74 independent candidates, 73 from Warisan, 72 from Parti Impian Sabah, 55 from Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) – the current government, 46 from Parti Solidarity Tanah Airku (STAR), 45 from Barisan Nasional (BN), 42 from Perikatan Nasional (PN), 40 from Parti KDM, and 22 from prime minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) (DAP 12 seats and PKR 10 seats).

Any political analyst who claims they can pick the result is just guessing as there is really not reliable polling. There is a paradox between what is happening on the ground and loyalty to old political clans, with Sabah still largely underdeveloped. A large youth cohort making up around one-third of first-time voters and money-politics will certainly influence the outcome. There are parties advocating “Sabah for Sabahans” and peninsula-based parties contesting the election.

However, its expected that the election is really a competition between the ruling GRS with an alliance of 8 parties and Warisan which is running alone. STAR, BN, and PH are expected to make up new coalitions should the results be undecisive on Saturday. This doesn’t factor in post-election defections and party hopping, a feature of Sabah politics.

Sabah politics is largely ‘personality’ driven, rather than policy driven, at least until this election. This time there are a number of factors that may change things. The overall underdevelopment of Sabah is a major issue. The recent court decision giving Sabah the right to 40 percent of the revenue collected in the state is another important issue. The federal government challenging the decision by appeal could have electoral ramifications.

Issues over the MA63 and oil and gas revenues always come up during elections. Ewon’s resignation from the federal cabinet and subsequent withdrawal of his party UPKO from the ‘unity government is another unknown. Scandals around central politicians in the Hajiji Noor GRS government are another issue. The death of Form One student Zara Qairina Mahathir ignited large protests concerning the culture of bullying. Its only last year that students burnt effigies of Anwar Ibrahim in Kota Kinabalu.

However, it must be remembered that no matter which coalition wins on Saturday week, the ‘unity government will not be affected. That’s the aggregate, but underlying the federal coalition are some issues of long-term concern.

The way all the parties have landed on the ground in Sabah shows a split between UMNO and Pakatan Harapan. UMNO is running a completely different campaign to Pakatan Harapan. Its as if this is a testing ground for UMNO with a view to going alone in the upcoming Melaka and Johor state elections. PKR is particularly weak in Sabah currently holding only two seats. PKR was wiped out in the 2021 Melaka state election, and lost six seats in the 2022 Johor state election, today holding only one seat in the state assembly.

With talk of Khairy Jamaluddin returning to the UMNO fold, UMNO is clearly thinking ahead for the general election due in 2027.

UPKO leaving the national ‘unity coalition’ so quickly is an indicator of just how quickly the government can be abandoned. This sends a message for the next general election that no coalition can be assured of support from east Malaysia. East Malaysian support is ‘up for grabs’. The decision by UMNO, although UMNO has a long history in Sabah, to run alone is also a warning for the future that the current political status quo is far from anything permanent.

Things don’t look too promising for the peninsula-based parties. No one can expect a good performance from PN. They are hoping to win seats that UMNO is targeting. UMNO is hoping to return to the dominance it once enjoyed in Sabah, but that might be a dream just too far away. Potentially, any wipe-out of PKR would be disaster on October 29. PKR have parachuted in a number of locally prominent candidates, with some anger coming from the grassroots. If PKR stumbles, UMNO would be much more confident of going alone in the future.

From the federal point of view, it will be the UMNO-PH nexus that is created after the election that will be important. This will be a telling sign for the life expectancy of ‘unity coalition’ past GE16.

My coming court case on December 21st poses the question about when fair journalism becomes defamation. Every journalist should be concerned.